So I have been thinking about the general consensus of the talking heads, which is that: 1) Obama barely ekes by on the popular vote or maybe ties 2) Obama wins on the electoral count 3) GOP holds the House 4) GOP picks up a few Senate seats. If this scenario unfolds, we basically have a president that ran a very negative campaign, which even his most ardent supporters agree has happened. He has lost most of his mandate from 2008. We still face all the very scary issues regarding the fiscal cliff, rogue nations, the economy, etc. I can only see a next four year period that resembles the second half of George W.'s presidency, i.e. total acrimony and trench warfare between the legislative bodies that totally neuters the Obama administration. On the plus side, a general mending of the economy could provide a salve to many citizens. On the con side, the fiscal situation, particularly the entitlement situation and Obamacare, could prove a systematic risk and the Obamacare albatross could just kill any sort of credibility the President has left. Am I being totally pessimistic in my view of the world?
I think the impact of the massive debt on our children and grandchildren has been under emphasized in this campaign, and even if it doesn't continue to grow at the +$ 1 trillion level per year, it will cripple our economy for years to come. Additionally, if Obama wins and is not tempered by a desire for re-election, there is no telling what he will propose or successfully enact in the next four years, even with an uncooperative Congress. His past executive decrees and selective directives to ignore laws is disturbing to say the least.
I had a dream, a dream about you, baby. It's gonna come true, baby. They think that we're through, but baby, You'll be swell! You'll be great! Gonna have the whole world on the plate! Starting here, starting now, honey, everything's coming up roses! Clear the decks! Clear the tracks! You've got nothing to do but relax. Blow a kiss. Take a bow. Honey, everything's coming up roses! Now's your inning. Stand the world on it's ear! Set it spinning! That'll be just the beginning! Curtain up! Light the lights! You got nothing to hit but the heights! You'll be swell. You'll be great. I can tell. Just you wait. That lucky star I talk about is due! Honey, everything's coming up roses for me and for you!
If Obama wins, the following things will happen: 1. The Bush tax cuts on the top bracket are gone, at least to a point. We may not go back to the 39.6 percent rate, but the rate will go up. The GOP won't be able to make that issue its make or beak point. You will see some bloodbaths in the 2014 primary elections, but a deal will have to be reached. The can can't get kicked down the road anymore, and if a tax increase is a prerequisite to Obama coming to the table, it's going to happen, especially if Democrats hold the Senate. 2. We'll put a band-aid on entitlements but not really fix them. You might see some sort of means testing and/or a removal of the income cap on FICA (coupled perhaps with a cut in the rate) but no fundamental reforms. 3. Obamacare will be permanently implemented. No brainer for the short term, but long term, we're going to have a single-payer healthcare system. Furthermore, both parties will go along - not because a single payer system is good, but because the post-Obamacare system will be so bad and so expensive that a single payer system will start to look good. Basically, the public will surrender to it, which was the real goal of Obamacare anyway. 4. What happens to the Supreme Court will depend on which justices retire/die. If Ginsburg and/or Breyer leave, it'll be a wash with perhaps a very slight movement Left because Obama will not appoint someone that moderate. If Scalia and/or Kennedy leave, we'll see a new Warren Court. Obviously gay marriage will be the law of the land (will probably happen anyway). No abortion restrictions will be upheld. Law enforcement will be reined in (which I'd consider a good thing). The cases that limited the commerce clause during the '90s as well as Roberts' opinion on the issue in the Obamacare ruling will be overturned or more likely just narrowed into irrelevance. School vouchers (where they've been enacted) will be struck down. Voter ID laws and all laws that could arguably suppress voting (except of course military voting) will be struck down. 5. Iran will join the nuclear weapons club. They'll have no reason not to. We'll posture and bluff like Clinton did with North Korea. However, when the balls hit the wall, we're not going to go to war to stop them, and Iran knows it. 6. Some semi-good will come out of it. I think we'll see improvements to the national infrastructure (roads, bridges, and perhaps rail), which the corporate welfare class of the GOP will rip publicly but support behind closed doors - though on terrible terms for taxpayers. 7. We'll see a lax or deceptively difficult but easy to cheat path to citizenship or permanent residency for illegal immigrants. Some GOP members will crow about, but they fold like a cheap lawn chair because their donors want it. 8. We'll see an expansion of the student loan program but loopholes to get out of paying them back. In other words, we'll make the tuition problem worse.
