In the absence of further information, what can we conclude? Clearly, despite the discrepancy between the results, younger people are less likely to agree with the scientifically established view of the shape of the Earth. Yet, B.o.B. and Kyrie Irving notwithstanding, the spreadsheet data indicate that they are not substantially more likely to agree that the Earth is flat. Indeed, firm belief in a flat Earth was rare, with less than a 2 percent acceptance rate in all age groups.
Rather, according to the spreadsheet data, younger people were more likely to be uncertain or ambivalent about the shape of the Earth, either agreeing that they have recently entertained doubts that the Earth is round or opting for the “Other/Not Sure” choice on the questionnaire. Importantly, these responses weren’t distinctive to those aged 18 to 24 but were comparably prevalent among those aged 25 to 34 and those aged 35 to 44.
Why, then, are younger people more likely to be uncertain or ambivalent? Perhaps they are more likely to offer frivolous or ironic responses, as
Earther’s Brian Kahn
suggests; perhaps they have not learned science as well as their elders did; perhaps they are more religious, as YouGov’s claim that more than half of flat-earthers considered themselves very religious hints; perhaps they are moving in social circles that encourage mistrust of authority.
Existing data helps: the fact that younger people are more likely to accept the scientifically established views on the history of life and the cause of global warming suggests that they
have learned science at least as well as their elders did, and the fact that
younger people are less likely to be as religious as their elders suggests that their lower levels of round-earthery are
not driven only by a higher degree of religiosity.
But further survey research will be necessary to winnow the possible explanations. There is a critical lesson to be learned here: the results of a single public opinion survey are by no means authoritative. Differences in the phrasing of questions, variance in the methods of polling, randomness and error and (rarely but sadly) misconduct: all of these guarantee that a single survey should never be taken as the last word.
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