For us, assuming we are still ranked #8 by the committee (our RPI fell to #12 and teams that were 3-seeds in the last reveal -- UCLA & Tennessee are now ahead of us in the RPI rankings) it all comes down to the placement of SEC teams, Miss. State and South Carolina.
In the Feb. 19th reveal, Miss. State was the overall #2 national seed behind UConn. Since then, only one loss in the SEC tourney championship game to #7 South Carolina. And, MSU fell to #5 in RPI (one spot lower than Baylor). If the committee keeps MSU at #2, then they can't have SC at #7 and in the same regional.
Why should MSU stay at #2 overall? Well, since the final reveal, #3/4 Louisville lost to UConn, but beat #4/3 Notre Dame. ND only lost to Louisville in the ACC championship game. So, all those teams lost once. MSU only has one loss on the season; so, Crème doesn't have them moving from their #2 spot.
Could Baylor leapfrog any of those 3 teams? They just don't come close to matching the number of Top 50 and Top 100 RPI wins. So, my answer is a resounding "NO".
Most think #6 Oregon will stay out West. But, the committee could always go against geography and follow more of a true S-curve format for those Top 8 teams. SC finished the year with wins over Tennessee, Georgia, and MSU; very impressive. Enough to vault USC to #6 over Oregon? All Oregon did to finish the season was beat UCLA and Stanford to win the PAC tourney.
So, no one ranked in the Top 8 in the last reveal really faltered since then. Texas suffered two losses to Baylor; so, we either stay ranked #8 or fall behind teams like UCLA and/or Tennessee.
For once, I really want Crème to be right and we get a #2 seed opposite MSU in Kansas City.
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Last edited: Mar 12, 2018