What is more likely? Texas A&M failing to meet high expectations over the next few years or Texas exceeding expectations over the next few years.
— Cole
Given the recent histories of the programs, I’m tempted to answer that it’s more likely both underwhelm. But since Cole only gave me two options, I feel like I must choose one — but I’m going to flip the question a bit.
It feels more likely that Texas A&M meets those expectations than Texas exceeds them. The way the Aggies recruited before this cycle combined with the No. 1 class in 2022 suggests that more top-five classes are on the way. That’s precisely the way Kirby Smart turned Georgia into the monster it is today. Despite Texas A&M’s history of not finding its way into the national title picture, building a roster this way gives a program a far better chance at breaking through than anything else. Georgia fell short a few times, but as long as the Bulldogs kept recruiting in a similar way, they were going to get over the hump eventually.
Texas A&M shares a division with Alabama, so it will be more difficult. But keep stacking talent the way the Aggies have, and anything is possible.
Texas is in a different place. The Longhorns just had zero players drafted, which will negatively affect recruiting no matter how organized the Longhorns’ NIL collectives are. There is no faster way to turn off elite recruits than show that you can’t develop players the NFL wants. The good news for Texas?
Bijan Robinson will ensure that drought doesn’t last long. But the Longhorns are behind the Aggies and several of their future SEC rivals on this front.
I’ve now reached the point with Texas where I must actually see the improvement on the field before I can believe that the Longhorns will exceed expectations. Steve Sarkisian’s team will get a great litmus test when Alabama comes to Austin in Week 2, but it’s tough to be optimistic when the Longhorns have only a handful of players who would start at Alabama. (Alabama transfers
Jahleel Billingsley and
Agiye Hall did see the field at Alabama, but they weren’t projected to be stars for the Crimson Tide this season.)
At this point, Texas needs to worry about being competitive in its remaining years in the Big 12. Texas A&M, meanwhile, should be disappointed if the Aggies aren’t in the national title conversation a few times in the next four or years.
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