2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

One more aspect to Arizona - Republicans requested ~14k more ballots than Democrats in early voting but are returning them slower

 

In one Q, the USA recovered ~2/3 of the GDP lost due to the virus from China

This figure is 2X the previous quarterly record, which was set ~70 years ago

 

Florida early in person
Thurs am update -- Rs +428,554

Also as of this am
Palm Beach Early Voting -- Rs +2,100
Miami-Dade Early Voting -- Rs +7,000
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edit - now Rs +429,181 (growing by the hour)

 

Sports media twitter is coming hard after poor ol Jack Nicklaus today

 

But now they like us again

 

Good for Jack.

f the twitterhaters

 

The economy is only down 3-4% from this time last year.

 

I will be gobsmacked if they didnt have copies
But wow the DMC is scary And scared

 

Please don't ever use the phrase "bang Nancy" again. I lost my breakfast.

 

I wouldn't do Pelosi with your gavel.

 

North Carolina update
The Dem EV lead fell last night to ~285k (In 2016, their EV lead was ~310k going in, when Hillary lost by 3 points)
The current estimate for their 2020 EV lead going into election day is now ~230k
If this holds, Rs project to win NC by 4 points

Also, the key black vote demographic is currently below 20% (now at just 19.78%)
Biden will need more than that to win NC

 

Junk poll but seems accurate here.

 

Trump retweets this guy:

 

Now Rs +430,165
Should have said 'growling by the minute'
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edit -- Now Rs +431,154
And Dem EV lead (in vote by mail + in person) down to D+189,754

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Remember that these are inferences based off voter registration (has nothing to do with polling). If Dems crush it with independents in Florida (which arent reflected), Biden would still have a good chance. But that is a huge IF.

Likewise, another weakness of this type of projection is that they do not include "crossovers." There will be some, but I cant see very many R-to-D crossovers with Trump's super high approval rate among registered Republicans. But, as with all things, we will see

 

And that is with rounding (I assume without digging in)

 

Not all states provide this same level of EV breakdown as North Carolina
One way to try and project a national trend on black vote is to extrapolate the NC data, which naturally carries a wider MOE. Still, if we do this --

Looks like the black vote will be down ~4% in NC
Of those who do vote, Trump may get 15%
If we assume national black turnout down 5% and that Trump takes another 15% of the turnout, then Dems are set to lose a combined 4-5 million black votes in 2020.
And Joe Biden would only get ~81% of the black turnout (Hillary had ~88% and lost)
IF all of this is true, then Trump could win both EC and PV
But, it's a lot of assumptions

 

Georgia
Much of the media, including Fox even, are relying on media polls to conclude Georgia will go Dem
But check out NBC's numbers which are fairly up to date -- Dems did have the VBM lead, but early in person voting is changing it. Early in person over the last 5 days is Rs+7
As stated in 2016, IMO, linear regression models based on party registration produce more accurate results



Here is the hardlink if that is too blurry Georgia election results 2020: Live results by county
Set the bottom chart to "party registration"

 

More Georgia
The way this state works demographically, Dems need a black turnout of 30%+
In order for Dems to sweep the entire state, black turnout would have to be ~35%
Right now, black turnout in Georgia is just slightly above 27%

There is a rumor there among Dems that Stacey Abrams thinks that if Biden wins now that she will lose in 2022. So she has not gone out of her way to help Joe in 2020

 

But I had to see her unpleasant face on a Youtube ad about 100 times trying to get money for Joe's campaign.

 

OK, that just what my hs friend now in the ATL told me

 

I've been following that link for over a week now. Just from the data today it looks like...

Biden looks solid in PA, NV
Looks promising in NC, IA, MN

Trump looks solid in TX, MI, GA, OH, WI

Toss up per data in FL

None of this takes into account game day action (voting day historic trends)

Also, it contradicts what polling experts are touting (WI , MI are leaning dem etc)

 

Florida
The Dem Vote By Mail lead began as Ds +632,615
Early In Person Voting now has Rs +439,750
632,615 - 439,750 = Ds +192,865
Biden needs a bigger margin than that going into election day

 

Disagree on Florida
I am concerned the outbreak in Wisc may hurt R turnout day of election voting. We will see
NV and AZ are going to be close, but Trump has a shot
I think he should spend his final days on Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania

 

Trump has 3 rallies on Friday in MN, WI, and MI and 3 rallies on Saturday in PA. He is in FL and NC today. Note he is not visiting TX-GA-OH-IA of late.

 

Arizona
The original Dem VBM lead has been cut in half over the last 3-4 days

 

I think Biden cut his ad buying in those states too
Conclusion?

 

Maybe Biden is counting on the Bloomberg multi million $ ad buy
And cheating
Harris is coming Fri

 

Is it possible it will be at 2016 levels by the end of early voting you think?