State-Of-The-Team/Conference Thoughts - Ketchum

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by Godz40acres, Aug 4, 2015.

  1. Godz40acres

    Godz40acres Happy Feller

    Following are several excerpts from an "article" at OrangeBloods posted by a poster in one of their discussion threads [Link]:

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    When Charlie Strong arrived in Austin 19 months ago, the Texas Longhorns had a bit of an Aggie-problem. At the exact moment the Longhorns program was flat-lining under Mack Brown, its neighbors to the east were catching lightning in a bottle with with Johnny [Boyzelle] and their new position as the only Texas school in the SEC. While the Longhorns had dominated the Aggies in recruiting for more than a decade, it felt like the pendulum inside the state of Texas in regards to in-state recruiting power had swung swiftly and emphatically. In a moment that might eventually prove that the apocalypse is upon us, A&M was in and the Longhorns were out as yesterday’s news. College Station (of all places) became the hip spot, while the lure of Austin became stale. Basically, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together ... mass hysteria-type stuff. Yet, 19 months later it’s not the Longhorns that have an Aggie problem, rather it’s the Aggies that suddenly have an Aggie problem … again.

    One of the most underrated talking points in the upcoming 2015 college football season is the reality that the state of Texas is completely up for grabs these days in recruiting, as the stranglehold that the Aggies seemed to have in their home state with elite prospects slipped out of Kevin Sumlin’s hands almost as quickly as the recruits had fallen into them. You can only fool the foolish for so long before the fools begin to blush and feel embarrassed for being fooled. While Charlie Strong is still in a prove-it or lose-it scenario with many top recruits, the greatest irony of the last 19 months is that Sumlin has joined him in the prove-it or lose-it line. All of the "SEC is the greatest conference in the universe" talk has mostly subsided and been replaced with “When is Sumlin going to deliver some substance?” talk. This isn’t opinion, this is just the way it is less than five weeks away from the start of the 2015 season.

    Just take a look at the most updated Rivals.com Texas rankings and you’ll find all of the data points needed for this conversation. A look at the current state Top 30 for the class of 2016 shows that neither A&M nor Texas has more than one commitment from the state’s elite in the cupboard, as A&M’s highest commitment is Athens athlete Travon Fuller (No. 19) and UT’s is Arlington Lamar quarterback Shane Buechele (No. 23), despite the fact that the two schools combine for 21 commitments in the 2016 class thus far. Top recruits are waiting and watching both of the state’s power programs at the moment and it’s helped open the door for the likes of LSU (three commits from the state’s Top 11) and Baylor (three commits from the state’s Top 30) to have more recruiting success in Texas than normal, but the reality is that it’s the Wild West all over again in this state. If Texas or Texas A&M isn’t in control, then there isn’t any control in the Lone Star State. For the first time in 20 years, we’re watching a bit of a free-for-all, as schools like Oregon, Arizona State and Houston have as many or more top 30 prospects as the state’s two big dogs. While Strong is still working to convince the top in-state players that his program is full of substance and doesn’t resemble the former one that existed that wasn’t exactly so full, the hurdle that less than two years ago seemed like the biggest on the path to an in-state recruiting jackpot has removed itself. The door is cracked and waiting for Charlie Strong to kick it open, which leaves the obvious question? Can Charlie kick it open before Sumlin … or … before the Aggies bring in Sumlin's replacement?
     
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    Last edited: Aug 4, 2015
  2. Godz40acres

    Godz40acres Happy Feller

    Anatomy of the Texas roster ... With camp set to open in less than a week, I thought the moment was right to take an up-close look at the Longhorn roster going into the season in an effort to give us information we can use to formulate expectations for the coming season. Of course, I’ve broken the roster down by recruiting pedigrees. The data is revealing.

    6.1 (Five-stars)

    Johnathan Gray (2012)
    Malik Jefferson (2015)

    Breakdown: The recent NFL Draft data showed one out of every 1.4 five-stars was drafted by NFL teams and of the three departing five-stars that just left the program, two of them were snapped up in the first and third rounds. A year later and the expectation within the program is that Gray will be the program’s most important offensive player and Jefferson might be a starter by the Oklahoma game, if not earlier. Getting your hands on elite talent matters.

    6.0 (High Four-Stars)

    Kent Perkins (2013)

    Breakdown: Along with the five-star tier of talent, the high four-star performs at two, three, four and sometimes five times better than the rest of the four-star tiers in the Rivals recruiting rankings, which means having national Top 50-75 talent is almost as valuable as possessing five-stars. A year ago at this time, the Longhorns had five such players, but off-the-field issues robbed the program from ever finding out what kind of upside Kendall Sanders and Darius James truly possessed.

    5.9 (Mid Four-Stars)

    Antwuan Davis (2013)
    Jake Oliver (2013)
    Jake Raulerson (2013)
    Derick Roberson (2014)
    Edwin Freeman (2014)
    Jerrod Heard (2014)
    Kris Boyd (2015)
    Anthony Wheeler (2015)
    Holton Hill (2015)
    Chris Warren (20105)
    John Burt (2015)

    Breakdown: Two things stand out about this area of the roster. First of all, where the hell are the upperclassmen? A year later and the fruit from Mack Brown’s final three recruiting classes should make up the foundation of the program and there’s not a single junior or senior mid-level four star left in the program. Second, of the top 13-rated players that remain in the program, six are first- or second-year players.

    5.8 (Low Four-Stars)

    Sheroid Evans (2011)
    Sedrick Flowers (2011)
    Desmond Jackson (2011)
    Paul Boyette (2012)
    Tim Cole (2012)
    Shiro Davis (2012)
    Bryson Echols (2012)
    Peter Jinkens (2012)
    Daje Johnson (2012)
    Hassan Ridgeway (2012)
    Duke Thomas (2012)
    Tyrone Swoopes (2013)
    Jacorey Warrick (2013)
    Duke Catalon (2014)
    Armanti Foreman (2014)
    Lorenzo Joe (2014)
    Connor Williams (2015)
    Cecil Cherry (2015)
    Devonaire Clarington (2015)
    Patrick Vahe (2015)
    DaVante Davis (2015)
    Charles Omenihu (2015)
    Kai Locksley (2015)
    Kirk Johnson (2015)
    DeShon Elliott (2015)

    Breakdown: Really and truly, this team’s foundation for the future is made up by a lot of these kids, as evidenced by the fact that 12 of the 25 players in this group are first- and second-year players. Historical NFL Draft data from the last decade suggests three to four NFL players will emerge from a pool of players this size and that maybe one of those players is a high-end, first three rounds kind of pick. A strong case can be made that the future of Strong’s program is tied to his ability to double the amount of impact players, which means that over the course of the next two to three years, Texas needs at least 5-6 NFL-level players to emerge from this group, at least. Doubling the national averages might seem like a lot to ask, but it’s exactly what Strong did with lesser talent at Louisville.

    5.7 (High Three-Stars)

    Taylor Doyle (2011)
    Marcus Hutchins (2011)
    Alex De La Torre (2012)
    Marcus Johnson (2012)
    Alex Norman (2012)
    Dalton Santos (2012)
    Andrew Beck (2014)
    John Bonney (2014)
    Poona Ford (2014)
    Dorian Leonard (2014)
    Jermaine Roberts (2014)
    DeAndre McNeal (2015)
    Ryan Newsome (2015)
    Cameron Townsend (2015)
    Quincy Vasser (2015)

    Breakdown: This has been the tier in the rankings that has proven to be Strong’s bread and butter from a developmental level. Whereas one out of every eight high three stars on the national level emerges into a NFL draft prospect, Strong was able to double those numbers at Louisville, which is something that will be critical in the step-taking of the program.

    5.6 (Mid Three-Stars)

    Caleb Bluiett (2012)
    Bryce Cottrell (2012)
    Naashon Hughes (2013)
    Roderick Bernard (2014)
    Terrell Cuney (2014)
    Jason Hall (2014)
    Blake Whiteley (2014)
    Ronnie Major (2015)
    Brandon Hodges (2015)
    Tristian Houston (2015)
    James Locke (2015)

    Breakdown: Very sneakily, this tier of rankings has emerged as a key component for the program, as Hughes, Cottrell, Hall and Locke could all be the types of players that help the Longhorns get more out of this section of the rankings than is usually close to happening based on the national numbers (one out of every 13 get drafted by NFL teams).

    5.5 (Low Three-Stars)
    Kevin Vaccaro (2012)
    Alex Anderson (2014) G
    arrett Gray (2014)
    Jake McMillon (2014)
    Chris Nelson (2014)
    Garrett Thomas (2015)

    Breakdown: Five of the six players listed are first- or second-year players. Can the Longhorns turn one of these players into a future pro?

    5.4 (High Two-stars)
    Nick Jordan (2012)
    D'Onta Foreman (2014)
    Elijah Rodriguez (2014)
    Breckyn Hager (2015)
    Tristan Nickelson (2015)

    Breakdown: Four of the five players in this group are first- or second-year players. If Strong can get one serious contributor from this group, I think you’d have to call it a win.

    Overall thoughts: As I wrote a year ago, when you study the Rivals rankings, it's better to look at things through the prism of three tiers - elite of the elite (6.1/6.0), the middle ground (5.9/5.8/5.7) and the lower levels (5.6/5.5/5.4). Here's how the roster breaks down in terms of overall numbers:

    Elite of the elite: 3 (3.5-percent)
    Middle Ground: 53 (62.4-percent)
    Lower levels: 23 (27.1-percent)
    Not ranked: 3 (3.5-percent)

    There’s good news and bad news. Let’s get the bad out of the way. The Longhorns have gone from signing five or six national top 75 type prospects in every class to having only three on the entire roster. There simply is no quick fix to the talent-level in the program that must be enhanced. It’s hard to fathom that the only elite prospects left in the program are Gray and Perkins, with Jefferson representing the only incoming 2015 signee of that quality. When Texas won the national title in 2005, it did so with 10 players in the starting line-up with elite-level recruiting pedigrees (and that does not include Jamaal Charles, Cedric Griffin or Larry Dibbles). TEN. The good news is that the raw talent in the program is higher in Austin in Strong’s second season than it was at Louisville, and it’s not even close. Strong’s ability to turn chicken nothing into chicken salad should be enhanced by a the fact that he has a roster that only needs to be cultivated over time. The other piece of good news is the reality that most of the program’s top-end raw talent belongs among the underclassmen, a note that indicates potential trouble in the immediate, but quite a bit of hope for the long-term.
     
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  3. Godz40acres

    Godz40acres Happy Feller

    Scattershooting on the Longhorns …

    -- I don’t see any way Connor Williams isn’t starting for the Longhorns against Notre Dame? I’m not sure I can even come up with the team’s true No. 3 tackle at the moment. It’s probably JUCO transfer Brandon Hodges, but he played so much guard in the spring that it makes you wonder if he’s anything more than an emergency option outside.

    -- Armanti Foreman’s positioning in the wide receiver pecking order fascinated me because it seems obvious to me that he’s among the most talented players they have at the position, but it rarely seems like Charlie Strong mentions him as a guy they are counting on. Check out his comments on the position during Big 12 Media Day.

    I went back and looked at the entire transcript and his name wasn’t mentioned one time, which is incredibly hard to believe when you consider the plays he made against Oklahoma State and TCU in the team’s final two regular season games. For those that have forgotten, he posted six catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns in those two games.

    -- The fact that current players are calling incoming freshman DaVante Davis by the nickname “Mykkele” cracks me up more than it probably should. There’s a better than fair shot he doesn't even known who in the hell Mykkele is.

    -- The recruitment of La Grange (2017) running back J.K. Dobbins is a fascinating one because it will give us a chance to get a feel for the temperature in the room as it relates to UT’s current recruiting position/momentum in regards to competing head-to-head with the Aggies. With so many 2016 battles still ongoing between the two schools, Mark Jackson was a head-to-head win for the Aggies in late May, but he’s a second-tier, low-four star target and outside of him, there’s not a big-time commitment on A&M's 2016 commitment sheet that you’d label as a must-have in this year’s class. If anything, the commitment of 2017 star wide receiver Damion Miller to Texas in June and Tren'Davian Dickson in July were the last two punches landed in this conversation and a commitment by Dobbins to the Longhorns would give Texas a 2-0 lead over the Aggies in 2017 head-to-heads and three straight head-to-head wins across two classes.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 4, 2015
  4. Godz40acres

    Godz40acres Happy Feller

    Who let Baylor skip in front of the line?

    One of the seemingly tried and true rules of college football is that the have-nots have to prove they can play with the have-everythings in the sport before any kind of real street cred is given and the only way that really happens is by scheduling tough out of conference opponents and winning BCS games that matter against BCS opponents that matter. When Boise State beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, that program earned its respect. When Louisville beat Florida in the Sugar Bowl, Charlie Strong’s program earned its respect. Perhaps the most interesting thing about the release of the initial Top 25 Coaches Poll this week is the fact that Baylor seems to have been able to skip the process of proving itself to the rest of the nation, at least that’s the message that seemed to be given when the Bears debuted at No. 4 over a host of proven programs.

    Let’s keep it real with Baylor for a second and this comes from someone that wore green and gold as a child all the way through my teenage years … Baylor hasn’t really proven anything other than it can conquer the Big 12 when Texas and Oklahoma are shambles of their normal profile from most of the last two decades. In each of the last two seasons Baylor has won a down Big 12, the Bears were exposed in losses to Central Florida and Michigan State in bowl games and because the Bears won’t schedule anyone with a pulse in non-conference, only failure exists in these important spotlight moments. Yet, there the Bears are without a proven quarterback sitting in the top four in front of Oregon and … wait for it … the same Michigan State team that beat Baylor in the Cotton Bowl earlier this year and one that returns starting quarterback Connor Cook. The Bears don’t play anyone better than West Virginia before mid-November, which means that they're only a few steps away from the finish line before the race ever begins, in part because the coaches have given Art Briles’ program exactly the kind of pass it would never give a Boise State, even though BSU had exactly the kind of skins on the wall that Baylor doesn’t.
     
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  5. BevoJoe

    BevoJoe 10,000+ Posts

    Good stuff Godz!! Thanks!
     
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  6. WorsterMan

    WorsterMan SEC here we come!!

    WOW!

    Godz is really using his vast and deep NSA network to gather all this good intell on the Horns! Very impressive. :bow:
     
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    Last edited: Aug 4, 2015
  7. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    OB's is a homer site with Aggie like blind following. If you like constant sunshine about Swoopes, Strong, and Patterson, that's the place to go. Don't dare point out any legit criticism of the status quo, it's frowned upon.
     
  8. Dionysus

    Dionysus Idoit Admin

    Excellent write-up, @Godz40acres — thanks!

    The observation on Baylor is important. I don’t know how they have gotten a free pass like that. They are obviously a quality team in recent years, but they should get some substantive wins under their belt before garnering the respect they seem to have in the polls.

    And we need to beat their *** this year.
     
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  9. WorsterMan

    WorsterMan SEC here we come!!

    Yes, with extreme prejudice!!!:hookem:
     
  10. beer_dog

    beer_dog 100+ Posts

    You take Johnny alcoholic out of the picture and aggy has had no advantage in recruiting. The records prove it.
     
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  11. WorsterMan

    WorsterMan SEC here we come!!

    This gives me a great deal of hope.
     
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  12. WorsterMan

    WorsterMan SEC here we come!!

    After reading the piece re: Baylor I was curious about their OCC schedule for 2015:

    SMU
    Lamar
    Rice

    At least Buffalo and Northwestern La are not on the list, but that is still a pretty weak schedule. SMU was 1-11 last season the other 2 had winning records.
     

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