Heightened Expectations

It’s a topic that seems to have popped up in several threads but I thought I’d create a dedicated thread to keep from cluttering others (and make it easier for me to follow). Karen Aston has revived the program since her hiring, winning 20+ games every year except her 1st and bringing in very impressive recruiting classes. Four straight Sweet 16s and an Elite 8 is something every Texas fan would’ve jumped at 4 seasons ago but, as the program has become more successful, the expectations have shifted (as they should).

Just 2 seasons ago, I remember a half court offense that was just painful to watch. I think most of us expected improvement with the hiring of Jamie Carey and though I can’t attribute it all to her, we have seen improved player/ball movement in half court sets. Points per game has increased every season since 2014-2015 with the biggest jump from 2016-2017 to 2017-2018 and, the last 3 games notwithstanding, turnovers have dropped.

• 2013-2014: 69.7 points, 18.2 TO per game
• 2014-2015: 67.7 and 16.3
• 2015-2016: 71.1 and 15.9
• 2016-2017: 74.0 and 15.2
• 2017-2018: 80.7 and 14.9

Texas was a turnover machine in the tourney (19.3/game) with sloppy play coming from all quarters. Against UCLA, the 3 starting upperclassmen guards and next season’s probable starting PG accounted for 16 of 21 TOs (McCarty 5, Higgs 5, Atkins 3, Sutton 3). By comparison, the Longhorns had 9 total turnovers in the UCONN game when the starting 5 had 1 each.

Fast-paced, transition teams will always have a tendency to turn the ball over at a higher rate which is why I would be content averaging between 12-13.

Quite a few posters have expressed frustration with Karen’s refusal to deploy zone defenses more often if only to throw opponents’ rhythm off. I agree but the other reason I’d like to see it more often is that the offense would see more of it in practices and gain some level of comfort. Maybe none of the current assistant coaches have experience enough to teach/implement it effectively but Texas is bringing in a recruiting class that, on paper, would make a strong case for more than occasional use of the zone. Sedona and Charli are long and athletic and, along with Joyner, would make the baseline of a 2-3 zone awfully tough to contend with. If Rellah is back, it would also help cover some of the defensive issues she had this season. If no one on the staff has the expertise, maybe CDC could be convinced to carve out a bit of change to hire a ‘tutor’ for the next 6-8 months before the start of next season. The NCAA probably has some nonsense rule about such a move but no stone (or loophole) should be left unturned.

As competitive and passionate as she is about the game and the Longhorns, Coach Aston hopefully realizes that the program has reached a high level plateau and some adjustments are necessary to break through. Fans of Texas softball have seen mediocrity become the order of the day without any evidence of discontent emanating from the Athletic Department so I doubt Karen Aston gets much criticism coming from that direction. In that case, we fans have to hope she is a good enough coach to realize that even though she’s a successful D1 Head Coach, she may not have all the answers herself. For the record, I think she is.

@LutherIsMyDog mentioned next season’s expectations in another post and I agree that Baylor will be an even more overwhelming favorite in the Big 12 next season. However, Texas is at the point where the team should be reloading rather than rebuilding. The Horns should become a much better team as the season wears on but if Texas finishes the conference lower than 2nd, I would consider the season a disappointment. Fair or not, it’s the cost of success.

 

I'm happy with the program. I agree with others who have said that a season also has to have a touch of luck - good and bad. Look at WBB "machines" that haven't gotten their expected championship because they had the bad "luck" to run into an opponent that had their number that particular year (UConn).

Updated season winning percentages.


We experienced the Elite Eight "spike" in 2015 and so every year after that seems to be a disappointment. UCLA hadn't been to the EE since the 90's, so I'll take what we've experienced so far with no gripes.

 

No doubt... I was telling a friend a few days ago I'd much rather be a perennial 2 or 3 seed and Sweet 16 participant than what we experienced between 1991 and 2013 (excluding 2003). I certainly have an enormous amount of respect and appreciation for the program elevation that Aston's recruiting prowess created. What I won't do is quietly accept that's about as good as it's going to get, when an honest, realistic self-assessment of one's coaching philosophies/abilities is due and would most likely make all the difference in taking us up that extra notch.

Karen is obviously a very bright individual, otherwise she wouldn't be able to recruit as successfully as she has. Intellectually she has what it takes to become a very good coach. That said, I'm going to be hard on her and expect more from her. After all, that's what she and every other coach demands of their players. I'd love nothing more than her to shut me up with the results she should be getting given the talent she's working with.

 

Some very thoughtful stuff in this thread. Appreciate it. Couldn't agree more - when you're attempting to build an elite program - REALLY elite - every single person involved must get better including all coaches. How many times does Aston have to be outcoached to see that she has to get better? All I see in her post-game quotes are excuses, which is really infuriating.

The interesting thing that's missing here though is the true X factor for success - player connection to the Coach. True buy-in to the coach's philosophy. Go back and look at your DVR'd games - watch body language - Texas' players seem to be tuning Karen out -- which puts her squarely in the dreaded danger zone.

When kids are respectful because they're nice (too nice) kids - but they're clearly NOT listening to you, you are on your way out. It's just a matter of time. Mark this day as the beginning of the end for Aston. Her negative, yelling, overbearing style does not suit this generation of kids. We saw it in a few of the conference games - and we saw it again against UCLA a few days ago. She's having to coach effort, and nothing signals the death march like not being able to motivate your team. They. Have. Tuned. Her. Out. And I personally don't think what we have coming back is good enough to challenge for a Big 12 championship - which means we'll be more reliant (word?) on better coaching. Yikes.

 

Sorry not sorry. JMO, but I don't agree with this at all. You can't have 4 years of Sweet Sixteen appearances with teams that tune out the coach. No way. The players consistently look over to Coach Aston to see what she wants the play to be. You can see a player over talking to her during free throw attempts, getting ready for an in-bounds play, etc. That to me, is not tuning out your coach. We've consistently heard Brooke and Ariel talk about buying into the system Coach A has for the last four years. I'm not looking to argue my opinion either. I just think this is way off, and it's my opinion.

 

I haven't seen that behavior from Karen Aston.

 

Coach Aston obviously can and needs to improve as a coach in terms of X’s and O’s but I’m not buying this nonsense either.

 

Agree - she’s Mary Poppins compared to Mulkey. I watch quite a few games not involving Texas and Coach Aston does no more yelling than many of the coaches I’ve observed this year including Staley, McGraw, Walz, Vanderveer, Schaefer and several others.

 

While I applaud "newbies" to this board, I just don't like some of the "know it all" attitudes...the long-time fans (myself included) will not agree with statements that are based on obvious short-term observations..that being said, it IS all food for thought..
It was a pretty good season, but that last game was an awful way to go out..what a bad taste that leaves in all our mouths..

 

I think what @Hornzupp said has some merit to it... IF they AREN'T completely tuning her out, then her delivery isn't fully resonating with them. Player/coach connection is paramount in a well-coached team... and well-coached teams don't have the same deficiencies year in year out even though rosters change. There's so much negativity in Aston's body language and very seldom ever any words of encouragement or patient teaching when players come out of a game. One would have to think there's at least SOME tuning out going on... it's human nature to want to block out negativity.

 

Absolutely agree. And some on here have criticized Coach Aston not for stupid body language but about her stoic look on her face during games.

 

The primary problem I see with the ‘team tuning her out’ narrative is recruiting. When visiting players visit Texas, they are not followed around by North Korean style monitors. They spend time with the players and, I don’t care how ‘nice’ they might be, I find it hard to believe they would sell a coach they don’t believe can succeed or has not helped them develop. Would one of the top recruits in the nation flip from UCONN to Texas if the current players don’t believe in the coach? Charli had her pick of any program that was closer to Houston than Connecticut but chose UT. Sedona is a regular on campus and would have witnessed some of the players ignoring Coach Aston. Not only that but the best players would be ditching the program for other schools in a heartbeat.

 

DFW Horn, thanks for the great thread and statistical proof you looked up to show our progress. That helped me really realize how far we've come. And racerx also for the great graph. I don't agree with a single word Hornzupp has written. Karen is one of the few coaches I've seen who actually takes some personal responsibility and even blames herself at times. I don't believe I can even think of a time I've heard another coach do that. She doesn't make excuses any more than any other coach --- she tries to explain her understanding of what "went wrong" when something does, which is what she should do and it always sounds quite reasonable to me. The body language thing --- I have no idea what Hornzupp means. I sense that Karen is a very supportive coach and the players have a great connection with her. If not, she certainly must be a good actress, because she evidently comes across favorably to a lot of recruits.

 

I see your point, but do UConn players tune out Geno, did Summit’s players tune her out? I’m sure some did, but both schools have a lot of hardware.

If the players aren’t listening, she should be on her way out. You are right about that. There seems to be a fine line that needs to be learned by Aston. And learning about zone defense.

 

You may want to go back and check yourself because I never said anything about "not buying the comments," and it invalidates anything you said thereafter. SMH...

 

Why isn't there a dislike button for posts like this?

 

Hornzupp is so full of it.

Coach A has plenty to learn, as does every head coach who hasn't been in charge of a program for more than 10 years; but her job is one of the safest on campus. Her program continues to improve.

 

Bliss is the Ignore feature. I suspect a “fan” or two actually prefer green & yellow and are here to stir the pot with utter nonsense.

 

OK, enough. Let's start talking about the outlook for next season. Do you want to do it here or create a separate thread?

 

Great idea! I vote for a separate thread.

 

Agreed. This one went sideways.

 

Agreed. Having to replace Ariel and Brooke will be difficult but I think they’ll actually be a better defensive team next year because of Sedona’s abilities as a shot blocker/rim protector.

And although young, Texas will have the size to matchup with Baylor. The obvious question marks will be on the perimeter. I don’t have any doubts about Sug, Chasity, and the other young perimeter players abilities but experience is the only issue IMO.

 

It will be interesting next year on the Starting Lineup.
I would start.
A.Sutton
L.Higgs
J.Taylor
J.Holmes
C.Collier

 

I took the liberty of starting Speculations for Next Year.

Kurupt's last comment on this thread is the start of the new one.

 

That graph shows less of a difference than I would have guessed. Granted we at least seem to be trending in a better direction but overall, we still aren't performing better than we were 15 years ago.

 

the question in looking at stats is the time period you look at. The last 15 years have not been bad. Not what we want but not bad. I would have looked at the time frame from about five years after the National Championship season to now for a better comparison. The time period when Texas went to the final four with Heather, Stacy, etc was the last highlight of Jody's career. That was more of an outlier than the norm.

 

Here you go!

 

Thanks, racer!

 

Texas was expected to win the NC in 85, 87, 04 ... and did not, even with experienced players and a hall of fame coach. It is difficult to win it all ... Pat's era is over and Geno's will be eventually. Players go anywhere/everywhere and we are seeing more exciting women's BB everywhere.