Under. Not enough separation between the top teams, at least not that I can see at the present time. Now, just to be clear, the 3 you're referring to does not include OU 2015, right? We're talking 2016 and beyond?
Yall severely underestimate the Big 12 and overestimate the Pac12/ACC. The right coach could have Texas contending again in 3-4 years. Bob Stoops can easily produce more 11-1 seasons like last year. Gary Patterson will probably have at least one contender team in 8 years. People live in the present and think now is how things always will be. The SEC and Big Ten will be down again one day, and the other power conferences will be up. USC sucks today but could be great tomorrow. A scandal could get Jimbo fired tomorrow and FSU could become bad. Anyway Stoops and Patterson probably account for at least 3 playoff teams. Whether we get more is up to Texas and maybe WVU or Okie State. I dont see any from Tech, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor (beyond an outside shot this year). I mean, if you asked someone 10 years ago about Baylor, they would say they would expect Baylor to make 0 bowls. No one would have predicted Briles showing up and winning a Big 12 title. No one would have predicted Mack getting fired 10 years ago either. Also, nearly 10 years ago, Kansas beat Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Things change. If the Big 12 is down now, it will probably be up tomorrow.
Over. There is still a desire for equal representation among the Power 5 conferences. Assuming the B1G and SEC have nearly a guaranteed seat. I think the Big 12 gets 1 of those remaining 2 seats at least 50% of the time, deserved or not.