La Pen Live

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Musburger1, Apr 19, 2017.

  1. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts



    I don't understand a word, but the crowd is really into it.
     
  2. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    The crowd is into it for the same reason crowds enjoyed Trump speeches. She speaks and appeals to the voters whom the political elites esteem the least. I'm not a big fan, but I understand it. It'sy unlikely to put her into office (even with Putin's money), but she has forced other candidates to shift at least somewhat in her direction on immigration.

    And of course, she was introduced by her smokin' hot niece.
     
  3. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  4. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  5. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    The problem for Le Pen is that she won't draw much support from the vanquished candidates. Fillon has endorsed Macron. I'm sure some of his people will back Le Pen, but most will not. Melanchon isn't endorsing anybody, and frankly, if she's going to draw much support from either, she'll probably take some of Melanchon's. He's closer to her than either of the others. That's not going to be enough to close the 28 - 32 point lead that Macron has, especially since the runoff is only 2 weeks away.

    Could things change with a major terrorist attack? Perhaps, but it would take something big - the shooting of the police officers isn't even close to enough. Something like the 2015 Paris attack would be closer, but to really change the dynamics, it would take a dramatic 9/11-scale attack with lots of fatalities and destruction of major landmarks - something big enough to make people stop caring about her crackpot economic policies. If the Eiffel Tower or the Palace of Versailles got destroyed and took a couple thousand people with them, then Le Pen would have a good chance.
     
  6. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    Definitely sounds like a longshot. Does Macron winning mean acceptance of terrorism and the murdering of innocents in France?
     
  7. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    The markets have already called a Macron victory with US futures up 1 1/2 % since Friday's close.

    The next focus will be the US budget. The Democrats will insist no money be included for wall construction. Not that that monetary amount is a big deal in the scheme of things, but it is political dynamite. We'll see where this goes later on in the week.
     
  8. iatrogenic

    iatrogenic 2,500+ Posts

    If I recall, a President was just elected on the basis of building a wall. I think the dynamite exploded last November.
     
  9. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Unfortunately, yes. I think he's better than Le Pen on economics, but he's a politically correct globalist with plenty of white guilt. So he's pro-EU, pro-open borders, pro-Muslim, etc.
     
  10. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    I read an article this weekend that attempted paint Macron as a pro-business reformist. As a government minister he attempted some radical changes that were seen as anti-labor that ultimately forced him out of the role.

    Regardless, if Macron can help stymie the ultra-nationalists that's a good thing from where I sit.
     
  11. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

  12. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    On economics, he would have been my second choice (after Fillon, who was considered a Thatcherite). The more I read about him, the more I prefer him to Le Pen on those types of issues. There's very little in her economic agenda that I'd consider "conservative" in the American sense. She's often labeled as "far right," but that means something very different in Europe, especially on economic policy.

    My problem with Macron is that he's an "ultra-globalist," and what France really needs is a moderate nationalist, which it's not going to get. It's either a full-blown open borders advocate wholly beholden to the EU or a crackpot who's wholly beholden to Vladimir Putin. There's no in between. That's why Fillon would have been my choice. On economics, he's a free market conservative, and he's moderately nationalist. He wouldn't have pulled out of NATO and hopped in the sack with Putin, but he would have brought the migration problem under control, beefed up anti-terrorism efforts, and pushed the EU for reform.
     
  13. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    The second round wouldn't be a hard choice for me for one second. Turning the keys to your country over and submitting to a self-serving globalist entity. Plus welcoming in the guaranteed invasion. No chance in hell I'd vote for that.

    The other undesirable policies that come with avoiding the above are very important but also can be back-burnered for France to correct down the road. But once you go full Germany, there's no going back without civil war.
     
  14. Phil Elliott

    Phil Elliott 2,500+ Posts

  15. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    The irony of this is that what Le Pen favors would be much harder to reverse if it goes badly. Macron is basically a status quo guy who's still a significant shift to the Right from the current president. Yes, that means an open border and continued membership in the EU and the Eurozone. However, those things can be reformed or reversed at another time. Changing your currency, ditching NATO, and realigning with Russia are much harder to reverse.
     
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  16. Brad Austin

    Brad Austin 2,500+ Posts

    Open borders allowing mass invasion of diametrically opposed cultures with strong desires to impose their way of life instead of integrating is not reversible without forcible removal. Especially with said groups highly supportive of violence in the name of religion, which rules their very existence.

    Once that can of worms opens it's ballgame over for national identity and security. Sweden is already screwed. Germany will be the #1 cautionary tale. Just wait, it only deteriorates exponentially from here. The breeding effect will kick in with following generations even more prone to dissatisfaction and violence.

    Switching to a national currency and ditching NATO...complications abound and setbacks assured, but manageable.

    Realigning with Russia...that's another matter altogether. Is that a stated Le Pen policy or are people making that assumption due to the pledge to leave NATO?
     
    Last edited: Apr 25, 2017
  17. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    Russia is literally bankrolling La Pen's campaign. Marie La Pen took a $15M (not sure the currency) loan from a Russian bank claiming "nobody else would loan me the money".
     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Open borders in Europe isn't the same as open borders in the US. Open borders in Europe means keeping the Schengen Agreement, which allows for free movement between EU countries (passport free). Macron does favor increasing EU border security. That's far from ideal, but it's better than a US politician advocating for open borders.

    Manageable is a matter of opinion and degree. However, changing your currency is a very big deal, and it's not necessarily a smart move by France. I'm not a fan of the Euro, but it does have winners (and some pretty big losers) as well as winners and losers within each country. Germany is its biggest winner, but overall, France is probably also a winner. Dumping it will have some significant downsides in France that'll have to be sorted out. It'll be pretty disruptive.

    Leaving NATO is also a big deal for obvious reasons.

    Depends on what we mean by "realigning." She favors leaving NATO, establishing a security relationship with Russia, and if she wins, will owe her entire presidency to Vladimir Putin. Do the math.
     

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