Turkey: Pivot away from the West/NATO/and the US?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Musburger1, Jul 17, 2016.

  1. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Just a few weeks ago, Erdogan apologized to Russia for shooting down the fighter jet, and Russia announced it would begin to lift sanctions on Turkey. A short time later, a coup is attempted. And post coup attempt we have some new developments:
    http://www.politico.eu/article/turk...n-to-meet-vladimir-putin-turkey-coup-attempt/
    Prior to the downing of a Russian fighter jet by Turkey, a major deal was in the works to construct a gas pipeline from Russia into Turkey which could be transported into Southern Europe from there. This would benefit both Russia and Turkey. The deal was nixed after the incident.

    Now statements are coming out of Turkey revealing a turn away from the US.
    http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160717/1043173747/turkey-washington-obama-kerry-erdogan.html

    Some analysis, both pre-coup and post-coup that provide rationale for a Turkish pivot can be found here:
    Pre-Coup
    http://katehon.com/news/alexander-dugin-gave-press-conference-ankara
    Friday, 15 July, 2016 - 14:45
    In his speech Alexander Dugin, the leading expert of analytical center "Katehon" spoke about the efforts made for the restoration of Russian-Turkish relations after the provocation organized by US intelligence agencies, as a result of which a Russian aircraft was shot down, and the pilot was killed.

    The press conference was held yesterday, July 14 and broadcast live on one of the central Turkish TV channels.

    At the moment, the Turkish leaders have changed their strategy towards the Middle East and Russia. Future rapprochement between Ankara and Moscow on the Syrian issue and other issues directly destroys Washington's plans for the reconfiguration of the region and its transformation into a zone of chaos and instability, like Libya and Iraq.

    Alexander Dugin stated: "Turkey and Russia have the same enemy - first of all it is US hegemony and radical islamic terrorism as its intsrument"
    Post-Coup
    http://katehon.com/article/post-coup-turkey-will-be-distinctly-eurasian
    16.07.2016
    Turkey
    Andrew Korybko
    The aftermath of the failed US-directed and Gulen-inspired coup attempt is already making itself clear, with Prime Minister Yildirim stating that Turkey might reinstate the death penalty to deal with the plotters. This statement is just as symbolic as it is substantial, since not only does it disprove allegations that Erdogan "planned this" himself for some Machiavellian purpose, but it also indicates that Turkey has decided to shun the West. The EU is strictly against the death penalty and would immediately halt the decades-long drawn-out accession negotiations with Turkey as a result.

    Erdogan correctly calculated that the EU wants nothing to do with his country and that Turkey is unable to milk extra benefits from the bloc after the Brexit referendum, so he recalibrated his state's foreign policy to align with the multipolar world instead. This saw the recent news of Turkey belatedly declaring Al Nusra a terrorist organization and opening up secret reconciliation talks with Syria, despite still repeating the "face saving" refrain of "Assad must go". Furthermore, Turkey is part of Russia's nascent coalition of regional powers opposed to the US' daring attempt to militantly carve out the "second geopolitical Israel" of "Kurdistan". Not only that, but Turkey are Russia are also back on track for reimplementing the Balkan Stream megaproject, which when paired with China's complementary Balkan Silk Road high-speed rail project from Budapest to Piraeus, is perhaps the most ambitious multipolar outreach to Europe that has ever been attempted.

    The US stands to lose many of its strategic gains in the past decade if any of these multipolar counteroffensives succeed, let alone all of them, which is why it desperately masterminded this last-ditch attempt to safeguard its unipolar hegemony. Try as it might, though, it was patently obvious what the US was doing, and even Syria's close Iranian ally - which many might otherwise think would have a relative interest in Erdogan's downfall - voiced its support for Turkey's "brave defense of democracy" via a tweet by Foreign Minister Zarif. Despite this statement being somewhat of an oxymoron, it proves that the Syrian government's most active on-the-ground ally understands the greater interests at play here and is thus standing behind Erdogan (however shocking this might seem to many) because of the bigger picture that was just elaborated on above.

    As a closing forecast, it's very likely that Turkey will accelerate its multipolar pivot and finally embrace its Eurasian destiny, though not without forthcoming American-improvised Hybrid War challenges - a renewed Kurdish insurgency, left-wing terrorism, a Color Revolution, Daesh attacks, maritime proxy hostility via Greece, engineered provocations with Turkey's other neighbors, a civil war, and/or another feeble coup attempt -- in order to throw the progressively Islamifying and Muslim Brotherhood-inspired state into such chaos that it becomes impossible for its new multipolar partners to make any substantial use of its territory in their joint quest to dismantle the unipolar world order.​

    This is just one analysts opinions, and it comes from a Russian perspective, but it is very reasonable.

    Erdogan has been all over the map when you look at his long-term pattern of behavior. He has allied with the US where it has been advantageous for Turkey. He has purchased stolen oil from ISIS which helped finance them and enriched his family. He has opened Turkey's borders to jihadis to fight against Assad. He has blackmailed the EU with threats of flooding Europe with immigrants if his monetary demands weren't met and attempted to have Turkey admitted to the EU. Lately, he has agreed to open talks with Assad which indicates a major shift.

    This "pivot" is a potentially major development, if that is indeed what it is.
     
  2. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Regardless of its perspective, if we were behind coup, it stands reason that Turkey is going to turn to Moscow and Tehran. How could anyone blame them?

    Erdogan has his problems, and I understand why EU is reluctant to let Turkey join. However, it seems that the unwillingness to fully integrate Turkey into Europe is aggravating the problem, the core of which seems be a terrible Syria policy by NATO and the US. Basically, we don't like ISIS for obvious reasons, but we don't want to completely destroy them because they also fight Assad and don't have the resolve to send in our own troops to stop ISIS without empowering Assad. What kind of incoherent, babbling mess of a ******** policy is that?

    I hope we're getting something big for making the ouster of Assad our top priority, because it sure as hell is costing us a lot. And if you're Turkey, why would you want to align with the West when its policy toward your neighbor is so incoherent and therefore dangerous to you? At least Putin's policy is clear, so a guy like Erdogan can know what he should be doing and what to expect.
     
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  3. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Here are three more analytical takes of the coup and the likely aftermath as it pertains to Turkey. All three pieces are written by people critical of US foreign policy, but even if you are someone who is pro US foreign policy (especially if you are pro US foreign policy) it's good to know other perspectives and critically examine what's going on.

    http://thesaker.is/hell-hath-no-fury-like-a-teflon-sultan-pepe-escpbar-on-turkey-coup/
    http://thesaker.is/failed-coup-in-turkey-a-few-initial-thoughts/
    http://thesaker.is/the-new-middle-east-exit-america-enter-russia/
     
  4. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...lenist-media-shut-down-pilots-behind-russian-

    Massive purges taking place. Erdogan has arrested the pilots responsible for shooting down Russia's jet months ago and has apologized to Putin. Russia and Turkey are working toward normalizing relations and the pipeline agreement between them will be on again. Turkey is believed to have opened back channel talks with Assad. All of these are enormous developments.

    When you purge thousands of police and military, close news agencies and schools, you are talking about tens of thousands. In order to insure order and loyalty, you then must follow up by investigating their family and network of associates. Turkey will be a police state.
     
  5. Htown77

    Htown77 5,000+ Posts

    Is it crazy to think Erdogan staged the coup to use as an excuse to consolidate power? Has anyone considered it is about Erdogan's personal power, not Russia or the west? Or am I too far in left field with insufficient knowledge on Turkish politics on this one?
     
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    Last edited: Jul 21, 2016
  6. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    It is about power. Erdogan would like to be the autocratic leader of a powerful Muslim state. The Kurds are a threat to him. The US is supporting the Kurds. Also the EU will not succumb to his demands to allow Turkey as a member. Russia supplies 1/2 of Turkey's gas and also contributes to Turkey's tourism industry. If Putin offers military protection (from the US and NATO) in exchange for Turkish cooperation with Syria and renewal of a pipeline construction agreement, Erdogan would likely consider changing allegiance.

    No matter what, Turkey is going to see terrorism and turmoil within its borders for the foreseeable future.
     
  7. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

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    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

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    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

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    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

  11. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

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    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

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    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

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    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  15. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    And this guy, Erdogan, has been our "partner" in the war on terror for the past five years. What a joke. Our other "partner" the King of Arabia, is probably the worst human rights violator on the planet; not to mention their role in 9-11 which kicked the whole thing off. Last year the US sold more arms to Saudi Arabia than to any other country, and more arms to Turkey than to any other NATO member.

    MAYBE, the US wasn't behind the coup attempt, and MAYBE it was staged by Erdogan. If both of those premises are true, what does that say about the people we are in bed with?
     

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