North Korea: Do we or don't we (invade)?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Musburger1, Mar 14, 2017.

  1. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Wikipedia summary of the breakdown below.

    Final break down of the agreementEdit

    In January 2002 U.S. President George W. Bush labeled North Korea in his first State of the Union Address as part of an Axis of Evil.[32]

    In October 2002, a U.S. delegation led by Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly visited North Korea to confront the North Koreans with the U.S. assessment that they had a uranium enrichment program.[33] The parties' reports of the meeting differ. The U.S. delegation believed the North Koreans had admitted the existence of a highly enriched uranium program.[34] The North Koreans stated Kelly made his assertions in an arrogant manner, but failed to produce any evidence such as satellite photos, and they responded by denying that North Korea planned to produce nuclear weapons using enriched uranium. They went on to state that as an independent sovereign state North Korea was entitled to possess nuclear weapons for defense, although they did not possess such a weapon at that point in time.[6][35][36] Relations between the two countries, which had seemed hopeful two years earlier, quickly deteriorated into open hostility.[11]

    The HEU intelligence that James Kelly’s accusation is based on is still controversial: According to the CIA fact sheet to Congress on November 19, 2002, there was "clear evidence indicating the North has begun constructing a centrifuge facility" and this plant could produce annually enough HEU for two or more nuclear weapons per year when it is finished. However, some experts assessed that the equipment North Korea imported was insufficient evidence of a production-scale enrichment program.[37]

    KEDO members considered in November 2002 whether to halt the fuel oil shipments in response to the previous month's developments. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly warned Japanese officials that the U.S. Congress would not fund such shipments in the face of continued violations. The shipments were halted in December.[38]

    On January 10, 2003, North Korea again announced its withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.[39] On February 10, 2005, North Korea finally declared that it had manufactured nuclear weapons as a "nuclear deterrent for self-defence".[40] On October 9, 2006, North Korea conducted a nuclear test. US intelligence agencies believe that North Korea has manufactured a handful of simple nuclear weapons.

    In December 2003, KEDO suspended work on the pressurized water reactor project. Subsequently, KEDO shifted the focus of its efforts to ensuring that the LWR project assets at the construction site in North Korea and at manufacturers’ facilities around the world ($1.5 billion invested to date) are preserved and maintained.[41]

    Each side blamed the other for ending the Agreed Framework. The United States pointed out that a North Korean uranium enrichment facility would violate the 1992 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,[42] which states "The South and the North shall not possess nuclear reprocessing and uranium enrichment facilities." North Korea accused the United States of a "hostile policy" including deliberately delaying fuel supplies and progress on the KEDO project that "effectively nullified" the agreement, listing North Korea as part of the "Axis of evil" and a target of the U.S. pre-emptive nuclear strikes.[43][44][45]

    Although the agreement had largely broken down, North Korea did not restart work on the two production size nuclear power plants that were frozen under the agreement. These plants could potentially have produced enough weapons-grade plutonium to produce several nuclear weapons per year. The Agreed Framework was successful in freezing North Korean plutonium production in Yongbyon plutonium complex for eight years from 1994 to December 2002;[46] however, it failed to stop North Korea from developing a secret highly enriched uranium program,[47] begun in the "mid- or late-1990's."[48]

    Discussions took place through the Six-party talks about a replacement agreement, reaching a preliminary accord on September 19, 2005. The accord made no mention of the U.S. contention that North Korea has a secret, underground enriched uranium program. However the new accord would require North Korea to dismantle all nuclear facilities, not just specific plants as in the Agreed Framework.[49] Ultimately the Six-party talks were discontinued in 2009.

    On May 31, 2006, KEDO decided to terminate the LWR construction project.[50]
     
  2. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    Put down the vodka, and read, Sergei. I've given my view on this multiple times including in this thread. And what a BS characterization. I make projections and engage your racket all the time. You've probably made half a million rubles this year just off of me. I may not be the hand that feeds you, but I sure as hell do my part. You can't afford to piss me off. :smokin:

    Like I said, I've already addressed this. I wouldn't make any deals with North Korea, and I wouldn't launch a first strike on them. I also wouldn't get into a dick-measuring contest with Kim. If he wants to sabre-rattle, let him do it, and don't retaliate. If he wants to fire a missile or test a nuclear weapon, that's his prerogative. However, I'd make sure that we are militarily prepared for whatever he decides to do. I'd make sure there is effective missile defenses, and I'd make sure there's a reasonable number of troops and equipment in the area to hold Kim back if NK ever invades. If he actually attacks, then we finish him and his regime off. That would be closest to your Option 1, but it doesn't fit it perfectly, because we can't control whether or not NK attacks. All we can do is make sure they get finished off if they ever do. In the meantime, I'd try to bring diplomatic and economic pressure to encourage political freedom in North Korea.

    However, the deal Russia (and therefore you) and China are pitching would easily be the most lopsided deal in the history of American foreign policy. We've never given up so much and gotten so little from anybody. No reason to do that.
     
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  3. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Exactly what would we be giving up by halting the arms escalation? It's not like North Korea has the ability to occupy another country. Or do you think all the misssile defense deployment makes us safer? Hell, Kim will be able to launch from submarines eventually in which case THAAD means absolutely zero.
     
  4. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    We wouldn't be halting the arms escalation. We don't have the ability to stop that, because we can't control what North Korea does. The only thing we'd be doing is making it easier North Korea to launch a missile and making it harder to defend South Korea and Japan.

    They have a very large military for their size (4th in personnel) and nuclear weapons. They can cause a hell of a lot of calamity if allowed to do so.

    THAAD isn't the only component of missile defense. It's mainly for short and medium-range land-based missiles. Different methods are used to defend against SLBMs. The fact that THAAD isn't used for SLBMs doesn't make THAAD useless. Unless Kim gets rid of his short and medium range missiles, THAAD has use.
     
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  5. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    The escalation includes Japan, South Korea, and the inevitable responses of both China and Russia. By refusing to talk, the US has incentivized all parties to escalate.

    Wreaking havoc isn't the same as defeating and then occupying a nation. Starting a war offers no benefits to the NK regime and would result in the destruction of Kim's regime.

    THAAD is a huge sticking point for both China and Russia because it is an element of a layered potential for initiating a first strike nuclear war thus undermining MAD. You repeatedly downplay this but that is an ignorant take because your opinion is irrelevant. What matters is how China and Russia interpret THAAD as a threat.
     
  6. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

  7. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez Beer Prophet

    North Korea is firing missiles, developing nuclear weapons, and threatening to use them on people. They are the escalators in the equation.

    I don't think it's in his best interests to start a war, but leaders don't always act rationally. Before setting up the current narrative, you described Kim as a "dangerous loon." Well, a dangerous loon will start wars even when they don't make sense from a rational standpoint. Sometimes it's ideological reasons. Sometimes it's arrogance and delusions of grandeur.

    As we've discussed in Russia threads, MAD is effective when there are only a small number of nuclear powers, all of whom are reasonably rational. That was the case during the Cold War when the US, the Soviet Union, France, Britain, and China had nuclear weapons. When "dangerous loons" have nuclear weapons, MAD loses its effectiveness. And Russia and China know this. Our difference is that you believe (or claim to believe) Russia and China are sincere when they say they're worried about THAAD enabling a first nuclear strike by the United States on them. I think they're bullshitting to serve their own purposes.

    I'm not a fan of every facet of how the Administration is handling North Korea. Trump (not surprisingly) has gotten into the dick-measuring contest angle with his rhetoric, and I don't think that's smart or productive. I do favor sanctions, but things like oil embargoes and interdicting ships, etc. are needlessly antagonizing. I'd rather keep our mouths shut, keep a global consensus on things like sanctions, and stand by our guns on defense matters. That's where I don't yield.
     
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  8. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Fair enough. That's a reasonable response.
     
  9. Htown77

    Htown77 5,000+ Posts

    Plenty of people start wars that make no sense and they will clearly lose. Semi-recent example: The Argentinean invasion of the Falklands. I belive the North Korean Leadership to currently be far less rational than the Argentinean Military Government during the Falklands War.
     
  10. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    The modern Slim Pickens


    [​IMG]
     
    • Like Like x 2
  11. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    oopsy --


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  12. Clean

    Clean 5,000+ Posts

    Nobody wins at the all out nuclear war game, as the super computer in "War Games" finally figured out. Russia and the U.S. kept the peace for 50 years because both feared Mutually Assured Destruction. I'm not so sure N.Korea and Iran aren't crazy enough to try it.
     
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  13. Musburger1

    Musburger1 2,500+ Posts

    Anytime psychopaths have power, they tend to do whatever is necessary to hold on. Once it becomes inevitable they will not retain power, they have no problem destroying any and everything. They are willing to take the whole world with them. I think Kim may fall within these parameters but not Iran at this point. They behave rationally. If the US begins to lose control, there are certainly irrational and psychopathic elements within the US power structure that concern me.
     
  14. Seattle Husker

    Seattle Husker 10,000+ Posts

    Who thinks it's smart to simultaneously claim a country is on a suicide mission and mock them?

    I need to return the Colin Powell quote to my signature which he calls Trump an idiot.
     
  15. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
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  16. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  17. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  18. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

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