A fairly good proxy for success in college is whether a player can make the NFL.  Therefore, examinnig where NFL talent originates gives us a pretty good idea of where collegiate stars come from.  

INDEX OF TOPICS

(1) NATIONAL TRENDS AND STATS OF ALL PLAYERS
     (A)  Generally
     (B)   Cities and Metrolitan Areas

(2) PRODUCTION OF VARIOUS NFL POSITIONS
     (A) By State
          (1) Defensive Backs
          (2) Defensive Linemen
          (3) Linebackers
          (4) Offensive Linemen
          (5) Quarterbacks
          (6)  Wide Receivers
          (7)  Tight Ends
          (8)  Running Backs
          (9)  Kickers
          (10) Punters              
     (B) By Metropolitan Area

(1) NATIONAL TRENDS AND STATS OF ALL PLAYERS

First, you can find a list of all current (as of mid-Oct 2001) NFL players, and their high schools or origin, at the NFLHS webisite.

         (A)  Generally

One brief note is that, based on state population, California produces about what is expected of it (PC Proj), while Texas and Florida produce well above their expectations. Louisana well over doubles its expected production (note, this takes into account only total state population and does not project based upon African-American population, rural nature of state population or other factors):

States like New York, Illinois and Michigan, which have large basket-ball oriented urban centers, produced at far less than projected values.

We'll start with a general snapshot of the US re where NFL talent comes from:

There appears to be a band of talent that starts at about a long lne between Houston and Dallas and swoops eastward for and then northward -- with a high concentration of talent within about 250 miles of the Gulf of Mexico and within about 100 miles of the Atlantic Ocean (stopping at around Boston, or somewhere south thereof).  

With one more ulta-concentrated burst between Los Angeles and the Mexican border, along 100 miles of the Pactific coastline.  

There's also kind of a min-trapezoid between Chicago, Flint, MI, Pittburgh and Cincinnati, inside of which seems to be fairly talent rich.

Texas is the only state in the Big 12 region that produces significant numbers of NFL players.  In fact, in the general, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Lousiana area, you can basically draw a line straight from the Louisana border across to Dallas, below which most of the talent originates:

          (B) Cities and Metrolopolitain Areas

First, the straight City breakdown of players yields some surprises:

That San Diego is almost at number one is incredible, given its relatively small population.   Also, Jacksonville's lead on Los Angeles is further suprirsing.  

However, lots of those surprises whither away when one looks at the breakdown by metropolitan statistical area.

The Los Angeles MSA is a huge producer.  In fact, 110 of California's 198 NFL players are from the small 100 mile Pacific Coast strip between Los Angeles and San Diego.  

If one were to put Dallas (32 players) and Ft Worth-Arlington (15 players) together, they would barely edge out Houston for the #2 spot.  However, including nearby (at least to Houston's sprawling Eastern edge) Beaumont-Port Arthur (8) with Houston would vault it back to #2 again, with 53 total players.  

Aggregating Miami (30) with West Palm Beach-Boca Rotan (13)  would vault it into the top 2-3.

While the New York MSA's 12 players is unbelievably low for that city's size, most observers would probably combine it with the Nassau-Suffolk MSA (12), the Newark MSA (11) and the Bergen-Passaic MSA (9) (these are all within 20-30 miles of each other) to get a much more respectable 44 players (top 2-3 in the country).

Because most of the Orange County players are close to Los Angeles (see map above), most observers would probably aggregate Los Angeles with Orange County, and add it to Riverside-San Bernaradino (16) -- and NOT counting San Diego --  to come up with a single Metropolitcan Area that produces a whopping 95 players --  more than all states except California, Texas and Florida.  

(2) PRODUCTION OF VARIOUS NFL POSITIONS

     (A) By State

        (1) Defensive Backs

Probably the top athletes on the field, DBs have to be able to run with the fastest WRs, jump with the tallest and bring down RBs and TEs lumbering at them.  Below are the defensive backs by state.  "PC Proj" is the projection of # of DBs for that state to produce based solely upon its total population.  "Pl Proj" is the projected amount for a state to produce at a position based upon the total number of players it has sent to the NFL.

Texas, Florida and Georgia produced at well above projected levels here, which is not surprising at this speed-oriented position given the athletic talent those states produce.

Nationally, the map shows that DB productionis even more concentrated in teh Southeast and Southern California than overall player production,especially in southeastern urban areas:

          (2)  Defensive Lineman

A postion which requires a player big enough to tangle with 350 pound OL's and quick enough to tackle QBs and RBs in the open field.   

California produces far less than projected DLs, while Texas produced a bit more than projected and Florida a bit less.  Along with DB, this position might require the most raw athletic ability (for a big athlete here, of course), so it is not surprising that Florida and Texas produce so many (e.g., Warren Sapp is a Florida product while Michael Strahan is a Texan).  South Carolina and Michigan jumped above expected levels.

          (3) Linebackers

A kind of catchall position, linebackers are expected to do everything from read the right gap for runs, blitz and even cover TEs.  

California produces a huge number of linebackers, well above expected levels, while Florida produced as expected and Texas underproduced.  One wonders if its because of the West Coast's reliance more on the passing game, forcing their linebackers to learn zone, gap and recognition responsibilities early.  I have no idea, but its my best guess.

          (4)   Offensive Linemen

Offensive linemen have become gargantuan in the NFL, with the trend toward tall 320-350 pound behemoths with great foot quickness to block NFL speed rushers (but not stellar straight away speed), like Leonard Davis, Bryant McKinney and Mike Williams.  

Texas produced more than projected, Florida produced less than projected and Michigan and Ohio produced far more than projected.  The national pattern of where NFL OLs originate is noticeably less clusterd and southeastern oriented than that of defensive backs (in fact, no single city has produced more than 4 NFL OLs):

     (5)  Quarterbacks

The tougest position to play on the field.  The QB has to run every facet of the offense, see the entire field and make several split decisions each play.  In addition, like kickers, they must master the intricacies of repeatable mechanics like a golfer (for throwing), and must possess enough athletic ability to scramble to buy time and make yards.

As would be expected, California produces a lot of quarterbacks, but just slightly over projections.  What is truly surprising is the NFL QB production of Washington (almost four times projections) and Pennsylvania (a little under 2 and half times projections).  Those numbers are just astounding.  Florida and Texas are below projections here.

The national map here appears vastly different from that of defensive backs (see above):

          (6) Wide Receivers

One must have a mix of great athletic ability, good hands and precision route-running to play this position.  

While it is not surprising that pass happy California would exceed projections, Florida's totals are surprisingly high, while Texas (with run-oriented high schools) is slightly below projections.  Louisana almost doubled its projected total.  

          (7)  Tight Ends

Tight ends must possess the blocking techniques of linemen and receiving and route-running abilities of WRs.  

California and Texas are slightly below projections here, but the big surprise is the huge production (3 times projections) of Alabma and Washington.  Perhaps even more notable is that Florida produced only 2 NFL TEs, which is less than 1/5th their projected amount, while at the same time, Florida produced a whopping 30 WRs.  

          (8)  Running Backs

This position requires a good mix of quickness, hardy frame, fearlessness and instincts (or, ability to see where holes will open over a wide area).  

No big surprises here.

          (9)  Kickers

This is almost all leg strength and mastery of repeatable mechanics (not an easy thing to do).  

The nuclear bombshell here is Florida.  Why 9 kickers from Florida -- over double the amount from any other state?  Perhaps more intriguing given Washington's small population, why are 4 of the NFL's 33 kickers from there?  Screw Washington, I want to know what's going on Florida, especially with BK Bobby's wide right episodes of the 1990's.  Is it possibly an influx of soccer-oriented Cuban immigrants (or their progeny)?

Hmmm.  I don't think suffering under communism in Poland makes Janikowski a subject of Fidel (though Poles love their soccer, too).  Maybe its geographic.

Not really.  In fact, they seem more spread around the state than most Florida NFL players (bunched even more in Southeast Florida).  I give up.

          (10) Punters

Texas and Georgia are above expected projections.  For whatever reason, Florida (not shown) produced only 1 punter, while producing 9 kickers (and there are about the same number of punters as kickers in the NFL).

     (B) By Metropolitan Area

You'll remember from above that cities like Los Angeles had far more NFL players than any other Metropolitan Area (61) and Houston (45), Atlana (42) and Washington DC (39) were other big players.

Thus, not surprisingly, for instance, Los Angeles has a huge lead in producing WIDE RECEIVERS:

Regarding RUNNING BACKS the first four metro areas not interesting.

Number 5, Columbus is however interesting.  Why?  Because 4 of the 5 total players Columbus has sent to the NFL are running backs (the other is a LB).  

QUARTERBACKS are also interesting:

For starters, none of the top 10 NFL producing metropolitan areas produced more than 2 QBs.  

Second, two of the Santa Barbara Metropolitan Area's 3 total NFL players are QBs (the other is an OL).  And they are Randall Cunningham and Mark Brunell.  Not too shabby, huh?

Three of of the Tacoma area's 7 NFL players are QBs (Huard brothers and John Kitna).  Actually 5 of the entire Seattle-Tacoma area's 18 total NFL players are QB's (pretty incredible because there are not many QBs in the NFL).  They are Chris Chandler, Maques Tuiassossopo, (as mentioned before) Brock Huard, Duane Huard and John Kitna (note: Drew Bledsoe and Mark Rypien are also from Washington, but far away from Seattle-Tacoma).

Interesting regarding DEFENSIVE BACKS is that Miami and Dallas both beat Los Angeles:

It is also interesting that 4 of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill's 9 NFL players are DBs

Regarding DEFENSIVE LINEMEN, nothing tremendously interesting except that Washington DC leads:

Also, 5 of San Antonio's 13 total NFL players are DLs.