Random Offseason News

Pretty safe bet. I think we'd probably be around there at 9-3. Or 9-4 with a bowl loss.

 

If Texas is 9-3, Tom is gone in 2 years. If he can't get it done this year, he ain't going to get it done and we should start looking for the next HC

 

9-3 is quite reasonable considering we were a handful of snaps from being 5-7 last year.

 

This is true, and I always appreciate your well-reasoned analysis, but we were also a handful of snaps from 9-3 (Iowa St, TCU) last year.

 

So you agree that 9-3 is reasonable

People get mad when I look at results and be realistic and stuff. I'd love to go 11-1 but we'd need to go back 11 years to find something similar. I also don't think that 9-3 is a firable offense for Herman. Shaka Smart, otoh...

 

Yes...certainly.
I see potential losses to 2 teams and one more won't suprise too much. O/U for losses is 2.65. Lol
If we lose just 1 regular season game that is a huge step forward...an eagle. 2 - still "below" par. 3 - I'll call adjusted par. 4 or more - bogey territory
One caveat...I expect us to beat ou, so that will help win/loss appearance either way.
And Shaka....I'm not a fan.

 

Outside of a pandemic shortened season, I believe 10-2 to be very achievable & realistic for this team. Perhaps "reasonable" on the surface, 9-3 might be iffy for TH. Del Conte is patient, but he inherited TH so his loyalty is limited and will only go so far.

9-3 - if the 3 include ANOTHER loss to ou, LSU & say Okie Lite or Bailer, then the Horns likely won't even PLAY in the 2020 Big XII Championship Game. That would put a great deal of pressure on TH to not only win the 2020 bowl game but win the conference championship in 2021.... or he might be gone.

8-4 in 2020 regular season and TH will be on the hot seat list IMO.

 

I think this season will not count. UGH

 

If he gets his $5 million, it sure as hell counts.

 

OUCH!

 

I see us beating OK, and LSU. I am more afraid of OKLite. So at least 11-1 for the regular season.

 

This kind of stuff hurts...and it usually seems like it's from Ohio state commits. Makes you wonder if its orchestrated.
No small matter. Notice the #of followers/views of the college football outlet that is "publicizing " this..
475,000
Ohio State Commit Blasts Texas Football In Recent Social Media Post

 

It's exactly what I would say about Texas if I wanted to negatively recruit against them, too. For in-state purposes alone, we had 2 Texas HS kids drafted. Everyone from Baylor to Ohio State to OU to Tulsa to Tech easily matched that.

I think it was the TCU loss or the KU mismanaged **** game last year that set me off, but I think we're still stuck in that post-2009 malaise with regard to the culture of the program and what coaches are supposed to be doing for recruiting/talent purposes, and then the X's and O's stuff behind the scenes. Herman seems to be on par with Mack circa 2012 right now. Can't figure out which assistant isn't getting it done, plucking talent from anywhere without regard to attitude/coach-ability, not coaching them to the level where they'll be in a draftable position, etc. Mack went to the Alamo Bowl in those last 2 seasons, and that's the "rut" we're kind of stuck in now. When we win, it's in spite of our flaws. It's not because we're dominant.

 

Another article pimping Ta'Quon Graham as a beneficiary of the new 4-man front
Ta'Quon Graham key to anticipated resurgence of Texas D-line

 

Of course it is orchestrated. It also is a dumb criticism. Day inherited a loaded Ohio State team thanks to Urban. Herman inherited a dumpster fire thanks to Charlie.

Also, to criticize Herman for player development five years ago when he was the Houston coach is just plain stupid. Herman has not even had his first graduating class yet of his guys.

Let's look at the facts, the latest, most recent information for 2020.

Draft eligible Longhorns for 2020 NFL Draft:
Brandon Jones 4* DRAFTED
Dev Duverney 4* DRAFTED
Collin Johnson 4* DRAFTED
Zack Shack 3* SIGNED UFA
Malcom Roach 3* SIGNED UFA
Jamari Chisholm 3* undrafted
Kirk Johnson 3* undrafted
John Burt 4* undrafted
Jeff McCulloch 4* undrafted

FACT: 3 of 5 four stars coached by Herman made it to the NFL, that is 60%
FACT: 2 of 4 three stars coached by Herman made it to the NFL, that is 50% of three stars! Where is the credit for that?

Kids are gonna believe what they want to believe I guess. Hype over facts in this twitterverse age.

 

Sorry for the duplicity from the recruiting thread, but wanted to squeeze in one more comment on the player development criticism...
You guys have good comments on the Ohio state commits criticism. Similar to AustinBill and BadAs comments I'll add that TH has been here 3 years now. A recruit typically goes from on campus to NFL in 3-4 years, right? Not really enough "data" to confirm or disprove anything in that regard. Only 2-3 schools in the country with new coaches could boast anything better....especially if an already existing pipeline wasnt well-established (LSU, Ohio st, etc.)
The whole notion is massive hyperbole.
And I think we are trending in the right direction, be it ever so slowly. If UT football was a stock and I was looking for some names right now I think it would look attractive vs peers.

 

I don't think the criticism is being levied at Herman's expense (although that definitely fans the flames for tOSU fans); I think it's the program in general. It's not like Mack and Charlie were doing much to help dissuade that notion. One guy drafted in each of 2016-17. Only 2 in 2019. No one in 2014.

I'd cry-laugh if a coach from Texas walked into my living room and said "but what about all of those UFA's we had?"

 

Here's the list going back to our post-national championship loss malaise for our 4/5 star guys and their Draft status (just using Rivals rankings):
2010: 21, 1 (4.76%)
2011: 16, 2 (12.5%)
2012: 17, 1 (5.88%)
2013: 9, 0
2014: 6, 0
2015: 15, 5 (33.33%)
2016: 14, 3 (21.43%)

Total: 98, 12 (12.24%)

For 2017, I expect Sam to get drafted. Maybe Thompson if he has a resurgence. But that's not going to move the needle for a higher draft rate of this select group, especially considering we only have 5 guys remaining from that class who fit the "4-5 star" rating.

It's important for kids who are 4/5 star right now to know that they're on the right path to the NFL, even if we do seem to have a better track record of getting those 3-star guys to play up to a higher level like Cosmi. Maybe a lot of those guys shouldn't be 4/5 star to begin with, but it doesn't change the poor outcomes we've had.

 

Good post...
Though I would suggest we have more players than in recent memory on roster currently who are developing at a rate which should boost these numbers moving forward.

 

Absolutely. And Herman should/will get credit for that when the time comes. It's almost like you can't negatively recruit against someone else's draft rate if their coach hasn't been in place for 5+ years.

Looking at the future classes, here's my best guesses for "draftability" of all the 4/5 star guys again (using Rivals). I'll be generous with the near-draftable.
2017 - 8, 3 (Sam, Thompson, Bimage) - 37.5%
2018 - 18, 7 (Ossai, Sterns, Foster, Green, Jamison, Coburn, Ingram) - 38.89% There's honestly still room for guys like Cook, Overshown, Adeoye, and maybe Angilau to get there.

 

Sorry, 11, but you can negatively recruit against a guy before the ink is dry on his contract. Do these kids check, even with the internet? Doubtful - coach Jones said it so it has to be true, he hasn't lied to me yet. It's not like he's Kevin Sumlin or something.

 

Oh I completely agree. I was replying more to Badass for saying that Herman inherited a dumpster fire when I don't think the criticism of the Ohio State recruit was levied at Herman. It's at Texas in general.

Who was the guy on the NFL Draft thread that said our standard should be 7 draftees every year? It's that kind of prognostication that keeps me up at night.

 

11,

I agree, but this criticism goes back to the days of Puppy Dog Madden, and how soft our players were. Nobody, particularly Mack Brown, wanted to hear it or do anything to correct it. It's one thing when Sumlin is using it to lie to recruits, but when NFL front offices are talking about it, something should have been done. Brown took HS super stars and turned them into marshmellows. I'm never sure what Strong was trying to do, but it didn't work, and did not improve our image.

 

I also think that other teams (mostly SEC) seem to nab the players who already have established positions by the time they're juniors in HS and can focus a lot more on the conditioning aspect because the responsibilities of the position coaches are "lighter" from an X's and O's standpoint.

And, even way before Mack, I think the kind of players that ended up at Texas knew their **** smelled like ice cream. It was always "We're Texas" and that was that... damn the results on the field. I never got that vibe from OU or Miami or Ohio State. People knew that if the Boz lost a game, those players were basically dead to the fans for the rest of the season. Not here. I don't think we'll ever quite shake that stigma.

 

I don't appreciate them sullying the name of the Father of Texas like that
They should probably be relocated to Oklahoma