Sadly, I have to agree. Unfortunately, the sunk cost fallacy may cripple the program, support from alumni, and recruiting.
To clarify a couple of stats in above post, "Akers had losing seasons at the end." Actually, Akers' record at UT: 1977, 11–1, 0.92 1978, 9–3, 0.75 1979, 9–3, 0.75 1980, 7–5, 0.58 1981, 10–1–1, 0.88 1982, 9–3, .075 1983, 11–1, 0.92 1984, 7–4–1, 0.63 1985, 8–4, 0.67 1986, 5–6, 0.45 His only losing record was his last at 5-6. 1st 9 years with winning records, have ONE losing season, fired. And remember, DKR never had a losing season at UT; he stepped down after a 5-5-1 season, needing that last game victory over piggy in Austin to secure a "no-loss" season. It was rumored around Austin that Frank Erwin and the Board of Regents were already making moves to fire DKR around mid-season. -------- "DKR went 6-4, 7-4 and 6-4 in-between national titles. When you have a winning coach, you do not fire him after 3 seasons of 8 wins or more." A more correct metric of evaluating a coaching performance is W/L percentage, NOT total wins, since number of games played varies from year to year and has been steadily increasing from the DKR era of about 10/yr to about 13+/yr at present. More games played, better chance of winning 8 games. To compare those "down, interim years" of DKR's vs. Browns late career "slump": 1965, 6-4, 0.60 1966, 7-4, 0.64 1967, 6-4, 0.60 1968, 9-1-1, 0.86 (ranked top 10 most of year, won bowl game 36-13) 4-year average W/L: 0.68 2010, 5-7, 0.42 2011, 8-5, 0.62 2012, 9-4, 0.69 2013, 8-5, 0.62 (ranked top 25 for 4 weeks of year, lost bowl game 7-30) 4-year average W/L: 0.59 Those DKR years of only winning 6,7, and 6 games looks weak until you compare them to Mack's 5,8, and 9 win seasons and do the math: 0.61 for DKR's 6,7 and 6-win seasons versus 0.58 for Mack's 5,8, and 9 win seasons. But the clincher was the 4th year of these "slumps." At least three important differences, just objectively comparing the two 4-year periods (not contextualizing previous MNCs, etc.) are: 1. DKR did not have a losing season, Mack did 2. DKR's final year of his "slump" the program had emerged from the slump, returning to top-10 status for most of the year, finishing 9-1-1; Mack's program appeared to still be on a plateau, a marginal, periodic top-25 team 3. DKR's team stomped Tennessee in the Cotton Bowl, at the time one of the top 4 bowls; Brown's team got stomped by Oregon in the Alamo Bowl, both results suggesting pretext's to next year's expectations
You are correct about Akers. He only had 1 losing seasons. But did things get better with McWilliams and Mackovic? Actually, Mack never got a 4th season. Mack stuck with what he had in 2010. He decided to make the big changes after 2010. His real fourth season would have been 2014. 2011 was really the first season for changing the coaching staff. What would have happened in 2014 unknown. I believe he does better than Charlie Strong because Robinson would have been fine on defense and because Applewhite would have done more with Swoopes than Watson. Maybe he wins 8-9 games and gets fired. At the very least, there were better coaching options to hire in 2014. Maybe Florida gets Charlie Strong and we get the current Florida coach. Mack also beat a top 15 Oregon State team in 2012. It's also not really fair to hold that game against anyone on that staff seeing as how they had all been fired. If charlie were to be fired this week but allowed to stay through the end of the season, I would not hold him to any of the results after that. It's honestly probably not a good idea to have kept Watson around after the demotion. My main contention with your post however, is that Mack never got year 4 of his rebuilding process. We know that team had 6 NFL draft picks on it too. One other point, let's look at the conference records: 2010: 2-6 2011: 4-5 2012: 5-4 2013: 7-2 2014: 5-4 2015: 0-2 (so far) Progress was actually being shown in the Big 12. Putting all of this aside, Charlie Strong is about to have not one, but two losing seasons. 39% of the games have been embarrassing losses. Mack Brown winning 8-9 games was not acceptable to many whether you consider 2013 year 3 or year 4 in the rebuilding process. What I want to know is, why are these current seasons acceptable to some now? I mean how many games does charlie strong have to win in 2016 to keep his job? Mack had a previous resume that included a national title and 9 or 8 wins were not acceptable in year 3 or 4. What will be acceptable next year? Also no, the program was not left in shambles. Not by any stretch of the imagination. If recruiting does not pick up, it will be left in shambles for the next guy. Everyone talks about the 2015 recruiting class, but how good is it now? 4 star Boyd wants to transfer (and honestly if I was the coach, I would have to kick any player that ever did that off the team). 4 star Cecil Cherry left. 4 star Devonaire Clarington never made it here. Lumpkin never made it here. If we do not get a good class in 2016, what will the next coach inherit? I doubt it will be in better shape than what is here now or what Mack left. Anyway, if you still think firing Mack Brown after 3 seasons of 8 wins or more was the right call with no Jimmy Johnson waiting in the wings, I guess I can never convince you. I hope you are enjoying the results. I also hope you are paying money and going to these games, and going to OU next week like I am. I really hope the people that think Charlie is turning it around and still think getting rid of Mack made things better are putting their money where their mouths are. Mack Brown winning 8-9 games last year and this year and leaving the program in decent shape for the next guy would have been a hell of a lot better than what I have been paying to see in 2014 and 2015. Last year a record was set for single season home losses by 20 points or more. Mack Brown has the record for most 20 point losses at home (4) over 16 years. Charlie currently has 3 in less than 2 years. I saw the first ever loss to California in school history this year. Mack Brown left us with a 52-10 scoreboard on Arkansas. Last year we got whipped by a 6-6 Arkansas squad. Charlie has as many shutout losses as Mack already. If we are not getting blown out, we are losing with stupid mistakes to UCLA, OU, Cal or Oklahoma State (and why anyone is convinced we would have not made stupid mistakes and lost to Okie State or Cal in overtime, I do not know). The people that wanted Mack fired without a proven coach available have given us this **** and they keep saying that firing Mack was the right move. Like I said, I do not think they are even paying to go to these games.
I'm not really trying to debate whether Brown did or didn't get a reasonable chance to right the ship; just that others preceding him (e.g., DKR and Akers) also had the Earth crumbling beneath their feet and were either threatened with firing (DKR c. 1976) or were fired quickly (Akers).
Blon, Akers never lost a regular season OOC game (except OU)until his last year, and there were plenty of ranked teams in there, including Auburn & State Penn on the road. His record against Barry was 5-4-1. His record against ranked teams (at the time of the game) was something like 23-5 (Can't remember the number I used in recruiting letters, but it was twenty something to a few and over 80%). DKR's people were after his scalp form day one and today's chippiness is child's play compared to the crap we endured then.
I agree except the part about gray he didn't pan out as expected still very talented though I'm thinking he bulked up too much and lost the elusiveness he had in high school
After every game it's a new excuse; young team, Mack's fault, Charlie's fault, ref's fault, team we lost to is greatest in the world's fault, o-line's fault, defense's fault, special team's fault, Watson's fault, Patterson's fault, Bedford's fault, Diaz' fault, Major's fault, cupboard bare's fault, need three year's fault, and on and on. I think we've all been left clueless. This has been going on for what, 5/6 years? I just wish someone, anyone, would fix this mess. Never would have imagined that after half a decade we would be no better off. I feel everyone's pain and frustration. But here's to a miraculous bounce back
That's where I am at this point. I would just love a miracle win over OU this week like in 2013 or under McWilliams. I do not like the fact I expect right now that we will be getting beat so bad, I'll end up at Hans Mueller's with a cold one in the second quarter because the game will already be over.
Well, somebody needs to get fired last Monday: the coordinator of the team's formerly known as Special. Instead, we got another Saturday Football Follies. Who's the Special Teams coord today? Same guy. Charlie needs to man up, fire somebody & get the attention of players AND coaches. And look at me when you're talking to me through a TV camera, Coach.
Though Akers' first year, 1977, ended badly (a 38-10 thrashing by the Domers in the Cotton Bowl), Fred had earned his mulligan: Took a 5-5-1 previous year team to 11-0, a No.1 ranking most of the year, and a final 11-1 record. Voted national coach of the year. With his changes in Earl's physical training (i.e., weight loss, anti-embollism stockings to reduce hamstring pulls), dumping the triple-option wishbone with Earl as a fullback and installing the veer and I with Earl as the featured tailback, was instrumental in Texas getting it's first Heisman; had DKR continued with the wishbone and Earl at fullback, never would have happened. Coached Brad Shearer to the Outland Trophy. Ended OU's Switzer dominance of UT. With that, Fred had a bit of a flakjacket to protect him from the DKR loyalists. Ultimately, IMHO, had any of 4 things not occurred he would have made it past his unfortunate firing: 1. That 10-9 loss in the CB to Georgia; unknown at the time that Nebraska (No. 1) would lose later that night, if, if, ....Akers' 2nd bite at an MNC in the bowl game. 2. Marcus Dupree. Watch ESPN's 30 for 30, Fred: "Yeah, there's always an uncle there somewhere." Dupree had already committed to Texas, late switch to OU, very bad relations with Switzer, bounced all around the country, USFL, sad story. Had he honored his commitment to UT, Texas' 2nd Heisman and an MNC for Fred? 3. Again, another 30 for 30, watch (and gag) "Pony Excess." When SMU and others literally have scholarship players on cash payrolls, it makes it hard to keep up in recruiting. Oh, and Craig James, you can forget ever being governor of Texas for what your SMU program did to the SWC while you and Dickerson did what you did and just laugh about it as ordinary business. 4. See No.3 and add the final turning off of the Texas high school recruiting success Fred had enjoyed earlier, probably inflamed by the DKR loyalists who finally smelled blood in the water, and the talent pool dried up leading to a losing season. I, for the record was sad to see Akers fired for the one losing season, but he had a good run, it's a business and he's an adult.
Same old Strong vs. Mack arguments here to excuse the fact that Charlie Strong has been our head coach for 18 games now and is still embarrassing the program as much as the start of his tenure. This is about Strong and what he is doing 18 games into his stint. And what I saw Saturday was a pathetic excuse for a football team. TCU owned our *ss in every phase of the game. Like a JV team being rag-dolled by the 6A State Champs. This is NOT Texas football. I don't care how many Freshmen are playing. Nor do I care for any other excuse to cover Strong's back after 18 games. He's still getting blasted by good programs at an absurd rate. A program that barely beat Tech and gave up 30+ to SMU. And we barely score 7??? Last year Charlie Strong said 6-7 was not good enough. He also swore it would NEVER happen again. Unless he goes 6-2 the rest of the way, it WILL happen again...most likely even worse. So where is the accountability for that? He set his own standard vowing to never have a losing season here again. When he does, why is that acceptable? Oh yeah, it's Mack's fault, the team is young, blah blah blah.
Strong should never have been hired. I think he should be fired at the end of the year but he will not be. McCombs was right that he might have made a good co-ordinator. That was probably sour milk because we screwed up the Saban hire though.
This season is good only for seeing if theres any development over the course of it. Texas plays a brutal schedule this year. Charlie should get 3 years. Recruiting might get tough, but if he cant take this team to a legit winning record in 3 years, then I will be the first in line to call for change.
