Bias of favorability polls exposed

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Brad Austin, Jan 18, 2017.

  1. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    Well what do you know, Trump dismissing the latest favorability polls as biased garbage has merit.

    According to Gallup the U.S. political party breakdown as of Jan 4-8, 2017 is 28% Reps, 25% Dems, 44% Inds.

    In order to get an accurate poll sample of the most recent affiliation numbers, one would need to poll Reps (+3) over Dems.

    At least keep it somewhere near (+1) for Dems to reflect the three Gallup breakdowns post election.

    There were 18 Gallup breakdowns in 2016-17. Only 5 showed Dems above (+3) with the highest at (+6).

    So what % breakdown did the biased MSM sample?

    ABC: 23% Reps, 31% Dems, 37% Inds, 9% No answer (+8 for Dems)
    CNN: 24% Reps, 32% Dems, 44% Inds (+8 for Dems)

    Dems never owned more than (+6) in the last 18 breakdowns. The average since 2015 seems to be around (+3). Post election samplings were (+1) and the latest was (-3).

    Who knows what the real favorability numbers should be, but if sampled fairly it'd be closer to even.

    But the sizable favorable/unfavorable gaps reported by the MSM (-14 , -11) are clearly biased garbage. Once again, they sacrifice credibility to spew more propaganda.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2017
  2. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    It is very obvious. The pollsters (with an exception or two) have lost credibility since they seem to be hitched to the liberal MSM. Only a fool would believe otherwise.
     
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  3. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    Fox News just joined the poll bias party with their latest poll.

    Of 1,006 people sampled, 7% more Dems than Reps.

    Gallup never reported that big of a Dem advantage in all 18 polls of 2016-17.

    The latest was +3 Reps, the average post election was +1 Dems, and the average since 2015 was roughly +3 Dems.

    Once again, the MSM just swayed the results anywhere from 4-10% against Trump.
     
  4. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    Isn't this essentially describing a margin of error? Of course, the difference in Trump's approval ratings at this point compared to the past 4 POTUS (Reps and Dems) is 20-40% depending on the POTUS and Poll. So, quibbling over a margin of error is missing the point, isn't it?
     
  5. I35

    I35 5,000+ Posts

    The margin of error is only set right if they don't skew the questions or who they ask. In other words CNN shouldn't have asked 8% more Dems than Rep in a red state like Arizona a few weeks out from the election. You ask me to do a poll and I promise you I can get the results you want. I will never trust any polls again. They sold their soul to the devil to try to get their candidate elected by throwing integrity and trustworthiness out the window. Never again.
     
  6. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    I can't argue without facts. In terms of registration the Republicans held a 4.3% advantage over the Dem in Arizona for 2017. I don't know what CNN poll you are referring to but would offer that any single poll is flawed but the aggregate gives a clearer picture. With that said, I'm not sure how any poll could predict Comey's letter 11 days before the election. Clearly Trump supporters may have been less willing to openly admit they supported a misogynist like mchammer correctly stated throughout the election.
     
  7. BrntOrngStmpeDe

    BrntOrngStmpeDe 1,000+ Posts

    I have believed for a while that this same technique was used to get the gay marriage issue over the hump. I believe selective polling of agreeable groups is how a country went from substantially supporting one man/one woman to a supposed swell of support for gay marriage in 15 years. Hell, one of the most liberal states we have passed prop 8 in 1996, yet we were told that in a mere 20 years the issue had gone from passing in the most liberal state to be a loser in virtually every state. horse-pucky!!

    I don't like the shorthand of calling of this "fake news" but it certainly is exaggerated and biased.
     
  8. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    Idk, I think a lot of people just decided over that time that gay marriage may go against their morals and beliefs, but it's not something that will harm their lives directly, so they gave up on their opposition.
     
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