The First 100 days

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by theiioftx, Nov 10, 2016.

  1. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Decades of work to get NAFTA redone

     
    • Winner Winner x 2
  2. ProdigalHorn

    ProdigalHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Is it me or does it look like the size of the smile is inversely proportioned to the length of time on SCOTUS? Clarence Thomas may be the exception to that.
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  3. Sangre Naranjada

    Sangre Naranjada 10,000+ Posts

    I'm not sure Ginsberg can summon the energy to smile.
     
  4. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Ginsberg sleeps with her eyes open.
     
  5. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Gary Shilling, one of the few who predicted the housing crisis in advance, says Trump will win the tariff war with China in the long run --

    "Here's the point that I continue to make. When you've got plenty of supply in the world, and I think you do — plenty of industrial capability, plenty of raw materials and so on — it's the buyer that has the upper hand not the seller. The buyer has the ultimate power and who's the buyer? US is the buyer, China is the seller. And besides that, if you say, if we weren't buying all those consumer goods from China, and you and I enjoy them, they're cheap, they're great. But if we weren't buying them, where would China sell them? They have no other place to sell them, and in the meanwhile, China's growth is slowing.

    They've got a problem of huge debt expansion they're trying to curb, they're trying to deal with a shadow lending — a shadow banking system and so on and so forth. China isn't going to collapse obviously, but I think in this trade war, that the US has the upper hand.

    * * *

    I mean, people say nobody wins trade wars. Yeah, in the short-run you don't, but in the long-run, if it's a matter of changing what has been the world exporting to the US and the US buying it and what do we do? We give them paper. That's why they own half of our treasuries. I think that is being reversed and in the long-run, the US will be better off."

    The whole answer is worth the read, if you are interested in this sort of thing. It's not long.

    I obviously agree with his view and think its consistent with what I wrote above.
    The First 100 days

    The legendary economist who predicted the housing crisis says the US will win the trade war
     
  6. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    I feel certain Pelosi does, the Botox prevents them from ever closing
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  7. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Sounds like Trump was able to get a concession out of Xi at the G-20 to get China to classify fentanyl as a controlled substance in China.
    If so, would be a big step in combating opioid crisis as China floods North America with fentanyl
     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Is that really a problem? Most of the opioid problem is from over-prescribing by doctors. I don't think that addresses the issue much.
     
  9. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    I read 38000 deaths per year caused by fentanyl
     
  10. Sangre Naranjada

    Sangre Naranjada 10,000+ Posts

    And frankly, I see that as purging the shallow end of the gene pool.
     
  11. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    mchammer, does it matter where the fentanyl comes from? If China considers it a controlled substance, does that mean there is less supply in the US? Does that mean doctors prescribe it less? Does that change working class depression?

    I don't think this action addresses the source of the problem at all.
     
  12. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Black market fentanyl can be sold as different analogs of varying strength. It’s too dangerous to use. Pill popping of approved drugs from prescription is safer.
     
  13. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    It is. Black market drugs don't have consistent purity or potency. The solution to that problem is legalization and transparent markets. Adding more government control adds more incentive to increase potency and less reason to address purity. My prediction is the problem gets worse as a result.
     
  14. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    Huh?
     
  15. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    iatrogenic, much of the opioid issue is due to working class males being depressed and turning to drugs like fentanyl. If you don't address that regulations in China aren't going to do anything.
     
  16. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Good heavens guys this may not fix the problem - read will not 'fix' the problem - but let's get something to start. Maybe its a symbol, maybe it's just nothing but h*** let's try to start somewhere.
     
  17. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    You don't just start enacting laws and regulations for no reason. Those things have unintended consequences that are harmful. That is the definition of foolishness.
     
  18. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Really, no reason? Ok I'll bow to more logical reasoning.
     
  19. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    I’m not sure depression is the cause. I’m also not sure that “working class” fits either. You are dead on with your comment about doctors over prescribing though.
     
  20. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    iatrogenic, regardless if I characterize the situation correctly, would you agree that the causes of addiction and specific solutions need to be focused on instead of restricting supply? When has that ever worked?
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  21. Garmel

    Garmel 5,000+ Posts

  22. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    • Like Like x 1
  23. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    That would be great, but I don't see how we can prevent some people from seeking the "reward" from doing drugs. Education about the addictive powers of opioids and consequences of being addicted are obvious answers, but trying to restrict supply of illegal drugs is not a bad idea.

    Stopping illegals (mules and suppliers from Nayarit) from entering the U.S., closing down pill mills, and, yes, regulating the drug companies better would have the greatest positive effect. Doing so would have prevented the majority of the heroin/opioid problem.
     
  24. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    What part of the history of the drug war have you need seen?

    You state restricting supply will stop the problem. The problem is that the opioid addiction problem came from the fact that it was one of the easier, cheaper drugs available. You restrict that and the next drug fad will happen.
     
  25. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    [​IMG]

    "After registering a peak in 2014, deaths due to terrorism have dropped 44 percent, in large part due to the U.S. war on ISIS, according to an international group.

    The sixth edition of the Global Terrorism Index said that the improvement in thwarting terrorism death was the best since 2004.

    “The total number of deaths fell by 27 per cent between 2016 and 2017, with the largest falls occurring in Iraq and Syria. Iraq recorded over 5,000 fewer deaths from terrorism in 2017, while Syria recorded over 1,000 fewer deaths. The fall in deaths was reflected in scores on the GTI, with 94 countries improving, compared to 46 that deteriorated. This is the highest number of countries to record a year on year improvement since 2004 and reflects the increased emphasis placed on countering terrorism around the world since the surge in violence in 2013,” said the report produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace...."

    US war on ISIS scores 44 percent drop in terrorism deaths
     
  26. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Not sure what the definition for "deaths from terrorism" is, and the graph contradicts the headline. It looks like US intervention has increased not decreased death regardless of the definition. Not sure I would tout a slight dip from a massive peak as progress. Once the death rate goes back to 2001 levels, then we can celebrate.
     
  27. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    "The federal government has discovered a massive new reserve of oil and natural gas in Texas and New Mexico that it says has the “largest continuous oil and gas resource potential ever assessed.”

    “Christmas came a few weeks early this year,” Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke said of the new reserve, which is believed to have enough energy to fuel the U.S. for nearly seven years..."

    Oil & Natural Gas -- U.S. Feds Discover Largest Oil, Natural-Gas Reserve in History | National Review
     
    • Like Like x 2
  28. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    That argument is similar to the "why eat when your just going to get hungry again?". If you think the costs of changing human nature are less than the costs of restricting the supply of illegal drugs, by all means we should change human nature. I just happen to disagree with you in this instance.
     
  29. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Today was NFP release. US employers added 155k jobs in November, the 98th straight month of growth. The unemployment rate held at 3.7%, a multi-decade low

    Solid household survey: Employment up 233k, unemployment down 100k, labor force up 133k. (Participation rate unchanged after last month's uptick.)

    Average earnings were up 6 cents/hour, +3.1% over the past year. That's the same year-over-year rate as last month, when wage growth was supposedly artificially inflated by hurricane effects.

    The unemployment rate for Americans with just a high school diploma (or GED) was 3.5% in November, the lowest since 2000.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2018
  30. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    There has been much chatter about "a manufacturing slowdown" given GM, tariff concerns, etc.

    But no sign of that in jobs report: +27k manufacturing jobs in November, continuing strong run. (Slight decline in auto manufacturing jobs, though.)

    [​IMG]
     

Share This Page