The Declining Marginal Value of Crazy

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Driver 8, Aug 4, 2015.

  1. Driver 8

    Driver 8 Amor Fati

    From this Talking Points Memo article about Trump, by Josh Marshall.

    "In the economics of Crazy, there is purity and volume. Trump has brought to market a purer and more widely deployable product. He has also radically increased volume. [...] That novelty and lack of normal political constraints is what is allowing him to run circles around his competitors who had hoped to play in the Crazy space. Showmanship, lack of touch with reality, and a palpable handle on the grievance and unrestrained self-assertion that is at the center of modern Republican base politics have made Trump, for now, almost impossible to outdo in a crowded field."

    Is it enough to "bring the crazy" and be taken seriously as a candidate?
     
  2. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    In a primary election, "bringing the crazy" works pretty well. In a general election, it doesn't work so well.
     
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  3. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts


    Could it be possible to ride crazy to the Republican nomination though? I personally don't think so but Trump seems to be worried based on his "if the Republican Party treats me right" rhetoric about running as a 3rd party candidate. This question has to keep Rince Priebus up at night. Should The Donald start winning delegates towards the nomination I'd expect the Republican Party would need to devote resources to taking him out. For sure the Koch brothers would. Could this create an out and out civil war in the Republican Party? As an outsider, the Tea Party element seems to be hell bent on being inflexible. If they ultimately back Trump and the "establishment" feels he can't win, what to do? This is dangerous territory for the Republicans.
     
  4. Sangre Naranjada

    Sangre Naranjada 10,000+ Posts

    It is dangerous territory for the establishment, old guard Republicans, to be sure.
     
  5. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    As you often do, you're raising several good points for discussion. My guess is that Trump won't win the nomination. Even a lot of conservative Republicans know how nutty he is. Basically, lower and lower middle class white Republicans like Trump a lot (ironic given that Trump grew up at least as privileged and away from middle class people as Mitt Romney did), and the rest of the party doesn't. The upper and middle class Republicans don't, and of course, Hispanic Republicans don't either. Though there aren't tons of Hispanic Republicans, there are enough to matter, and smart white Republicans care what they think.

    It scares the living hell out of Priebus. How could it not? With HRC on the ropes and with poll numbers slumping and getting worse the more people learn about her, he knows he has a real chance to regain the White House. However, he also knows that Trump has the power to blow it. If he runs as an Independent, the GOP will get routed in the electoral college. It will be a disaster for them. (NOTE - If he does this, don't be surprised if there's a stealth movement among Republicans to draw Bernie Sanders into the race as an Independent, which would cancel out Trump and then some.)

    That's a tough dilemma. If they do that, it'll push him much further toward running as an Independent, and even if he opts not to, it'll drive an extremely deep divide into the party. As much as I don't like Trump, I think the Party does better with him as the nominee (and presumably losing the election) or getting some delegates but losing the nomination fair and square than with covertly taking him out and causing a big piece of the base to essentially bolt the Party.

    It might destroy the Tea Party, which relies heavily on the Koch Bros for money. The Koch Bros would want to take out Trump, because he's not a fiscal conservative (supports tax increases and opposes entitlement reform) and isn't pro-illegal immigration (obviously). However, Tea Partiers probably care more about illegal immigration than they do about entitlement reform and taxes, especially with Trump couching his positions on taxes and spending in economic nationalism rather than in Left-wing social justice as Democrats do. (Remember, imagery and feelings drive voters more than real policy does, and that's as true in the GOP as it is in the Democratic Party.) Some Tea Partiers will oppose Trump to keep the Koch money, while others will support Trump out of ideological commitment to stop illegal immigration, leading to a division within the movement.
     
  6. ProdigalHorn

    ProdigalHorn 10,000+ Posts

    My personal theory on this - and that's all it is - is that Trump is getting high numbers right now because it really doesn't matter. People aren't stupid (usually). They know these polls don't elect anyone. But they do send messages, and I think you're seeing responses from people who are just irritated that they feel as if no one is speaking for them. Trump is many conservatives' way of venting - he throws out a bunch of hyperbolic sound bytes, and everyone gets fired up over them and loves that the "establishment" is made uncomfortable by all this.

    I suspect once the debates start, and people start pressing him for actual solutions, those numbers are going to come back down to earth.
     
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  7. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    I am in agreement with Prod to a large degree. It comes as no surprise to me that Trump is polling better than any of the other 'politicians'. I think his numbers reflect the overall public disgust with the entire system and its dismal performance, regardless of party. The GOP has failed miserably in doing anything it said it would and cowers to Obama over any issue of controversy. People in general are sick of it and like hearing someone calling those idiots; idiots.
    But I do think, once the debates get going, Trump will get deflated in short order. We'll see.
     
  8. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    It's popular in conservative circles to say this, but I've never heard anything specific. What major initiative has Obama forced through Congress since the GOP took control of Congress? On what issue have they cowered, and what should they have done differently? And be specific. Don't just say, "they should have been tougher."
     
  9. Dionysus

    Dionysus Idoit Admin

    This sounds about right to me as well. It’s relatively safe to get behind crazy at this point.
     
  10. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    The Tea Party may be at its zenith in terms of power at this moment. That feeling of giving the bird to the establishment is very real and palpable for them. Ted Cruz in particular has ridden their wave to prominence. Now he's being out-hyperbolized by Trump. When Trump inevitably falls in the polls (all the early leaders do historically) will the Tea Party default back to Cruz? Clearly the establishment is already lining up behind Jeb based on his fundraising to date.
     
  11. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    I cannot think of anything that has been defunded, not executive order nor legislation; immigration, nor Obamacare. From the Internet to trade, whatever he was pushing it has gotten through. They couldn't even come up with wording sufficient to pass something directed to defund the horrific stories surrounding Planned Parenthood. "They should have been tougher", sorry I couldn't help myself.
     
  12. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    nashhorn- Do you consider yourself to be part of the Tea Party?
     
  13. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Ha, don't really mind the question because while I undeniably believe I (we) are Taxed Enough Already I do not belong to the TEA party - they seem too inflexible on many levels. But my frustration runs deep and against both parties. IMHO the single most outstanding predicament facing us today is our damning deficit. Damming would fit better.
     
  14. Clean

    Clean 5,000+ Posts

    The Tea Party has got to be the most overblown political "movement" in history. It was just a populist movement born to oppose Obama's sweeping, big government agenda, composed of loosely related groups under the banner "Tea Party". Their ability to influence a national election is minimal. There's still 600 chapters according to Wiki (down from a high of 1,000), which mostly focus on local issues, not national issues.

    Far from "being at its zenith" its been on the decline since 2010. Its become a Leftist boogey man used to scare the base and blame everything on that they don't blame on Bush. It's the Left's Illuminati and Trilateral Commission rolled into one.
     
  15. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Nash,

    What you've provided is a policy wishlist. I'm talking about a political strategy for making that happen without the White House and without the Senate (until January 2015 and even now without a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate). Many conservatives just gloss over that fact and assume that if John Boehner would have just "manned up," he could have forced Reid and Obama to do what he wanted to merely by the power of his will. Poltiics doesn't work like that and never has.

    And what exactly has Obama gotten passed since 2011? Yes, he got trade authority, but that wasn't a fight. The GOP wanted to give it to him. They were on the same side. Some of his agencies have enacted controversial regulations, but Congress has little control over that. The remedy for stopping overreaching regulations (meaning regulations that go beyond the legal authority delegated to the agency that enacted the regulations) is through the court system. That's a big reason why Senate Republicans held up a lot of Obama's DC Circuit nominees.

    The bottom line is that you have to win elections to get what you want, and you have to win total control to get everything you want.
     
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