UT's checkmate move over aTm

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by Universal, Jan 8, 2013.

  1. Universal

    Universal 25+ Posts

    I'm not a lawyer...there are a number of theories about the GOR ranging from it is ironclad to it isn't a problem. I can't comment on it with any certainty. However, the GOR becomes less of an issue as each year ticks away. Realignment is a long-term process...the Big 10 and SEC will determine how fast things happen, and money drives the process. We are stuck in the status quo for now, but the fans have a voice and should not let up on what we want.

    I sense there is a lot of disagreement over what we should do (expand Big 12, join Pac 12, join Big10, join SEC, go independent), and we will have to decide eventually because the status quo will not last financially...we will get passed up in revenue and that will get the AD and Board of Regents' attention. The purpose of my post was to get people to realize joining the SEC is a great option that we should consider amongst our other options, especially since it hurts aTm in the process.
     
  2. FloridaRaider5

    FloridaRaider5 25+ Posts


     
  3. HMFIC

    HMFIC 100+ Posts

    Worst case scenario for you guys is the following.

    - Deloss holds on and remains in the current role. Any move would involve some sort of surrender on the LHN(PAC/SEC/B1G), something I dont see him as willing to do. The LHN was his baby I don't see him as willingly cut it's throat or adapt it some sort of other regional network.

    - OU frustrated by the contracts coming in from SEC/B1G and see's itself in a dying conference decides to take matters into thier own hands and jumps to SEC.

    - Texas at that point takes some combination of Tech/OSU/KU/KSU/BU(Assuming Tech/OSU/KSU...KU is picked up by B1G) to the Pac 12.
     
  4. Universal

    Universal 25+ Posts

    The AAS article and the reaction nationwide to it should be the final straw to push Dodds out. As a UT alum, I am embarrassed by what Dodds said...he does not represent me or my values. His Joneses comments and pot shots at Missouri are stupid things to say...they just make UT look like arrogant pricks.

    The question is what will the new AD do when Dodds is finally "retired" by the BOR (how he hasn't already been retired after the AAS article is beyond me). The Big 12 can't expand because no team worth it wants to join. We can't go to the Pac because the LHN is ESPN and the Pac is Fox. The only solution, which happens to be the best solution for UT overall, is to join with OU and ESPN in pitching to join the SEC.

    The Big 12 won't exist without UT and OU, so the GOR is moot. Even if the GOR is an issue, chances are this won't happen until the Big 10 gobbles up the ACC, which could be years from now when the GOR money has dwindled to a manageable amount. ESPN could send the Big 12 money and the LHN money to the SEC, and the per school payouts would be gigantic...enough to get Slive to seriously consider the pitch, especially since ESPN is paying the SEC so much money already. Here’s the math:

    Current situation (rounded numbers):

    UT: 1st/2nd tier of $20MM plus LHN of $11MM (remember, IMG gets $5MM) = $31MM
    SEC schools (w/new contracts): 1st/2nd tier of $21MM plus $10MM for SEC Network = $31MM

    Situation with UT/OU in SEC with LHN and Big 12 money diverted to SEC:
    UT/OU and all SEC teams: 1st/2nd tier of $30MM plus $25MM for SEC/LHN = $55MM

    As you can see, the uplift for adding UT/OU and diverting LHN/Big12 money to the SEC is huge…it is why Slive and the SEC would have to consider it…they have a fiduciary duty to do so. This is what UT should do…it solves every problem we have: (1) bad conference, (2) poor fan experience, (3) long-term tv money issue in poor conference, (4) fixing the LHN white elephant, and last but not least, (5) eliminating the aTm SEC advantage.

    Does anybody know any ESPN executives to show this to?
     
  5. jmtamu

    jmtamu 250+ Posts

    It's hilarious to read this board and see the most of your now realize that there is an "SEC Advantage".

    Who knows what will happen in the future, but I really think Texas and OU is at best a secondary priority for the SEC. Getting into North Carolina and Virginia is a much bigger priority.

    Face it, whether it is all Deloss or not, Texas is perceived to be control freaks and not known to play nice with others. The SEC is big on unity and Texas hasn't brought that in a long time. There will not be many schools in the SEC that would be excited to extend Texas an invite.
     
  6. l00p

    l00p 10,000+ Posts

    Hi, welcome to a Longhorn board yee who wish you were a Horn and root for a team not third in cheating all time.
     
  7. jmtamu

    jmtamu 250+ Posts

    I've been on this board since 2002. I do not wish I was a Horn. I actually am only registered because 3:16 used to be the best message board in the history of the intranet.

    It's sad that the owners of this board have let the traffic on here come to a screeching halt. [​IMG]
     
  8. Mr. Fiesta

    Mr. Fiesta 1,000+ Posts

    Yet you keep coming back... [​IMG]
     
  9. aggressor

    aggressor 100+ Posts

    You can talk until you are blue in the face about Texas in the SEC but it just isn't ever happening. The SEC just doesn't need Texas and Texas brings less value to the SEC than it would any other conference because the SEC already has A&M and the ability to get the SEC Network picked up by every major carrier in Texas at a premium. Texas absolutely has value but just not enough to the SEC to take on all the negatives. You also have 3 schools in the SEC that left conferences in part because of Texas. There are just too many monster barriers in place. The SEC will already be paying out $50-75 million per school within 5 years, maybe more. They are the biggest brand in college football and getting stronger every year.

    Texas also will have a very hard time going to the SEC, as will OU. Texas has 3 other Texas schools that depend on it and it will be a very hard sell to leave because it will put all of those schools in limbo as the Big 12 will dissolve. Baylor is literally mortgaging their future in building their new toilet bowl stadium and it depends on that Big 12 money. Tech has gotten support in the Leg in their mission to become a Tier 1 school and though it is a long road in front of them getting left for roadkill by Texas would be a huge blow. TCU has the least power of the 3 but they still have some influence. How is Texas going to make all of those schools enemies for life politically? I have said it before and I will say it again, the biggest mistake Texas made was saying it didn't matter if A&M left because as long as they were there the Big 12 would exist. That sword cuts both ways and if there was a "checkmate" move that was it. Texas can do what they want with the Big 12 and run it like a fiefdom but leaving is another story entirely. Ironically the only way Texas could pull it off is to get support from A&M, you need our political power for cover. That was the move that painted Texas in a corner while giving A&M complete freedom.

    Stay pat, expand the Big 12, or go to the Pac 12 along with at least Tech. Those are the only realistic options.
     
  10. Horn2Run

    Horn2Run 1,000+ Posts


     
  11. RDV-1992

    RDV-1992 25+ Posts

    I think that the future of the Big 12 (ie, if it expands in the near term) will be determined by the ACC v University of Maryland lawsuit. Those terms will dictate if other teams will be willing to leave the ACC. If they are favorable, I believe that the Big 10 will snatch up as many of ACC plums as possible. The domino effect will then have a couple of the remaining schools join the SEC. Then the Big 12 will have their turn at the table. Leftovers like Wake Forest and (maybe) Duke whose value is primarily in basketball will be left as football independents.

    Of course, if the settlement terms aren't favorable, then the ACC is saved and the Big 12 is still landlocked.
     
  12. Mr. Fiesta

    Mr. Fiesta 1,000+ Posts

    It always funny when aggy gets on here telling us why Texas can't do this and why Texas won't do that. They've been in the $EC 1 year (running to get away from Texas) and they think they run the league.
     
  13. l00p

    l00p 10,000+ Posts

    Well, nothing really changed for them. They are still close to the middle of the pack and once the newness wears off they will be smack dab back to average. Ags are just that, average. Well, except when it comes to cheating and then they are near the head of the class(less).
     
  14. Mr. Fiesta

    Mr. Fiesta 1,000+ Posts

    Yeah, I know. It's just that they're so...aggy (no offense to Prop Joe). I don't know if I should laugh or vomit a lot of times. Maybe both...... [​IMG]
     
  15. FireRC

    FireRC 500+ Posts


     
  16. l00p

    l00p 10,000+ Posts

    When dealing with simples I have to repeat to hammer it home. I am the third billy goat gruff to trolls. Facts.
     
  17. agssuk

    agssuk 1,000+ Posts

    I wish that UT, Tech, OU, and OSU would go to the PAC whatever and be done with it. If the league breaks up, then there is no TV money, therefore no GOR money. But thats just me. [​IMG]
     
  18. Zona Horn

    Zona Horn 500+ Posts

    Texas has had many chances to join the SEC. It has always refused. Why? The reasons are myriad, but they include the following:

    1. Culture: The SEC football culture is corrupt. Recruiting is dirty, they accept illiterate players and keep them elegible through joke classes and academic fraud (see Tennessee scandal), and they don't even have a lot of the sports that UT thrives in (you will never see an SEC school win the Sears Cup, for example). All they care about is football -- everything else (academics, other sports, NCAA rules, integrity, etc) is an afterthought.

    2. Academics and Prestige: if UT is going to move, it is going to be to a conference that values and promotes the academic mission of the school. In short, the Pac 12 or Big 10. Both of those conferences have the vast majority of their schools in the AAU, they both average $100+ million per year in research dollars, and the Pac 12 has even 4 schools in the Top 25 in USNWR (Stanford, Cal, Ucla and USC). The SEC has only a few AAU members (2 of which just joined), average about $13 million per year in research grants, and have 0 Top 25 schools. The Big 12 is not much better on those fronts (especially after aTm left), but the SEC would be a step down. Texas is currently ranked 47th in the country. If it joins the Big 10 or Pac 12 it will likely be in the Top 30 in a decade. If it joins the SEC, it will head the other direction.

    3. Size: the SEC is getting too big. With their scheduling format --- 8 conference games and 1 designated "rival" from the other division -- they only play the 6 other cross-division schools once every 6 years. That means aTm will almost never play Florida, Georgia, etc, and has to play Mizou every year (whoopee). If Texas joins that, it just makes the situation worse. Ultimately you would have to go to a pod system of some sort, which means we likely get stuck with Arkansas, aTm and Missou (LSU would not want to be in the same pod with us and aTm), and would not play the Bamas, Georgias and Floridas very often.

    Bottom line: Texas has had many chances to join the SEC. It never has. Dodds has screwed us over and we are now stuck in a crappy confernce, to be sure. But the SEC would still be worse than where we are now.

    Obviously the scandals of the last few months make it difficult to preach about class and integrity, but those attributes are highly valued at UT and have been a big part of how the school and it's alumni see themselves (and the issues of recent months will pass). UT would in a sense be abandoning that if it willingly jumped into the mud-pit of the SEC. (The only school that would be called "classy" in the SEC is Vandy, and they really don't even try to compete in football).

    It just isn't going to happen. Moreover, the "power" schools in the SEC don't want any more competition. They may add some markets, but they are not looking to add competition for titles.

    They expected aTm to suck, and were shocked to find that a middle-tier Big 12 school could bring in a pass-happy spread offense, ram their "smash-mouth" 1960's era schemes down their throat, and run circles around them. It embarrassed them, and nearly cost Bama a shot at the MNC. They won't allow Texas to make the situation worse. So if they add two more, it is not going to be Top 10 historical programs. It is going to be middle-brow schools like Missou that add eyeballs but not title runs.
     
  19. aggressor

    aggressor 100+ Posts


     
  20. Zona Horn

    Zona Horn 500+ Posts

    Aggressor,
     
  21. Trusted Insider

    Trusted Insider 1,000+ Posts

    Horn: We really aren't interested.
    Ag: Yes you are.
    Horn: No really, we aren't.
    Ag: Yes. You are.
    Horn: We aren't
    Ag: You are. You have to be. If you aren't then why am I here?
    Horn: No.
    Ag: We don't want you anyway and you'd never be invited.
    Horn: Thank you.
    Ag: Huh?
    Horn: Still here??
     
  22. Mr. Fiesta

    Mr. Fiesta 1,000+ Posts

    I'm not sure why anyone answers aggy....[​IMG]
     
  23. aggressor

    aggressor 100+ Posts

    Well, first off you were talking about sports that Texas cares about. Texas doesn't have a wrestling or water polo team so I don't know what that has to do with anything, the only sport Texas has that the SEC doesn't is Rowing but I'm guessing that doesn't move the meter a great deal.

    I "cherry picked" sports that Texas has traditionally focused on. The AD's in the SEC are broad reaching and successful and are the best funded in the country. They are spending the money on a lot more than football and the results are there. Some of the facilities for the minor sports in the SEC are mind boggling. Stanford has now and may always own the Sears Cup because they participate in so many minor sports that Texas doesn't participate in but they are one school. You also seem to want to act as though A&M doesn't count but we are an SEC school and we have been a Top 10 Sears Cup school for the last several years. The SEC does have some really minor sports as well they dominate including Gymnastics and Equestrian. Still, to be realistic football is worth about 4X the success in other sports because that is where all the money is. 9 of the Top 20 AD's revenue wise are in the SEC and that doesn't count A&M which technically fell out last year because of the held back revenue from the SEC move. That is only going to get more dramatic in coming years.

    Your research numbers are also faulty. A&M actually has a larger research spend than Texas now by a good margin, it does have an on campus Med Facility now, and just won the largest federal project in Texas since NASA. I'm not a huge Perry fan or of the Enterprise Fund but he has a lot to do with the vaccine project win: Chronicle Article

    I don't know where you are getting your numbers about $13 million but I believe this is the most commonly used source: Link

    According to that Texas for 2010 had $493 million in research spending which compares to some SEC schools:

    Florida-$584 million
    Texas A&M-$582 million
    Vandy$422 million
    Georgia-$350 million
    Kentucky-$336 million
    Missouri-$244 million
    Tennessee-$242 million
    LSU-$272 million
    Miss State $210 million
    South Carolina-$172 million
    Auburn $146 million
    Alabama's UAB campus just a few miles from Tuscaloosa also has over $400 million in spend.
    Arkansas and Ole Miss don't have significant research spends though.

    The Pac 12 and Big 1G definitely have better numbers but those are still far superior to the Big 12. As for US News:

    SEC -- Average of 98.7

    17. Vandy (AAU)
    54. Florida (AAU)
    63. Georgia
    65. Texas A&M (AAU)
    77. Alabama
    89. Auburn
    97. Missouri (AAU)
    101. Tennessee
    115. South Carolina
    125. Kentucky
    134. LSU
    134. Arkansas
    151. Ole Miss
    160. Mississippi State

    Big 12 -- average 113.1

    46. Texas (AAU)
    77. Baylor
    92. TCU
    101. Iowa State (AAU)
    104. Oklahoma
    106. Kansas (AAU)
    139. Kansas State
    139. Oklahoma State
    165. Texas Tech
    165. West Virginia

    The Pac is better because of the top end schools but it has a heavy bottom as well, if Texas went with OU, Tech, and OSU it would also really hurt.

    FWIW, I couldn't care less if Texas goes to the Pac 12 or Big 1G if they so desired but both have some negative consequences, especially distance wise. I don't know how Texas pulls off going to the Big 1G, I'd actually say it is more likely A&M went to the Big 1G before Texas but neither is happening so the point is moot. If the SEC expands it is going East, the prize that Slive has always wanted is UNC as does the Big 1G. The academics at UNC prefer the Big 1G but the alumni, fans, and possibly most importantly Roy Williams want the SEC which may be amenable to taking Duke with them which the Big 1G does not wish to do.
     
  24. aggressor

    aggressor 100+ Posts

    It was not an Aggie that started this thread.
     
  25. Trusted Insider

    Trusted Insider 1,000+ Posts

    Congratulations?
     

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