Believe it or not it opened at -13 and then went quickly to -10. Vegas doesn't know what to make of these two teams with such bad defenses. We might actually be able to run the ball on Baylor some and should be able to pass. TCU destroyed them in Waco last week and their no OU. They sacked Lawrence repeatedly. Hard to get a handle on this game. Being at Austin I would have favored us by a field goal. Ten seems too high, but Baylor really looked bad at home against a team not even 1/3 as good as OU. So I guess that is why the line is that high.
Vegas was clearly impressed by that 'intense' practice we had today that was only about a week or two late
Yes, don't tell that dude with the man crush and life size pic on Blake Gideon. He will bet the house on Baylor.
Wow that's like stealing money from the Bank omg put all your dinero on Baylor because they will beat us handily with no defense it's going to be a passing frenzy for florenece he might break all of RGIII records sat night
Baylor will score 40+ and I am not sure TX can score more than 28. TX will run the same slow developing running play with Bergeron into the line and get stopped for no gain and then run the wildcat twice and punt. Terrible. And if TX wins, so what you beat freakin Baylor. Since the 2010 season Mack is 7 - 12 in Big XII play, 7 and freaking 12. That is unacceptable on any level by any program with any pride, history or commitment to competitive football. Why is this conversation even happening? Mack has to be fired along with all the rest of the coaches.
Texas will cover the spread. I see them controlling the pace of the game with their trio of backs. Mack always has you guys ready to go after the OU game.
For those who've been betting a long time, and even those who have been around for Texas' several thrashings at the hands of OU...the week after is never anything remotely like the pathetic week before. Quite the opposite. I guarantee you this team circles the wagons and plays lights out after what they just went through. Texas got beaten like a rented mule because they walked into a buzzsaw with zero focus and determination...hugely underestimating a stronger, legitimate OU team. These same guys will be giving 100% effort and focus on their homefield this week hoping to restore any credibility they can. There are few stronger motivators in football for talented players than an "Us versus the world" mentality. And I assure you that's the mode this team is in after their own fanbase left them for dead and they are completely embarrassed (for good reason). Yeah it's a big line after what we just witnessed, but Baylor was not the team handing out the beating last week. They were busy being completely shredded on defense in their own right. And by a team with much less offensive punch than Texas. It's just not the same type of matchup in any fashion as what Texas sleep-walked into last week. There is no sunshine pumping here...just the world of gambling and post-Texas meltdowns in Dallas do not equate to a repeat performance like the thrashing received from OU. Texas should move the ball with balance all day long on this Baylor team. And with the complete turn-around in angry motivation over last week, we could see a cover very easily. Be careful with this line, all I'm saying. Once Texas starts tasting constant offensive success and scoring this week, they should respond in a dangerous aggressive manner throughout their team. Mack Brown's results at Texas after OU losses: 2000 14-63 L won and covered at Colorado 2001 03-14 L won and covered at Oklahoma St. 2002 24-35 L won and covered at Kansas St. 2003 13-65 L won and covered at Iowa St. 2004 00-12 L won, did not cover vs. Missouri 2007 21-28 L won and covered at Iowa St. 2010 20-28 L won and covered at Nebraska 2011 17-55 L lost and did not cover vs. Oklahoma St. (played hell of a game) By my count, Mack is 7-1 SU after losses to OU. He's 6-2 ATS after OU losses. Of the really big beatdowns (20+ points), won and covered 2 of 3 the next week. And the one he didn't cover, last year we played a far superior Oklahoma St. team extremely hard. The difference between fans and winning cappers is they realize the difference in opponents and situations can be enormous week to week. And they strongly take into account past success a coach has in certain situations when he is challenged in a similar way following an annual game. Handicappers who make decisions with any emotion or allegiance to any team when they are betting...won't be betting for long. Of final note...this Texas is team is much more talented than some of the past teams that won and covered the week following an OU shredding. Apparently, Mack sucks at getting his team ready for OU and is extremely effective at resurrecting them after a crushing defeat. Yes, that is very pertinent to analyzing this bet. Not saying bet Texas, merely saying don't be surprised to lose your wad when you emotionally bet the farm against them here in favor a highly flawed Baylor team limping onto the Horns turf.
Weren't we favored over WVU because we were at home and WVU has no defense? Weren't we suppose to run over WVU as well. It seems we got ran over at home by a back up RB. Baylor is going to pass all over us and I wouldn't put any thing past Briles and his offense. The teams in this conference have the blueprint to beat us. You just have to watch one quarter of any game this season. I mean I hope we win but I am tired of this team and the lack of effort they put on the field.
Didn't WVU score 70 on Baylor and only 48 on Texas. Baylor defense is worse than WVU and their offense isn't as good. WVU is better than TCU If Texas hasn't mailed in the season already there is no reason they can't win this game.
Was the same "season is over" talk after 63-14 in 2000. Same "we can't beat anyone now because we suck so bad" talk after 65-13 in 2003. And again and again, Mack almost always circles the wagons after OU. Horns won and covered next week after those crushing losses both times. If you think the beatdown last Saturday was distinctly any worse than those other two, you're wrong. OU completely exposed and dominated the Horns those years too. So bad it looked like the team was pitiful and didn't have the heart to win. Guess what, in a blowout you look completely worthless in all areas. Doesn't mean you are that awful and heartless in reality, just that day against that certain match-up. If we sucked so bad going into OU, how come so many expected us to be in a dogfight? Because Texas was a pretty good team leading up to it. They didn't all of the sudden just become doormats because one rivalry game blowout. Each and every week in betting is completely different with it's own unique circumstances. Bet with your emotion all you want, like I said don't be shocked when it's something like 51-38 in Texas' favor going into the 4th quarter. Texas has a huge advantage in which team has a better chance of stopping the other more, and also holding the ball more. Texas has played THREE top 10 offenses and still gives up 9 points and 100+ yards less than Baylor PER GAME. Bears are ranked 124th in defense (4th from last) in the entire nation. Texas may have defensive problems, but Baylor is almost void of a defense altogether.
Baylor offensive gameplan----- Run to the LEFT!!!!!!!, Pass to the LEFT!!! If Okafor and D line gets pressure, just lob a screen pass over them and get 15 to 20 yards before anyone steps up to touch (I mean tackle) them
You know Art Briles gets a chubby everytime he thinks about playing against our defense. He hates us almost as much as Stoops does. He will run the score up as much as he can.
Brad Austin lays it out pretty well. Mack Brown rallys after an OU beat-down and covers with regularity. I wouldn't count on Baylor being a lock.
Over the last dozen years or so, Texas gets into these streaks where betting against the Longhorns (team play, expectations, injuries, point in season, Longhorn premium points, etc.) has better odds than any casino game in Vegas. I would venture to say in the 65-70% success range based on my experience. That's pretty dang high. My take is that we entered one of these streak areas beginning with W. Va. for the foreseeable future with the exception of Kansas (I'll wait for the line). I've taken 30% of my last two week's winnings and put it on Baylor +11. If my Horns are gonna act this way, then they gotta pay me. The Link BTW, also took K-State +3 1/2
Cha-Ching! After last night's performance nothing's changed. Mack's spinning that this is the new Big 12 (shootouts, no defense) only helps. No such BS applies to K-State or OU. K-State's 25-year old men are gonna be hard to beat. Snyder may finally get over the hump this year. Salivating, waiting for lines tonight. Hope they stay skewed with respect to Texas and KSU. Also watching to see how much of a premium ND gets. Could be skewed to favor OU. I'd rather the Horns be in the hunt, but until that time, I'll get my kicks this way.
Lines are in: Texas -23 KSU -8 OU -10 The Link Initial inclinations are Texas to cover, you know, something like 54-27. KSU looks interesting, will wait to see if it drops at all (-6.5) and I'm in, maybe even (-7). OU looks dicey, will wait as well.
And so the streak ends. UT goes 2-6 ATS and KSU 6-1-1. I would rather not bet these games and be in the hunt for a NC, but this is the way I take the edge off of sitting through the defeats in what was supposed to be the launching year to a title ('13). KSU was an absolute gift this year, as the lines were consistently overwhelming in their favor. Invest, uhr, gamble on what you know. Wishing a differnet Horn team with the same fundamental problems would show up every week, was lunacy. In my best, drunken Tony Montana: "Everybody say Merry Christmas to the bad guy."
