Net Migration from Mexico goes Negative

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2015/11/19/more-mexicans-leaving-than-coming-to-the-u-s/

Hardly a surprise, save the constant Republican drumbeat about Obama's failure to protect the border.

 

Here is a more recent troubling report on illegals coming in.
"The White House expressed surprise in September when the numbers of unaccompanied minors and incomplete families again began to surge in numbers, Breitbart Texas reported. The White House tried to downplay the numbers as “lover than last year.” “We have seen, just in the last month, in the month of August, a surprising uptick,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest in a press conference at the time. “That is something that is concerning.”

That the White House would be “surprised” by this uptick in the numbers of children crossing the southern border is quite surprising in its own right. In April, Senator
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)warned the White House about the coming surge of children and broken families, as Breitbart’s Caroline May reported. She reported that in the first part of this fiscal year the number of unaccompanied alien children (UACs) was already more than 12,500. While that number was lower than the 2014 numbers at that time, it is still a substantial increase over normal years.


In November, May reported that over 81,000 UACs had been placed in homes across the U.S. 53,518 of those were placed during the current fiscal year. The number of UACs that were captured crossing the border for FY2015 was 39,970, mostly from Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala.

The numbers during the early fall period of the last few months are now at the highest levels for the past six years, according to Border Patrol numbers reported by the Houston Chronicle. In the past two months alone, 7,390 UACs were captured in Texas while crossing the border from Mexico. This reflects an 85 percent increase over the same period last year.

“We’re clearly seeing a significant uptick,” Marc Rosenblum, deputy director at the Migration Policy Institute in Washington D.C. told the Chronicle. He confirmed that the slump of arrivals earlier this year may have been an anomaly, and that the recent numbers are in line with what trend lines predicted years ago.

The numbers now indicate that child arrivals for the past two months “far exceed those that arrived in the same period following the summer influx that peaked in June last year,” the Chronicle reported."




more at
breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/19/children-crossing-texas-border-incidents-rise

 

No surprise that Breitbart and Ted Cruz have alarming news on immigration. That's part of the never ending drumbeat I'm talking about.

 

Croc
I guess YOU missed the quotes from Josh Ernest
and the reporting linked to the Houston Chronicle??
Are you saying the numbers reported are wrong?

 

I think he's saying that despite any data or facts that Sen. Cruz and Breitbart would be playing the alarmist card. They are playing to their base.

 

?
If Croc is saying that then he is ignoring facts and data to make a political slam.

 

I'm not going to put words in his mouth but I'd say that Cruz and Brietbart will only use facts that support their agenda. Did you see any comments and articles from them that the inflow of illegal immigrants was slowing? That's what the facts show.

 

Actually the "facts" show an increase in UAC, INCREASE.That is what the facts show.
Show me where in the article Croc linked that the data on the increase in UAC is reported?
Would you say that is only showing facts to support the BO agenda?

 

No: I think the PEW report is quite comprehensive and researched in a scholarly manner. The big picture is positive. Within the big picture, it's complicated. Since the Republican base is concerned about it, Trump, Cruz,Perry, Abbott, Dan Patrick, etc. make alarm about border crossings a rally big deal. It's like the shooting in Chicago. Really a big problem. Overall murder rate in the US, really bad, but the long term country-wide trend has been steady improvement for going on 20 years. But that's not the message you get from people who want you to buy or restrict buying of firearms.

 

Keep in mind the " big picture" includes data from a Mexican Survey company. So are they credible but Breitbart and the Chronical are not?
And keep in mind the facts in the entire big picture show more UAC which means more taxpayer dollars needed and likely means parents of these UAC allowed in.
Who do you think will take care of these UAC?
It is a really big deal. To pretend otherwise is to stick one's head in the sand.

 

The data don't conflict. It's like a school where overall SAT scores are up 10 percent, but scores for White Students whose parents didn't attend college are down 2 percent. You could focus on the downward trend in one segment and be alarmed and excoriate the school staff. Or you could focus on the mostly positive aspects.

 

Croc,
Can you provide a source showing either Cruz or Breitbart saying the influx of illegals is only Mexican?
Did Pew explain the methodology? It is amazing that we do not know who is here illegally or how many are here but now Shazam we are told 1 million left and only 870,000 snuck in. You don't think that is suspect?
OK
Most would look at the big picture,that the number of illegals is way up,including the number of UAC
And see that as a bigger problem than trying to pretend it is a big story that perhaps 130,000 fewer Mexicans snuck in.

 

6721: The link I provided gives comprehensive access to the PEW report and its sources. It would be a waste of time to link all the findings, since they are well organized and accessible. The work was done by exceptional researchers seeking objective truth who had hundreds of hours to devote to project.

If you are not that intellectually curious, I understand. Most people like their news predigested to support a particular political viewpoint. I'm a little too busy to do that for you.

I will not extensively read and link Breitbart or Cruz communication on illegal immigration. My impression is that those source certainly use facts, but mostly only those that alarm the base and criticize the Obama Administration.

 

?
So you think I am not intellectually curious because I question the methodology but you did not read any actual quotes from Breitbart or Cruz ,merely based your assertion on an "impression".
That right there is funny.
You keep right on being impressed with the thought that there is anything important about the estimates there might have been 130,000 or so fewer Mexicans sneaking into our country.

 

If you think Breitbart is as objective and thorough as Pew, then by all means read and venerate it. Pew's report explains its methodology in a comprehensive fashion, so I don't feel I'm dodging the question, just encouraging you to get answers from a better source than me.

 

Croc
So when Breitbart links to Border Control stats you see it as a "drumbeat"? But Pew estimates you see as comprehensive facts? You give more credence to estimates than to actual numbers?

Here is a link to an article from Washington Times on Sunday that pretty clearly shows what is actually going on. That is if you are intellectually curious enough to learn.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news...rant-children-non-mexicans-surge-acro/?page=1


Harping on a small drop in Mexicanillegals might score political points but the real facts show a disturbing picture.

 

Well, if Breitbart or Washington Times took the time to actually count folks crossing the border illegally and is not making an estimate based on a sample, I'm am humbled and amazed at their dedication to objective news coverage. Honestly, I thought even the Census Bureau and the US government were making statistical estimates instead of actual counts.

 

It was the Border Control who provided the numbers.

 

Crockett,
For the sake of argument, say I am inclined to accept the numbers reported for Mexican nationals. But even so, there is no cause for the Obama admin to do a victory lap here, because nobody has claimed total illegal immigration has gone negative. What the headlines fail to acknowledge (and in fact, seem to actively try to hide) is that we are still being flooded by illegals from other Central American countries.

Now, let's actually look at those numbers Pew put out. Check Joe Fan's link and you'll see they are old data being reported as if they are current. It is a completely dishonest snow job, if not by Pew then by the mainstream media.

 

Make whatever you want out of Breibart but the original article was taking information from the Mexican Census group sponsored by the Mexican government, how credible is that source?

If you have been to Houston, SA, Austin, Dallas or anywhere in Texas since 1999 you have to be an idiot to believe that there are not more Mexicans Central Americans entering this country than leaving it......use some common sense.......

The Mexican government will do whatever it can to move poorer residents out of their country.......tell me that census is not ********......

 

You don't understand what the term "common sense" means. You do get irony though.
This is CLASSIC republican logic. Don't pay attention to the actual data, just go with what your gut tells you.

 

change
Which "actual data" do you choose to believe? Estimates which even Pew admits : "Measuring migration flows between Mexico and the U.S. is challenging because there are no official counts of how many Mexican immigrants enter and leave the U.S. each year"
( Those Estimates BTW are from 2009-2014/ The " estimates" for 2015 so far show a massive spike in illegals including Mexico.)

So which seems more pertinent? Estimates that are out of date or estimates for 2015 or actual numbers provided by the Border Control. Numbers that ONLY reflect illegals caught.

Interesting that after Croc posted this. "Well, if Breitbart or Washington Times took the time to actually count folks crossing the border illegally and is not making an estimate based on a sample, I'm am humbled and amazed at their dedication to objective news coverage. "
and it was pointed out the numbers were actual illegals caught, numbers provided by the Border Patrol he hasn't been back. I am sure he is " busy" and hasn't time to post.

 

I'll admit the number of illegals caught is one of the best measures we have for migration patterns though other factors (effectiveness of Border Patrol, adaptations by the migrants) can impact the numbers.
I'm not a professional statistician, I loved the subject in college and would point out that any measure you make of an underground activity is necessarily an estimate. Also, comprehensive data collection and analysis takes some time. Seat of the pants estimates like Whiteapples's are difficult to quantify, prove or disprove.

Pew stated clearly what time its analysis covered, so I detect no prevarication though I have heard the accusation. I find no fault in the analysis Sangre provided above.
Pew provides insights into other, non-Mexican migration patterns, so I would commend its website for study.

 

Croc
You are a stand up poster.
I did not think Pew was prevaricating. There are up to date gov't estimates which make the header they used outdated But the media and lefties ran with it as if it was actually meaningful.
I do visit Pew often.
I hope you would take the time to read a little Breitbart. If they ever have posted erroneous facts MSM would be all over it. Just to make an assumption of their reporting based on their conservative leanings is unfair don't you think?
We don't agree on much in WM ( Now the Horns.there we agree )but you usually seem open minded.