2022 House and Senate election

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by mchammer, Dec 8, 2021.

  1. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Let me guess. Dems trying to blame high gas prices on Laxalt though Biden has shut down drilling. Can’t fix stupid. Laxalt might have reasonably concluded you are wasting money on these voters. Better they stay home.
     
  2. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    If I were the Nevada GOP, I'd do a major Latino outreach now and put this race away. They'll probably win anyway, but they can take it off the map if they play their cards right.
     
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  3. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

     
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  4. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

     
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  5. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    So the Georgia race just got tougher. Link. May the worse man lose.
     
  6. Garmel

    Garmel 5,000+ Posts

    Walker is a psycho.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  7. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Walker disputes it. No one (Walker, media) has credibility one way or other.
     
  8. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    You give the media too much credit.
     
  9. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Everybody in politics disputes everything. The woman supposedly has documented evidence though. Not good. Either way, it's a fustercluck that we definitely don't need. Our nominee shouldn't be a sawed-off Wilt Chamberlain.
     
  10. mb227

    mb227 de Plorable

    The evidence, such as it is, requires one to draw a series of lines and make inferences. The claims include a bill for services of approximately $500, a copy of a personal check for $700, and a 'get well card.' Having a check and a card does NOT make a showing that Walker knowingly funded an abortion. Hell, even a card does not necessarily mean he knew she had an abortion...she may well have said "I am having a medical procedure next week...wish me well" which, in turn, produced a card.

    The article makes it out that the overage was because she 'ballparked' the estimate, yet in the same article, the abortion was the week prior to the check. She KNEW the cost. It just doesn't add up.

    Oh, and about that card...the 'rest, relax, recover' language was the preprinted card...
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Walker's son just ripped the hell out of Herschel.
    It may be true but the timing is suspect.
    It will be hard to overcome this.Demx are pouring money in
    As Deez said may the worse man for policies lose
    But we know voters don't vote for who will vote to help our country
     
  12. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    It's definitely possible for it to be ********. If the Kavanaugh hearings tell us anything, it's that people will defame and blatantly lie for political gain and that the media will fully endorse the lie if it hurts Republicans. However, there's a reason why a story like this is far more likely to be believed by the public about Hershel Walker than it would be if brought against (for example) Mike Pence. Walker is a man-*****, and Pence isn't.
     
  13. Garmel

    Garmel 5,000+ Posts

    I knew he was psycho when he admitted to playing Russian roulette.
     
  14. mb227

    mb227 de Plorable

    Watched his interview with Kilmeade this AM...did not like the way he answered. Kilmeade asked if he knew who the woman was and Herschel was denying knowledge and also claimed he never signs cards like that.

    1) there is a check...he KNOWS who the woman is
    2) it would not surprise me to learn that he signed correspondence to family and friends with just the H and that there will be new samples that demonstrate that making the news.

    He would have been better served to admit to the check and claim he was helping an acquaintance who had reached out about needing money for something...and that, being a friend, he didn't ask what for.

    The card could easily have been explained away given the benign nature of the short personal sentiment in the card.
     
  15. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

  16. Garmel

    Garmel 5,000+ Posts

    I haven't seen any polls for the Arizona AG race. If the republican doesn't win that the investigation into election fraud is over.
     
  17. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    This poll likely means the race is tied. Now oil and gas prices are going up again.
     
  18. Murphy'sBoy

    Murphy'sBoy 1,000+ Posts

    Like I have said before, Trump is the anchor that will continually drag the GOP down. Senate would probably (easily) turn Red if not for the idiotic endorsements of Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker by Trump. Oz is moderately unqualified and Walker simply a knucklehead and a liar. When your own (pro-Desantis) son tells people you are a scumbag, that's not a recipe for winning.
     
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  19. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    @Mr. Deez Been waiting for this poll. Dem +3 in NH senate poll. Need another shift of 3 points in next 5 weeks. Still possible given that gas prices will be going up again.
     
  20. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

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  21. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Generally in agreement. However, I must admit that the opponents Oz and Walker had in the primary were not particularly inspiring. They were mediocre at best. Of course, in the current political environment, mediocre is probably good enough to pretty easily win those races in light of how weak the Democratic candidates are.
     
  22. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    According to Trafalgar, Dem is +2 for NY gov
     
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  23. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    That would be a huge upset because most polls say it's not eve close, but it shouldn't be a massive shock. New Jersey almost flipped last year with a poorly funded and not particularly well-known Republican opponent. (And of course, Trafalgar was one of the few pollsters who saw it coming.)
     
  24. Murphy'sBoy

    Murphy'sBoy 1,000+ Posts

    I grew up a republican in a republican household. I won't comment on the other GOP senatorial candidates because I believe them to have a basic level of competence.

    Trump backed Dr. Oz and Walker because they are famous and will do his bidding. Dr. Oz "crudite" is not gonna beat biker looking Fetterman. He is regarded as a Pennsylvania version of a carpetbagger. Herschel is just an idiot, he can't construct a simple sentence. In addition to his abortion issue, he has the "China taking our good air" comment and "if we evolved from the apes, why are there still apes? Think about it". Well, I have and this level of basic ignorance should disqualify anyone from being a senator.
     
  25. Murphy'sBoy

    Murphy'sBoy 1,000+ Posts

    And I forgot, Herschel also said he had a "special mist" that people could walk through to cure COVID. He's a special kind of stupid by anybody's measurement.
     
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  26. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I pretty much agree with this characterization of both. However, I think Oz has a decent chance at beating Fetterman. I'm not saying Oz would make a good senator. (Unlike Walker, he is smart enough, but he's a carpetbagging hack.) I doubt that he will. However, that race has tightened significantly, and momentum is on his side. Fetterman is clearly having physical trouble, and he's getting kicked around on the crime issue. It's a bit of a race to the bottom.
     
  27. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    I’ve compared Trafalgar against 538 poll averages. Trafalgar is consistently +4 GOP compared to 538. Apparently these pollsters never learn. Anyway keep this in mind in next 4 weeks. At the moment, GOP is tied or winning in PA, GA, AZ, NV assuming a +4 shift. Need help though for NH and WA.
     
  28. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Like RCP, 538 averages polls. I don't blame them for that. It's a big business, and I don't expect them to rely only on one pollster. And FWIW, though 538 does consider Trafalgar to be a partisan Republican polling firm (and they are), Silver gives them pretty high marks for accuracy. Most mainstream media outlets just ignore them, even though they're probably the only polling firm that knows what it's doing.
     
  29. Duck Dodgers

    Duck Dodgers 1,000+ Posts

    Rubbish. Trump gets the based fired up to vote, in a way that Mittens or McConnel or any of the morbid national Republicans don't, and in fact, make the base less likely to show up to vote, the more they see from the Washington Generals, who lose on purpose.

    Who would you have rather have seen in GA, and name them without having to look up who was running in that race?

    Oz I'm afraid will be another worthless Mittens clone if elected, but he's done a good job as a candidate, and has a good shot in this race. McCormick could have been typecast as an investment banker, so he would have had challenges too.

    Far too many doom and gloomers for races that haven't been decided yet. You often see this - the base will either turn out for, or less so, an establishment pick. But they won't trash them during the race, while GOP Inc. has no qualms about running down their party's candidate during the race.

    For what matters to GOP Inc, isn't policy, it's power. They would much rather a candidate not of their picking lose the election, and then be able to try next election to get their guy in. For what they care about is the power, money, and jobs available via their candidate being elected. The consulting jobs, the polling contracts, the ad buys, the government money going into the right pockets. That's what they care about, and having the Democrat win the election, and getting leftist policy in, just makes it easier for them next election for their guy to win.
     
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    Last edited: Oct 7, 2022
  30. Duck Dodgers

    Duck Dodgers 1,000+ Posts

    They "don't learn" as most polls are not real polls, it's push polling. "Don't even bother Republican voter to show up, the race is already over and your candidate is going to lose".

    It took me 3 minutes to look up how utterly worthless the often quoted UT Tyler / Texas Tribute poll was in 2020. Any poll that missed the winner, and was off by 7% and 15 percent in the general presidential / Democrat primary races has no value in any future election until they explain what they did wrong and why, and how it won't happen again.

    None of that happened, yet they're still trotted out to make it look like the Democrats have a chance in Texas. Which they don't.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2022

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