General Presidential Campaign: Trump vs Hillary

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by mchammer, Jun 20, 2016.

  1. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    Wiener clearly only cares about his....
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. Horns11

    Horns11 10,000+ Posts

    Not sure which post you're referring to (probably the December one where I said A&M was in better shape than we were... because they were in December). But HS kids changing minds or picking a college late in the game isn't quite the same as polling data, right? I think you're overestimating the amount of silent support Trump is getting.

    The trend line for Dornsife isn't the problem, it was the type of respondents who started the poll to begin with. The oft-mentioned Nate Silver even confirmed in the same article that mchammer keeps talking about:
    Ding ding ding, we have a winner. Trump's numbers in the first LA Times polls that came out were way off the "baseline" of every other poll in early 2016. The bottom line is that there are more Trump supporters who keep clicking the same "Trump, 100 percent confident" buttons every day on their accounts. The trends are also weighted poorly, as I showed earlier in the thread. Trump's post-convention bump knocked Hillary's out of the water, which doesn't gel with any other data from any other major polling organization. It's not because everything else is liberal-biased... it's because Dornsife's methodology started with a group of voters that doesn't represent the same group as everything else.

    Where? In the article I mentioned, he showed that a local poll for Senate in Iowa turned out to be right, even though it was way off the mainstream ones. It was the only one he gave evidence of. Do you have a U.S. Presidential election poll that even came close? Dewey v. Truman maybe?

    So there's confirmation bias in every poll except the trend in the LA Times one? If anything, it was Obama's support that was understated in 2008 and 2012, as even his own internal polling had him with fewer popular and electoral votes going into November. That's going to trend towards the blue again in the swing states. So when polling data says Clinton +1 on election night, she's going to end up with the +1 instead of the +3 like Obama got in similar states. The silent support that you speak of is not going to swing that way.
     
  3. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    mchammer- I'm trying to understand why you think that if Trump is within -3 of Clinton, he'll win. Do you think there is a hidden white nationalism that poll respondents are scared to expose? Yet you also claim a bias in all non-LA Times polls. Help me understand, again.
     
  4. Crockett

    Crockett 5,000+ Posts

    I think Weiner should change his name to something more appropriate. How about Anthony ********?
     
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  5. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    Weiner should just own it at this point. Follow John Wayne Bobbit's lead and do a novelty porn under the name Tony Schlong. :smile1:
     
  6. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

  7. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Two reasons:
    1. In the traditional polls, if you didn't vote in last election, you are not counted. Good number of Trump supporters who hasn't voted recently are not being counted.
    2. Survey polls show much higher support for Trump. Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll now show it is tied. So, not just an LA Times issue. Why the difference? Life long Dems who plan to vote for Trump tells a pollster a lie, but votes honestly in a survey. Note this is a double whammy. Only takes 1% to make a 2% difference in polling.

    Both issues (turnout and lying) probably add up to 3-4%.
     
  8. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    I think Carlos Danger is good enough of a nickname.
     
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  9. Statalyzer

    Statalyzer 10,000+ Posts

    Ron Mexico?
     
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  10. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Trump should make hay of Obama handing over US control of the internet to the UN. The UN? That should go well
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/an-internet-giveaway-to-the-u-n-1472421165

    He is giving US citizens quite a few other going away presents -- tons pardons already (more to come), dumping the worst of the remaining Gitmo killers on the street (that should go well II), allowing his healthcare "exchanges" to go belly-up, letting Louisiana drown ...

    What other tricks does he have in his golf bag?
     
  11. Clean

    Clean 5,000+ Posts

    Hidden Jihadi is right. Why isn't Trump making more or her possible ties to terrorism? She is the closest person to Hillary and fair game, especially given Hill's inability to keep anything secret. Hell, Huma even wrote in one of the revealed emails that she had classified documents in her car.

    Look at the noise the Dems have made about the Trump's ties to the alt right and Breitbart.

    http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/263183/huma-abedin-daughter-jihad-matthew-vadum
     
  12. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

  13. Clean

    Clean 5,000+ Posts

    You mean if it looks like Trump will actually win?
     
  14. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    There's a campaign started by a Mexican actress to stop Trump at the border. :)

    I'd love to be a fly on the wall in this meeting. Trump's stated that Mexico is sending their criminals to the US and that he'll force them to pay billions for a wall that really is not in their best interest. Pena Nieto has likened Trump to Hitler and Mussolini referencing the demagogue tactics Trump has employed. With that background, where does the conversation start?
     
  15. Htown77

    Htown77 5,000+ Posts

    "Have you ever stayed at one of my hotels? I have the best hotels and the presidential suites are huuuge."
     
    • Like Like x 4
  16. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    For the Trump doubters regarding his chances:



    Basically, once it gets within 3 pts, it becomes almost a toss-up. Yes, Clinton would still be favored, but there would be no safety margin to account for errors in turnout assumptions, etc. My perfect scenario is Clinton +2 cause that would mean less Clinton voters who erroneously think the election is safe.
     
  17. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    That went much better than I expected. Much better. This will create a big change in the poll numbers provided he does as well tonight.

    Interested to see what the haters thought post news conference?
     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Trump haters were hoping/predicting a disaster. Now, they are shitting in their pants.
     
  19. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    I was so totally against Trump getting the nomination. But damn he did not embarrass himself today. I also noticed Nieto said NAFTA could be changed.
    Trump or his campaign has good instinct. First going to LA with a truckload of supplies . And now being the first to accept Nieto's invitation.
    Clinton looks like the fool she is by calling Trump's meeting with Nieto nothing but a photo op.
    So Trump gets good press today and Hillary gets trampled by the NYT just
    as we learn she was STILL send8ng classifies info on her basement server after she left State. Who is left to defend her.Cher and Barbra?
     
    • Like Like x 1
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2016
  20. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts


    I believe that she was also a troofer, thought the US bombed itself on 9-11.
     
  21. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  22. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts


    A fly on the what?
     
    • Like Like x 1
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2016
  23. Statalyzer

    Statalyzer 10,000+ Posts

    It speaks volumes about Trump that "he did not embarrass himself today" is a noteworthy and significant observation.
     
    • Like Like x 3
  24. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    I think that the closer it gets, the greater the chance she will panic and go off the rails at some point in the debates.

    I remember during Ford v. Carter, Ford went off the rails with a dumb remark during their debates about Eastern Europeans living under the Soviet boot. The entire country went, "Wait, ..... what did he say?" at the same moment. It hurt him, and tended to confirm the stereotype perpetrated by comedians that he was just a dumb ex-jock (turns out he was actually a fairly bright guy). I cant say this alone was what made the difference, but it definitely did not help his chances.
     
  25. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Stat
    Indeed it does. And it says even more when the other Potus candidate gets through a day without another lie being given exposed. Or it might if it happened.
     
  26. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Obviously, marital infidelity is always wrong, and I sure as hell wouldn't do it. However, I do understand why some are tempted by it and why some give into the temptation. However, I don't understand why someone would even be tempted to "go Carlos Danger." I really don't see what he's getting out of it.
     
  27. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Clinton +2 in Fox poll
     
  28. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    This one is the DCNF suit.

    I speculated above in the context of the JW suit what State might do in this type of instance. I think they will give serious consideration to simply absorbing any civil contempt penalty. It's not their money, so they dont really care (no actual skin in the game). And it's not like they are a neutral party in the election.

    It is a somewhat unusual remedy but it has happened before. Judges usually have a sense when there is intentional delay, they get it, many or most were trail lawyers at some point. And it looks like this one is getting tired of the snow job.

     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2016
  29. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    Pena Nieto is disputing Trump's assertion that who was paying for the wall was not discussed. He apparently tweeted out that he opened the discussion by saying "Mexico is not paying for a wall" before they moved onto other topics.
     
  30. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Hillary looks more like a Bond villain with each passing day.


    [​IMG]
     

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