Way too early republican primary thread

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Larry T Spider, Jun 2, 2015.

  1. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Nash,

    The problem I have with this mindset is that it makes future generations bear the burden of our inability to bring down government spending. If we're borrowing money for day-to-day operations (as opposed to capital expenditures like roads and infrastructure) or emergencies and don't have the political resolve to cut spending, then yes, we are collectively undertaxed. We should have to pay for the government we demand. Any other approach tolerates trans-generational theft. If spending isn't cut, then I'd rather face a tax increase than steal it from my 16-month old son who had no say in the matter and derived no benefit from it.
     
  2. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    I think that, except for our legislature, no person believes the burden we are putting onto the lives of my (our) grandchildren to be fair, nor honest.
    I just feel if we enjoyed a legislature with any sense of fiscal responsibility revenue is not the problem, spending - both discretionary and nondiscretionary - is. To be sure I do feel there is a complete tax over-haul needed. I do not think this should be passed onto my grandkids but my solution is to force, somehow, the idiots to remove the absurd spending habits/policies. Because this responsible behavior is so foreign in today's Congress I say a third party may well be the only solution. Stranger things have happened, who'd have thought we'd get the Supremes sanctioning same sex marriage and saying words in a law don't matter just a few years ago?
     
  3. Larry T Spider

    Larry T Spider 100+ Posts

    So it's been a while but I thought this might be an interesting time to bump the thread. No real news with the Donald stealing headlines. Bush continues to do better than I thought. Anybody have opinions or predictions about where this is going? I honestly have no idea but the thought of Clinton/bush makes me sick.
     
  4. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    I think the nomination comes down to the electable candidate (gulp!) Jeb Bush and the Tea Party favorite Ted Cruz. This is a tough choice for the Republicans. The extreme definitely wants and ideologue but know they can't win in a general election, even when the deck is stacked in their favor. So, they send their message in the primaries through a strong showing by Cruz. He's the only one without major warts that could fit that ideologue label.
     
  5. HornHuskerDad

    HornHuskerDad 5,000+ Posts

    Maybe we should demand less government.
     
  6. Larry T Spider

    Larry T Spider 100+ Posts

    Why not both?
     
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  7. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    We should, but that's not really the issue. The issue is what happens when we lose the battle to demand less. For the most part, the GOP's priority has been to avoid tax increases at all costs and above all other priorities, even if it means running up big deficits. I think that is unfair to the next generation. Furthermore, I think that a big reason why it's hard to build public support to cut spending is that the public doesn't have to pay for it. Make them pay for it, and they'll think twice before creating new government programs. I think that's a big reason why state governments with balanced budget requirements tend to have more fiscal restraint than the federal government does.
     
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  8. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I'm not a fan, but it makes me less sick than Clinton/Trump.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 13, 2015
  9. NJlonghorn

    NJlonghorn 2,500+ Posts

    Bingo. Great post, Deez.
     
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  10. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Great article on John Kasich. Why some people have a big hard-on for Donald Trump while Kasich barely registers in the polls shows what's wrong with politics (especially Republican politics) nowadays. Trump is a smack-talking lowlife, and Kasich is a decent man of accomplishment. He balanced the friggin' budget.
     
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  11. Crockett

    Crockett 5,000+ Posts

    My mind wandered as I watched Trump say he was for honoring war heroes who didn't get captured. I wonder how well he'd do if his pivate jet was hit with a SAM, both arms and a leg broken and armed hostiles pulled him out of the water after he almost drown. Personally, I think Trump could bluster his way out of problems or pull an Iron Man and jet out of there is a space age suit. What do you think? Too bad the services lost a soldier of Trump's caliber because he had to stay home and attend college while courageously battling a bone spur.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 21, 2015
  12. NJlonghorn

    NJlonghorn 2,500+ Posts

    lol, well said
     
  13. 56 Bells

    56 Bells 500+ Posts

    Why is no one talking about Rickie Perry?
    Do you think his glasses are half full or half empty?
     
  14. Crockett

    Crockett 5,000+ Posts

    Right now, based on national opinion polls, it looks like Perry gets the 10th spot in the debates. I'm guessing the 9 candidates above him are hoping he hangs on. Based on history, Perry will keep the debates entertaining. I don't think he'll be a deer in the headlights this time because he has practiced a lot and isn't on serious pain meds. But he's still working with a slower chip and less RAM than most other presidential contenders, so he's as likely to say some things that will be perceived as proof of stupidity.
     
  15. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Because he has been discussed ad nauseum on this forum for years, and he's a known commodity. We all pretty much know he's a fraud.

    And the hipster glasses are more like 3/4 empty.
     
  16. Crockett

    Crockett 5,000+ Posts

    By the way, in politics, saying something perceived as stupid is just about as damaging as saying something stupid. In the 1976 presidential debate, Gerald Ford took issue with a question that assumed the Soviet Union dominated Eastern Europe. Everyone (including me as a high school senior and Jimmy Carter) "knew" that the Soviet Union dominated Eastern Europe and felt intellectually superior. Turns out Ford knew something we didn't, but he was out of office long before he got credit for it.
     
  17. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    With Kasich entering, no way Aggy remains in top 10. Much like in football, big expectations before the season starts with a big flame out once the real whistle blows.
     
  18. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

  19. Larry T Spider

    Larry T Spider 100+ Posts

    I'm hoping that the Donald has a lot of conservatives rethinking their support for loudmouth bomb throwing candidates and open up to a guy like kasich that can actually get something done.
     
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  20. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    Can Kasich be heard amidst all the noise of the rightwing blowhards? I certainly hope so. He's someone that could potentially get my vote.
     
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  21. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I've thought about that theory, but I'm not so sure. It can backfire pretty badly and pretty easily in the primary. A large part of the GOP primary base likes Trump's style. If he starts to make progress in the polls (which he clearly is), it will eventually put pressure on the other candidates to start acting more like he does to win the primary. Suppose that happens, and one of the other candidates wins after chasing Trump's voters. He'll have to spend the general election season explaining whether or not he actually thinks most Mexicans are rapists, while still saying enough bad things about them to keep Trump's old supporters motivated to show up.

    Even worse, what if Trump suspects that foul play or some other type of unfairness leads to him being denied the nomination? If that happens, he'll run as an independent in the general election, which will surely doom the GOP. HRC might even carry Texas in that scenario. That's why I suspect that if there is a conspiracy going on with Trump, HRC is driving it.
     
  22. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Interesting article on how and why Rand Paul's candidacy is fizzling out. Basically, he has made too many compromises to mainstream GOP voters, which makes him the same as the other candidates while at the same time alienating the old school Ron Paul warriors. Probably a lot of truth to this.
     
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  23. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Looks like the debate stages is set, and Kasich will be there. Link. Rick Fairy won't be.
     
  24. Larry T Spider

    Larry T Spider 100+ Posts

    For those of you that like politics and gambling.

    Bush +120
    Rubio +300
    Trump +500
    Walker +600
    Paul +700
    Cruz +800
    Kasich +900
    Huckabee +1000
    Christie +1200
    Carson +2000
    Jindal +3000
    Santorum +3500
    Perry +4000
    Fiorina +5000
    Graham +8000

    I went with Rubio and walker for a certain amount and kasich for half of that amount.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  25. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    My money is still on Bush. Hasn't Rubio been struggling mightily with fundraising?
     
  26. Larry T Spider

    Larry T Spider 100+ Posts

    Bush deserves to be the favorite with his money and connections. But I'm not taking anybody at +120 this early.

    FWIW, hrc is a 50/50 shot at being the next president according to the book makers.
     
  27. chango

    chango 2,500+ Posts

    Just read this about recent Kasich speech... I'm going to start paying attention to this guy.

    As he often does, Kasich devoted a significant portion of his remarks to those living "in the shadows" of society. He promised to help the mentally ill and drug addicts who end up in prisons and the working poor who don't have health care.

    "I don't know how the Republican Party ever got itself put in the trick bag by somehow saying that if we care about people who are down and out, and we want to give them a chance to succeed, then somehow that's not conservative," Kasich said. "I think conservatism is about giving everybody a chance — demanding personal responsibility — but allowing people to pursue their God-given purpose is conservative."

    He continued: "Hopefully in the course of all this, I'll begin to change some of the thinking about what it means to be a conservative."
     
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  28. Larry T Spider

    Larry T Spider 100+ Posts

    I'm telling you, the guy would be a great president. He's the only one in the field that I can get excited about. The problem is that his brand of politics doesn't excite the base as much as the fire breathers and **** flingers.
     
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  29. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    He's actually dropping per the most recent polls. Meanwhile, Cruz gained 6-7 points, Carson gained a few, and inexplicably Trump gained a point. Either the polling services are purposely skewed to the **** flingers OR the fringe right is growing and they don't care about politicians with successful track records. That one thing is clear is that deal makers are not allowed. There is no interest in any positions other than what they hold. This is one reason that Cruz is also moving up. He and Trump both seem to think they can govern by fiat and bravado.
     
  30. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I don't think the polling services are skewed to the **** flingers. I think the **** flingers are getting more and more numerous in the GOP primary electorate, which is how a guy like Kasich gets framed as a moderate, which is what's hurting him in the polls. A true moderate Republican during his tenure would have been someone like Olympia Snowe. Kasich is a conservative and was part of the conservative wing of the GOP. Hell, he was Newt Gingrich's Budget Committee Chairman. Moderates didn't get appointed to that type of leadership position under Gingrich. However, he's not a **** flinger. He's a problem-solver, which is what the country really needs.

    To put Kasich's record into context, he chaired the Budget Committee from January 1995 - January 2001 (didn't seek reelection in 2000), which means he had control over the budgets from 1996 - 2001 (in bold). Here are the budget deficits before, during, and after his tenure.

    1990 - $221B deficit
    1991 - $269B deficit
    1992 - $290B deficit
    1993 - $255B deficit
    1994 - $203B deficit
    1995 - $164B deficit
    1996 - $107B deficit
    1997 - $22B deficit
    1998 - $69B surplus
    1999 - $126B surplus
    2000 - $236B surplus
    2001 - $128B surplus

    2002 - $158B deficit
    2003 - $378B deficit
    2004 - $413B deficit
    2005 - $318B deficit

    As Chairman, Kasich was the architect of those budgets and one of the chief negotiators with the Senate and with White House, and even before he was chairman, he offered alternative budgets that were far better than what became law. Furthermore, Kasich did this while the Pentagon was mostly having its budget increased (reversing the cuts enacted by the first two years of the Clinton Administration) and while taxes were being reduced. His fiscal management was truly a work of mastery, and I really don't see how anyone could not be impressed. However, the current GOP just doesn't give a damn about real accomplishments. It's all about who can fling more **** and who can fling it further and harder. Kasich just doesn't do a whole lot of that. All he does is balance budgets when no one thinks it's possible.

    One other thing, there is a time for passionate and even combative debate. However, if you do that all the time, nobody takes you seriously, because it's obviously just a rap. If Ted Cruz gets into a frenzy about something, everybody knows that it's just Ted Cruz being Ted Cruz. Back in the early to mid '90s when I was C-SPAN junkie, I remember seeing Kasich debating the budget. He was a fierce debater and got very passionate at times. However, because he directed his passion to the policies at issue rather than people and because he didn't do it every time he opened his mouth, people took it seriously when he did.
     
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