I agree. If Trump had a ground game here, he could take Virginia easily. He'd take it easily because the fundamentals of apathetic democratic voters (Virginia democrats aren't blue kool aid liberals)*, and because the rural conservative voters have had enough of their representation eaten away by johnny come lately carpetbagging liberals in the NoVa suburbs that have no idea what to do at a crab picking - they actually see a chance to turn the state back red.
But Trump doesn't have a real ground game here...yet. I emphasize yet. It's really tightened up in Virginia and the GOP is throwing a lot more resources in the Commonwealth. Even if they froze any resources in Virginia, given the trends and Trump's surging momentum I still think it would be a toss up. With Kaine on the ballot, she should be up by 15% in Virginia - she's not. If he could win Virginia...holy crap.
I think a "ground game" is more important to marginally appealing candidates (e.g. Clinton) versus disruptive/transformative candidates like Trump. Brexit is a good example. Military voters in an election like this do not need to be told by a pimply faced college freshman young republican or democrat to vote or register. A Marine Texan that's made up her mind about who she'll vote for knows how to make her vote count.
*Non-transplant Virginia democrats as opposed to transplanted NoVa government/political professionals
Last edited: Sep 26, 2016