2017 Recruiting?

Can we finally start talking about the 2017 class?

OK, OK.... we can wait until the day after the Super Bowl. See ya then.

Helluva 2016 class. Charlie has a plan and I hope the team performs well enough this year to keep CS on. Offense should improve, defense should improve, some studs have made themselves known and another wave just signed on the dotted line. Feeling dang good this evening.

 

QB and DE have commited room for 13 more.

 

Need a couple of cover corners since the dbs in this 2016 class are more safety types and rbs since we took only one in 2016.

 

Looking at the depth of the group right now, true CBs, a TE or 2, and a RB.

 

always need lineman. always

 

How about this big fella? Predicted for the Horns.

 

It's one thing to be predicted for the Horns but that's before Nick Satan comes calling or an Ole Miss bag man.

 

If we can win next season say 9 or 10....Even Saban won't be able to pull kids away from Charlie and Texas.

 

Time to revive our getting at least 5 of the top 10 (consensus) guys in the state.

 

We shouldn't keep high hopes for that, though. Charlie will pick who he wants, and the ones who like Charlie's ways of doing it will be the ones who will come to us. He recruits differently than everybody else. We will offer only after the coaches see the junior film, do spring evaluations, and in some cases wait for senior year film if it's needed. They will wait till they are convinced, regardless of what the recruiting rankings say in any given year (as that is bound to change till January 2017). So, you will see some 3-star guys being offered and some taking it up too.

But Charlie will only do it at his own pace, and won't be held hostage to the schedule that other coaches keep, when they all continue to try to be Mack Brown who pioneered the junior year recruiting style and won an NC with (and went 66-6 or whatever!). That doesn't work much anymore, and CS will turn the table on people. Once again, Texas will lead the way on how recruiting should be done.

At least from this year onward, most players won't get cheesed off about delayed offers and lack of contact at times etc, because they know that is how he does it. Many of these top-200 players who became die-hard unshakeble commits this January had had their issues at times with how Charlie was doing this, but in the end, by January, they all figured out that there was a plan behind it and that it is not any game being played. They know that it is nothing personal and that once Charlie and staff are convinced they will show love and you can't say no to them ... They are convinced about you, and you better be convinced about them. Well, if you aren't convinced and go away, then you just may not be the kind of guy who will fit Charlie's family of players who are a team together and on a singular mission.

So, you can bet that Charlie will not have some of the top-10 guys in Texas. he will find others who are generally as good. I will be surprised if CS ends up with top-3 type classes. We could win 12 or 13 this year, and still may only land a top-8 class. But that class will have as good or better talent and more importantly better fit than a top-3 class he could have had, if he did it like other coaches do. Charlie won't change easily. I am convinced now, especially after this latest recruiting cycle.

It was refreshing to hear Charlie talk yesterday about how he picked Andrew Fitzgerald. "I turned the film on, and immediately said we need this guy". That was when he was in nobody's radar. He had an earlier offer and committed earlier, than many other higher rated players we offered later. But he finished his senior year and his ranking shot up. And after the all-star game, he made the largest ranking jump of anybody this January itself, up from national-300 to national top-100. Some now think he should be top-25 but it is too late to re-rank him. But the head coach sitting down and watching film to pick somebody, rather than follow the myriad recruiting evaluations, is kinda refreshing to hear of, these days... It's old school recruiting.

As for 2017, you can see that we offered Lagarryon from Texarkana earlier than many others rated higher in the Texas top-20 at the beginning of their junior year. But he has gone up now at the end of the junior year and many think he will end up as even a national top-20 player (Texas top-3) after his senior year. Good to have him already committed. CS is not as convinced of many others in the Texas top-30 and will wait to see more on them. He will wait even till the end of the year to be convinced. He knows he can convince them as long as he is convinced of them, even with only 2 weeks or even 2 days! The guy is supremely confident of that.

Ehlinger is a 3-star QB now (barely top-50 in texas), but watch his junior tape, and you will see that he may even be better than Shawn Robinson. We offered Robinson also, but we were convinced of Ehlinger earlier, and had him all wrapped up. Robinson actually had an inexplicably poor junior year, meanwhile, though his ranking hasn't dropped that terribly (but he fell from 5-star status). Stuff like that is the norm for Charlie.

Re-rank Charlie classes' even a year after they are in college, and you will see that they were under-ranked. Heck, his 2011 class at UL was barely top-25, but got re-ranked on productivity as a top-5 four years later with so many NFL picks. That has been the case for 5 of the last 6 classes he has recruited as a head coach (except the 2014 class at Texas for which he only got 2 weeks of recruiting time). That will be the case with the 7th class (2016) that he just brought in. That will be the case for the 2017 class too. We have a good start and we may finish top-5, but if we do, it will be better than the top class because the lower-rated players he picked that brings down the class ranking may be much better. Also because the chance for a top ranked guy being unproductive (because he didn't buy into working hard with CS and his team on what he is trying to do) is much less. Count on it. When he has done it every damn time in recruiting at UL and UT, it is no fluke, and it will continue to be the case

 

Here's what I'm thinking. IF Gilbert shows a big improvement with an exciting, competent offense then we will see some stud playmakers commit on 2/3/17.

 

I believe Sam is going to be a good recruiter for us...btw I watched sam's championship game..took a lot of hits. Hope its not like that all season for him. Note to his coach please let him handoff or throw more. I think he didnt throw an interception the whole regular season-quite remarkable unless he was too busy running the ball. Again, note to coach please let him handoff more or throw more.

 

That is the stat that I always look for, in QBs. Interceptions. Really, the only stat. Speed and running yards are always useful for versatile offenses but if the QB doesn't throw INTs, and passes for decent yardage, he will be at least able to manage the game in college. With Sam, his running ability makes him a decent threat to run also, like Colt. I don't give a damn about arm strength which continues to be a big factor in QB ratings, which can never stop baffling me. How often do you have to throw more than 35 yards anyway? That's all I need. Most top-1000 QB can throw that far. But throw accurately.

He is like 62 TDs and 6 INTs in his career. A 10-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. That is unbelievable numbers. I remember when Mackovic picked Applewhite, and everybody said he was not going to amount to much because he was a small guy without arm strength etc. If I remember correctly, his was something like 45 and 4 in high school (unless I am mistaking the stat with Colt's). Give me a QB who has won enough games, has averaged at least around 175-200 yards per game, and has at least a 6 to 1 ratio in TD to INTs. I won't complain. But the first stat to look for, is always INTs.

As his junior film shows, Sam threw a good number of TDs and so many passes while he was being hurried or was on the move, escaping from dead-duck situations, and he threw some into double and triple coverage. When we see that many scary throws even in the highlights and he still had only 6 INTs in 21 games, he has to be deadly in accuracy, vision and general QB smarts. He just seemed to have a knack for getting the ball to a spot where only his receiver could catch it, and the quickness in decision-making that goes with it. Some of them were such quick releases that you wondered when he even saw the WR and the coverage well enough to get the ball to the perfect spots. But he still has a 10-to-1 TD to INT ratio. Unreal. That's the QB we need.

 

My wish is still that Strong get at least 5 of the top 10 from Texas. He should, of course. make his own evaluation, but history shows that the schools that win National titles have 4 or 5 year avg recruiting classes rated as top 10. Butch Davis was on an ESPN show on Thursday where they showed the numbers. They were even very complimentary of TCU and Bayor who do not have top 10 running averages. But as they noted, those school, although close, have not won the last game!

There will always be 2 or 3 sad cases of recruits with Aggie ties and a couple with grade issues, but many are obvious and may require Charlie to act quicker. Everyone knew that Vince Young would be good.

Don't wait. Secure the top 5 to 8. Then slow play the rest.

This approach does require that we win games next year.

 

He won't offer till he evaluates the film and is convinced. Right now we have offered all of the state top 10 players, but he has not worked hard on some guys in the top-25 that the staff probably felt they should wait on. We have also worked on some guys who were not in top-10 who are bound to be in the top-10 in the end. Most probably, based on Charlie's past record, some of the guys on whom they are not that high, may drop by the end of their senior year, or Charlie may go hard after them by the middle of the senior year once he is convinced. If they are the types that fits Charlie's plans and trusts him, they will be there with him in the end, because they know that Charlie offered them on merit and nothing else and is convinced of them. Sure, he would miss out on a couple in the end, but won't have wasted schollies on unproductive players.

It's a different game that Charlie plays, that most other coaches simply cannot play. They are either not at a place like Texas that sells itself, or they are not Charlie when it comes to how fair and square they are able to be, in this game.

 

This statement rang a memory bell for me. I saw Robinson play as a starting sophomore at Guyer against Kyler Murray (Allen). Then I saw Ehlinger last season at the Westlake vs Austin Bowie game. I had no skin in either game, but I wanted to see how the starting junior RB looked for Bowie because I had coached him a few years ago. Admittedly, you cannot judge such young players by seeing them in only a single game. But certain things impressed me.

Robinsion is a very quick runner (much like J.Heard) and fast to the edges. However, some of his passes were off target. Ehlinger is a different style of runner and better at slithering through the holes in the line with the QB draw play, but he is not as flashy as Robinson and does not run as fast to the outside. However, Ehlinger's passes had a better touch on the ball and tended to be more consistently accurate. From that standpoint, he reminded me more of Colt McCoy.

I was sitting in the Bowie section next to a knowledgeable Bowie fan. The first half was a tight, defensive game. The fan proclaimed that Ehlinger was vastly over-rated. I chuckled at the end of the game because Ehlinger passed for at least two TDs in the second half to pull away and handily defeat Bowie. That fan definitely miss-judged Ehlinger too early and to his disadvantage because he was instrumental in defeating Bowie with both his timely running gains and his passing.

 

Bevo- what level did you coach at?

 

2/1/17...1st Wednesday in Feb!

 

TRUTH!

This needs to be reposted everytime someone on HF begins woe-ing about an upcoming recruiting class. Better yet, @Dionysus should make this post required reading for anyone entering the Recruiting Forum.

Nicely done, jayakris.

 

Grades 3 through 8 as a volunteer coach in a youth league. Never in public school systems.

After 6th grade, Threadgill focused only on school athletics. However, I watched him play closely for two seasons. He is fun to watch because he is so aggressive and coordinated. He is like a bowling ball, hard to tackle, and always makes at least a few yards after first being hit. Bowie's problem in that game was that Westlake's defense was too stout. They substituted another RB and QB together in order to try to open up their defense about midway through the game.

 

Is it strange that there's a weird (to me) disparity of early commitments in the Top Texas Recruits for 2017? 2 out of every 3 offensive guys is already committed. Whereas only 1 out of 4 of the Top Texas guys are committed.

If our offense shows the real stuff next Fall, it still might be too late to take in top offensive talent from within the state.
After Ehlinger, would we take another QB like Avery Davis?
Do we have a shot at Brock Wright at TE?
Tylan Wallace (doesn't list us) or Damion Miller at WR?
The only Top Texas talent left on offense at this point are the RBs and the tackle Austin Deculus.

Why are the offensive guys so much more likely to commit earlier?

 

Another QB No unless there is a lot of attrition
TE yes Strong has a shot at most everybody
Miller is already commited. IMO enough WRS minus attrition

 

Strong has certainly shown his abilities at evaluating talent (see Connor Williams) and closing recruits late (see NSD the last two years).

Remember though he has not yet had the opportunity to get in on kids early. His first recruiting cycle he had only a few weeks to patch something together. In 2016 he had barely over a year. By the time Charlie came calling most recruits had a relationship with other coaches. Now Charlie has a little more runway to do early evaluation and get out early offers (or at least get in a kids ear).

Since Charlie's style is based on building relationship, especially with family members, I expect his recruiting will only get better. He just put together back to back top 15 classes without much time to build relationships, with a changing staff, and losing seasons. With an 8-9 win season (I hope), Sterlin Gilbert leading the offense, and more time on his hand--the sky is the limit.

 

Here is a nice 2017 recruiting class overview from InsideTexas.

http://insidetexas.com/2017-class-overview-texas/

 

Not trying to be a trouble maker but it is interesting that everyone seems to think Charlie is deliberate and prefers to wait, but according to that link, he's not waiting at all when it comes to the big names... there are outstanding offers at every position group (along with the current commit list).

 

I agree. I think Charlie put out a bunch of elite offers early last year too, but missed on a number of them, for example, OG Chris Owens and DT Kendell Jones were a couple of recruits who seemed to be big UT leans until both committed to Bama when offered there. Plus Ed Oliver, Greg Little and Patrick Hudson committed early elsewhere.

Charlie then waited to offer late bloomers and put a big push on everybody else with an offer who was still in play late. He has been significantly helped by A&M screwing up after football season ended in each of the last two years. That has helped UT build momentum for a big finish late in the recruiting season. I'm not sure that can always be counted on so hopefully he can get more early commits this year.

 

The signing day barrage was orchestrated by Charlie to help get "TEXAS" thrown around nationally, along with getting fans to forget 5-7.

 

Good orchestration. Forgetting 5-7 was not achieved but he sure as hell got TEXAS talked about in a positive way.