MC
Here are 4 charts showing the current daily CV19 positive tests to look at the trends that CV19 has in the US. When we put them all together we get one picture but the components are important.
Texas has been increasing since late May and has reached its highest levels in early July. The Texas chart is simliar for CA, FL, AZ, GA etc which are over 100M population. Any deaths associated with the current cases are a lagging indicator that will show up in the next 4 weeks plus any new infections. The count is increasing.
The NY chart indicates a fast start and early peak by Apr 8th with a steady decline to the current 600+ daily rate. NY was running 1200/day in late May. The NY chart is similiar pattern for NJ, IL, MA, MI, CT etc and represents 80M population. The count is in decline.
The daily chart for the US shows an early NY peak at Apr 8 of 30K+ cases a steady decline to late May to 22K cases and a significant increase to July 10 to 60K+ cases. The NY East peak was followed by a decline and then the TX South increase took over. The US is at double the NY peak. The count is increasing.
The Ohio chart represents a third group that have a much different pattern than TX SW and NY East. The Ohio chart is similair to LA, WA, VA. IA, IN, MO, KS with an early Apr peak followed by a decline to June and an increase to Jul. The Ohio MW group has a 65M population. The count is increasing.
The direction of CV19 as it works its way through the south and middle on the US appears to be follow population density. The current trends of July as CV19 works its way across the US is an increasing count of daily cases to record levels in July.
Hopefully advances in treatment, early hospitalization and early detection by testing will have a positive impact on the death counts while we wait for vaccines and herd immunity to arrive.
We are a long way to 15% or 50M cases in the US.
Just one opinion.
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