Post-season outlook (Bracketology / seeding)

Discussion in 'Women’s Basketball' started by Moooooo, Feb 27, 2015.

  1. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    Decided to start a thread to discuss our post-season possibilities. Obviously, winning our remaining two regular season games against WVU and TCU is very important for our conference tourney seeding and NCAA tourney seeding. WVU and TCU are fighting or the NCAA tourney lives, to I expect their best efforts, especially by WVU in Morgantown on Sunday. We haven't fared well on Sundays during conference season.

    Despite being tied with 3 other teams (OSU, ISU, and TCU), some have said that winning both regular season games could be mean a #3 seed in the Big 12 tourney in Dallas; not sure if that means we control our own destiny or not.

    Remaining games for our competition:

    ISU -- Baylor; @Kansas
    TCU -- Kansas State; @Texas
    OSU -- @Texas Tech; Oklahoma

    If we somehow end up tied for 3rd with ISU (and no one else), they own the tie-breaker against us since they swept us this season. If we can beat TCU, and end up tied with them and OSU, and we split our games with those teams, then perhaps that works out better for us.

    As for the NCAA tourney, Crème had us slotted for a #8 seed; that was as of 02/23/2015, and prior to our win over OSU. Very important to get out of that 8/9 seed to avoid having to face a #1 national seed on their home court in the second round if we won our first-round game.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncw/bracketology


    RPI-wise, we are currently #21. That is a great place to be at the moment.

    http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-women/d1/ncaa-womens-basketball-rpi


    Our wins over Tennessee, Stanford, A&M, and Oklahoma definitely help us, and having those teams continue to win helps us. OU recently beat #3 Baylor. Stanford upset #7 Oregon State last night, but A&M lost to an awful Mizzou team at home. Still, that loss potentially knocks A&M out of hosting a sub-regional (but, that changes daily).

    http://espn.go.com/womens-college-b...8/trio-upsets-thursday-shake-top-bracketology


    Bottom line -- win games and improve our position.
     
  2. BabHorn

    BabHorn 10,000+ Posts

    I agree that winning out will not guarantee the 3rd place slot for Texas but winning out will put us in position to grab that slot if the other games go as expected--ISU loses to Baylor (expected) and OSU loses to OU (hoping for this one). Win out and we will take care of TCU. With a little help from the top two teams, we could certainly end up third.

    Right now, I have to think that Texas is a 7-8 seed. Win the next two, win at least 2 in the Big 12 and we could end up as high as 5-6 with an outright Big 12 tournament title just maybe being the push needed to get us into one of the last spots to host the first two rounds. I am not expecting that but do want to avoid that 8-9 matchup for the more favorable matchups that being ranked in the 4-6 seeds would bring.
     
  3. BBV_Horn

    BBV_Horn 1,000+ Posts

    I like your thinking....I think this is very possible!!
    :yippee::hookem2:
     
  4. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    I thought RPI was a huge factor in determining the seeds. Crème has a bunch of teams (Ohio State, Minnesota, Syracuse, Mississippi State, Washington, California, Rutgers, South Florida, etc.) with worse RPI ratings than Texas seeded higher.

    Obviously, if we don't win tomorrow at WVU, then dissecting his bracket seedings too much isn't really necessary just yet.
     
  5. BabHorn

    BabHorn 10,000+ Posts

    We just have to keep winning. I think our RPI and SOS are in good shape. Some of those teams ahead of us will knock each other off during the rest of the season and in conference tournament play.
     
  6. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    I think we are out of the 8/9 seed now after beating OU. I'm thinking a #6 seed would be great. Not sure if the committee will take into account that our wins over Stanford, Tennessee, and A&M were with Nneka, and we no longer have her services.
     
  7. BabHorn

    BabHorn 10,000+ Posts

    other teams also have injuries, i.e., Tenn has lost Harrison. So I would hope that those wins would count as would our RPI and SOS.
     
  8. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    Not sure if I'm understanding this "entire" thread, but it does mention that not having a regular season conference winning record is what is knocking us down:

    http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?t=83760&sid=1ebe8fba78161fb23babdabc546f5766

    I was wondering why so many teams (Cal, Ohio State, Washington, etc.) were seeded higher than us by Crème despite worse RPIs, so perhaps that is the reason. I believe they all have winning conference records.
     
  9. UTExinPDX

    UTExinPDX 1,000+ Posts

    Creme bumped Texas to a 6 seed in his latest predictions. They would be playing in Corvallis.
     
  10. utfannforlife

    utfannforlife 1,000+ Posts

    predictions for UT in the tournament have notoriously been wrong by Creme. I don't see how we're any worse than a 6 seed. The committee surely see's that we're closer to the 13-0 team than the 9-9 conference team. Further more, I hope that we're in the Lville regional which would allow us to host which increases our sweet 16 chances EXPONENTIALLY.
     
  11. overseasbbfan1

    overseasbbfan1 1,000+ Posts

    Crème has moved us up to 6, has Washington as a 6 also, Ohio State as a 5 and Cal as a top 4 seed. But the NCAA's own RPI has us ahead of all of those teams; I don't think you'll see any of these squads seeded ahead of us in the tourney. I would guess CAL is closest, they might have the same seed as the Horns, but my guess is a spot lower. Stanford's PAC 12 tourney crown likely moves them into top 4 seed territory, which hurts the Horns chances a bit. Though I think we get the nod over the Cardinal if we win tonight vs. the Bears. Not only did we beat Stanford, what really hurts them is their loss to RPI #214 Arizona. The committee looks closely at bad losses when deciding seeds, and going down to a team outside the top 200 is about as bad as it gets. The Horns worst loss is to RPI #76, a huge difference. If the Horns win the Big 12 tourney I could see both us and the Cardinal as 4 seeds, but if comes down to one or the other in that scenario, I can't see any way Stanford gets a 4 spot over us.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2015
  12. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    I also think we're no worse than a #6 seed. RPI has not been updated yet.

    Doesn't look like TCU is going to get in. Don't think they did anything in non-conference to really put themselves in the tourney.
     
  13. caryhorn

    caryhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Congrats on an outstanding run. Here's to kicking BU in the gut!! Go HORNS!!
     
  14. overseasbbfan1

    overseasbbfan1 1,000+ Posts

    Agree about TCU. I feel bad for the Frogs but I think they surprised everyone, including themselves, with a top 3 conference finish. They did what a lot of teams, esp those in tougher leagues, do in their first season under a new coach. Their pre-conference schedule was a little light so players could adjust to a new system, build confidence etc. As it is they were probably on track for an invite until those consecutive losses to the Horns to end their season. But definitely no complaints about how those contests turned out!

    RPI has been updated and the Horns are 21st. If you look at the current NCAA RPI, I think the top 10 teams are definitely set as top 3 seeds. It gets a little more interesting from there. There would be two 3 seeds, and all of the 4 seeds remaining, all of which I think will come from the squads currently 11th-21st in the RPI. That's 11 teams vying for 6 spots in the top 4 groups, and there are always some surprises in this range when seedings are announced. Those 11 in current RPI order are George Washington, Dayton, FGCU, Princeton, Duke, ASU, UNC, Oregon State, Stanford, Chattanooga and Texas. What makes it interesting is that there is obviously a lot of discrepancy between conferences, and schedule strength. Some teams have great records, and perhaps a signature win, but pretty weak schedules overall (Princeton 28-0/SOS 108, FGCU 28-2/SOS 79, Chattanooga 29-3/SOS 75). It's really hard to predict how the committee is going to look at all of this, but 7 of the 11 teams in the mix for those 3 and 4 seed spots have a SOS below 40. The others are all top 15. The Horns have a lot going for them in terms of the things the committee looks at, but obviously a win tonight would all but guarantee them a top 4 seed, IMO. My picks for 5 of those 6 spots are GW, Dayton, Duke, Oregon State and Stanford.

    Regarding another point made earlier, I don't think conference records matter all that much, or not as much as where teams finish in the league standings. For instance, Stanford, Cal and Texas all tied for 3rd in their respective conferences, but the first two were 13-5 in the Pac 12 and the Horns 9-9 in the Big 12. But the Big 12 is currently 1st in conference RPI and the PAC is down at 5th. For most of the year, every squad in the Big 12 was inside the top 100, with KS and TT falling outside the last game or two of the season. The PAC had 5 squads outside the top 100 for most of the year, and currently have five 93rd or below. And some of these are way outside (179th, 214th and 238th). So a 13-5 PAC record is probably equivalent to a 9-9 Big 12 record...and why squads with those records in each league finished at the same spot in the standings. That's what I find strange about Creme's bracketology. He currently has 3 PAC 12 teams (conference RPI 5th) as top 4 seeds and just one top 4 from the Big 12 (conf RPI 1st). I do think if the Horns lose tonight there's a chance Baylor will be the sole top 4 from our league, but I just don't see how the PAC gets three if the committee looks at the same things they have in the past.
     
  15. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    Thought I read somewhere that despite Dayton's very high RPI, they don't have that signature win on their resume, and that could keep them from being a top 16 national seed. Could be wrong.
     
  16. overseasbbfan1

    overseasbbfan1 1,000+ Posts

    You're right about Dayton, I just went and looked at their schedule and definitely no signature wins. Their losses weren't bad; GW/RPI 11th (3 losses), Iowa/RPI 9, Gonzaga/RPI 37, Washington St/RPI 70. When you look at the caliber of teams they played, and the three losses to GW, it's a little hard to understand how they're just one spot behind GW in the RPI. Their best OOC wins were Green Bay/RPI 25 and Vanderbilt/63. The other 4 OOC wins were all 130-265 RPI range. Hardly the resume of a top 4 seed, so I guess I should revise my picks above. I think that's why you could see the Horns and Cardinal both as top 4 seeds, even though they're just outside that range in the current RPI. When you begin to look at signature wins, SOS, bad losses etc, there are a significant number in that group just ahead of both squads in the RPI that look questionable, or that could easily drop down to a 5th or 6th seed. And the more I think about it, I don't see how you take Stanford as a top 4 and not the Horns, even if we lose tonight. A conference tourney win vs. finals appearance for the Horns shouldn't be enough to give them the nod, even though I thought it might be in my comments above. We know the committee puts a lot more emphasis on reg season conference standings than they do on tourney results...that's why everyone still has Oregon State seeded above CAL, even though OSU lost in the PAC quarterfinals to 9th seed/RPI 90 Colorado. Horns and Cardinal both finished 3rd in conference, and had similar signature wins. But we won the head-to-head, and had no bad losses...worst was RPI 76, while Stanford lost to RPI 214. Not sure how you take them and not us regardless of what happens tonight. Unless of course neither of us gets a top 4 seed....sure hope that doesn't happen!
     
  17. BabHorn

    BabHorn 10,000+ Posts

    man, I am glad others have a better understanding of the possible rankings. I am lost there. Still think we will be at least a 6 seed with getting to the finals. Possible 4-5 with a win.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. overseasbbfan1

    overseasbbfan1 1,000+ Posts

    I wonder how the committee even compares certain teams. After Mooooo brought up Dayton, I also went and looked at undefeated Princeton's schedule. They didn't play a single game against an RPI top 25 team, whereas Texas will have played 8 top 25 contests after tonight's matchup (and 20 contests vs. teams RPI 77 and higher). In fact, the highest rated matchup for Princeton is current RPI #40. It is really possible for a team with that type of schedule to even be considered for a top 4 seed? Perhaps quite a few of the teams we think are in the mix for those top seeds really aren't under consideration after all. Oh well all will be known a week from today.
     
  19. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    Now a #6 seed as of 03/10. That's where I think we'll be.
     
  20. BabHorn

    BabHorn 10,000+ Posts

    that seeding would be good. As someone mentioned, depending on the regional, say Louisville, we might host. Regardless, it's a nice jump over the past few weeks.
     
  21. BabHorn

    BabHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Selection Monday will be this coming Monday. March 16, at 7PM EST or 6PM CST. It will be televised on ESPN. :hookem:
     
  22. BabHorn

    BabHorn 10,000+ Posts

    with little news in the world of CWBB:
    Some projections by various sites:

    College Sports Madness—updated 03/12/15
    http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/womens-basketball/bracketology

    Baylor—#2 seed
    OU—#6 seed
    Texas—#9 seed
    OSU—#10 seed
    ISU—#12 seed

    ESPN (Charlie Crème)—updated 03/12/15
    http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

    BU—#2 seed
    OU—#6 seed
    Texas—#6 seed
    OSU—#10 seed
    ISU—#12 seed

    *among the first four out: TCU & WVU

    RealTimeRPI.com Bracket Projections
    http://realtimerpi.com/bracketology/bracketology_Women.html

    Baylor—#1 seed
    OU—#6 seed
    Texas—#7 seed
    ISU—#11 seed
    OSU—#11 seed
    TCU—#13 seed

    NCAA interactive and printable bracket
    http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/basketball-women/d1

    (currently blank)
     
  23. BBV_Horn

    BBV_Horn 1,000+ Posts

    How can OU be a #6 seed and us a #7 since we beat the TWICE?
    Well, I guess their B12 record was better...:angry:

    :hookem2:
     
  24. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    It's kind of interesting when you compare Texas to OU, and Texas to TCU.

    From a non-conference perspective, none of the other teams have wins that compare to our wins over Stanford, Tennessee, and A&M. But, Kara Lawson stated after the Big 12 championship (when asked about Texas' potential seed) that it will depend how the committee views those wins as they were with Nneka, and now she's not playing. To me, some of those wins were without Imani, and now she is playing. So, perhaps that evens it out.

    TCU's best win may have been against us in Fort Worth. But, they finished tied for 3rd in the Big 12 regular season. Still, if you look at the entire season's body of work, I don't think they did enough to get in the tourney.

    OU had a disappointing non-conference season; but, they finished in 2nd place in the Big 12. Their best win is against Baylor; after that, it might be against us. Strangely, their season was almost opposite of ours. But, we were still good enough to beat them twice. OU has a really bad loss against Kansas at home late in the season. Our worst loss may have been at KSU or at WVU, although they are in the final 8 left out of the tourney.

    I won't be surprised if we end up with a better seed than OU; both teams have similar RPI's. I would assume our SOS is better than theirs, but not certain.

    We may never know the rationale for the committee's decisions. So, all you can is play the cards that are dealt to you.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2015
  25. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    Criteria:

    [​IMG]
     
  26. utfannforlife

    utfannforlife 1,000+ Posts

    Looking at the criteria, the only thing we dont score an "above average" mark is the conference record. Everything else we'd fall into the top 20. A 4-5 seed is not as much of a stretch as I thought. Is it just me, or would anyone else like to see us fall into the Lville bracket and play them at home, as opposed to going to Corvallis?

    Just a thought
     
  27. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    I get the feeling conference W/L record is going to play a big role. Perhaps are 2 tourney wins are factoredd in to make our conference record 11-10 instead of 9-9/

    In the men's bracket yesterday, the Texas men received a worse seed than LSU and Indiana. The only area where those teams better-performed than Texas was conference W/L record, I believe.

    I don't see Louisville being any worse than a #2 seed; so, the host would need to be a #7 seed. Assuming that #7 seed isn't an ACC team (like Louisville), I could see the host being someone that had drawn well attendance-wise this season; unfortunately, we haven't.

    http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12491650/what-look-selection-monday
     
  28. overseasbbfan1

    overseasbbfan1 1,000+ Posts

    #5 seed. Almost got that 4 spot, but great job considering the loss of Nneka. Pretty decent 2nd round potential matchup with CAL, but UCONN in the Sweet 16....love it!
     
  29. Moooooo

    Moooooo 5,000+ Posts

    A #5 seed is well-deserved. Would have been better off as the #6 seed in order to host as Louisville could not. We will face #12 seed Western Kentucky at 4:20 PM CST on Friday.

    I don't think Cal has the home court advantage that some other teams do; but, we will still need to fly two time zones away to begin the tourney. Winning two would be great in order to get to Albany, NY.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2015
  30. rattfatt

    rattfatt 500+ Posts

    I think the draw is okay. If we can get past Western Kentucky, Cal will be a tough game for us. We match up well with Gray inside but I think they have the advantage when it comes to size and athleticism on the perimeter. Cal is not a great shooting team but their guards and perimeter players are very good, especially Brittany Boyd.
     
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