Fact: We weren't "a year away"

One thing that jumps out at me right away after two games is this: I'm glad I didn't buy into the hype.

This team has all the makings of a group that could be really good in a year, or two, with more good recruiting. But what I'm seeing right now on offense is a starting QB that quite frankly is playing pretty OK for a sophomore, and is actually showing improvement in some areas. I'm seeing an o-line that's rounding into shape but still isn't where it needs to be in the run game. I'm seeing a decent running back group where a true freshman is clearly the best of the group. I'm seeing a solid group of receivers with some game-breaking capability. And basically that adds up to an offense that makes some plays, looks out of sorts at times, and is starting to develop some sort of identity.

On defense, this team looks like a group that hasn't recruited well on the d-line in almost a decade. That's causing solid linebackers to look mediocre at times, and while we're holding up OK in the straight-up run game against lower level talent, I don't see this team shutting down a good running game. We've got a secondary that has some guys who are extraordinarily talented and athletic, but is still making freshman mistakes because they're freshmen. But they're not getting help from upperclassmen who aren't as talented, and have some real limits on what they can do.

With another strong recruiting class, I like where we're going with talent, I'm just concerned that the bar is being raised by A&M and Oklahoma, and the longer this takes to get rolling, the farther we get from signing the 5-stars across the board that we need to get this program back.

I picked eight wins this year and they can still get that, and maybe even more if the switch really gets flipped. My HOPE (and yes, I know what some of you are going to say...) is that there are some things we're not putting out there on offense yet, particularly every time I watch Sam roll the pocket out on a two-man rout that effectively takes away about two-thirds of the field - and has been predictably ineffective.

What I like so far:
- We're being more stubborn with the run. This team definitely looks best when it's running between the tackles and opening cutback lanes, which ONE of our backs is really good at seeing, and another one occasionally is...
- When Sam decides to play hero ball - which we all know can't be what the offense is - he's still pretty good at all the things we liked about him last year.
- The receiver screen game is much improved now that Sam is starting to throw in front of his receiver and get him headed toward the line of scrimmage quicker (this was not happening against Maryland, it was against Tulsa, and LJH had a big game partly because of that.)
- Pass blocking has not been a liability to this point.
- Straight run defense has generally been pretty good except the stupid jet sweep.

What has to change:
- We have to have a plan for eight-man drops. My vote is quick hitches out of the backfield to Watson, more called QB draws, and oh yeah, stop getting in third and long so much... (Having said that... We did a much better job against it than we did against Maryland, but that's partly because Tulsa's defense sucks.)
- More wildcat with LJH.
- Sam has to stop holding the ball on the zone read and make a decision. The runs are taking WAY too long to develop and it's hanging his backs out to dry. Make a decision and go with it. Have a plan for what you're going to do if the end doesn't commit.
- (Related) - Never EVER EVER EVER call another zone read on a play where you need less than a yard, particularly inside the 5. It's stupid. It does not work except against really really bad defenses.
- Fix. The. Punt. Protection. Now.
- Brandon Jones needs to get back. We miss him terribly.
- (Assuming the above happens) Blitz. A lot. Our pass rush is absolutely abysmal right now and that has to change. Maybe that's just us playing base, vanilla defense and maybe not, but I'm not sure we've hit a QB with a four-man rush yet. At some point, we're going to have to trust the DBs to make plays back there, and they're having to do that anyway. Might as well at least give them a smaller window of time to have to defend.
- Ingram needs 20 touches a game.
- Watson should get at least three receptions a game.
- More tempo. PLEASE...
- This team has to figure out how to stay dialed in for an entire game.

I'm not sunshine pumping. This team is not as bad as people are saying. There's hope, and there's actual improvement that's getting obscured by some frustrating mistakes and lackadaisical/tight/inexperienced/unprepared/care-to-much mistakes (or whatever reason/excuse we're hearing this week.)

But those of you who point to a couple of NFL drafted upper classmen as proof that this team is "loaded with talent" are missing what I've seen at Texas as long as I've followed it. Texas will ALWAYS have a handful of really talented guys. You can't win with a handful of really talented guys. You need talent up and down the lineup, and we're not there yet with this group. Offensive line still needs an upgrade. QB still needs an upgrade (maybe with experience? Maybe with one of the young guys? Maybe RJ comes in next year and makes us forget VY? Who knows...) DL still needs an upgrade.

Herman will have one more year at least after this. He's not going anywhere. So let's see what he does with this and where it ends up at year's end.

 

Excellent post.

 

Amen bro. It is already happening.

 

Great post and spot on amigo!

 

I remember being at the Astros game in 2004 while the ou game was on. This was that painful 12-0 game. The guy on the row in front of us had a small battery-powered tv with the game on so we were able to watch it over his shoulder. There always seem to be UT fans right behind home plate at Astros games, including my entire party of 5 that day. We were pretty grumpy. Once it was over, I can remember saying somewhat loudly "We are going to beat them next year. We are going to win all our games!" (we may have had a little to drink). In response, the oldest guy in my group doubled over in laughter, patting my back, barely able to get the words out - "You sound just like an aggy!" He was right, but history shows I was too.

Doesnt it feel like we have been in a perpetual state of "a year away" ever since? We were actually a year away at the time of that game, and close a couple more times since. But not close since 2010.

Rarely have the people who are actually responsible for this state of affairs (that group of really smart folks) been held accountable. There was one guy who tried to break this cycle of mediocrity we have been in for the last 10 years, but the UT Deep State got so mad at him, he was charged criminally. Hard to imagine anyone else willing to step up after that. We lousy $100-fans have zero chance of forcing any meaningful improvement. We have only one tool in our toolbag and its not a very good choice. That leaves message boards and drinking buddies.

 

Prodigal Horn,
That was the best post of the year! You said what a lot of us were trying to say. You know football, obviously. This team will improve. And if we stay patient calling plays and even patient with SE, this will get better. I'm not saying SE is THE answer. But patience may be! If we beat USC Saturday, confidence could sore and this thing could roll. I am not saying 11-1 but it wont be pushing a boulder over a mountain as it has been in week 1 and 2.

 

Very good analysis on blitzing more to create pressure, QB draws to attack 8 man coverages, the slowness of the ZR plays & our short yardage play calling.
Would like to see Roach moved to the D-line as well & replaced with someone with more speed (Foster?). Way too slow to play LB, esp in the Big 12.
We have decent playmakers at WR. Wish we had a more accurate QB to get them the ball. You are dead in about getting more touches for Ingram. Also, I think Young & Watson should split the remaining carries. Young is different than the other 2 with his physical running style & provides a good change of pace compared to Ingram or Watson.

 

I loved using Young late in the game against Tulsa. He's more of a bowling ball, and he definitely took advantage of a tired TU defense. More, please!

 

Seriously Tulsa could have blocked about four punts Saturday the way two and three guys were coming in untouched.

Great post and I agree with just about everything, I would add one comment of my own, Tom Herman has this year and next year too to really right the ship, my problem is less the time that will take for him to get his guys and his system in place than it is the arrogance and condescending comments he has made. He is fast becoming John Mackovick part deux in that regard and that just wont fly for very long .

 

Great post

 

It felt to me like in the 1st half we used the pass to set up the run. Then in the 2nd half we reversed that and it failed. Once Tulsa closed it to 21-14 we passed to set up the run again and instantly succeeded - in both the run game and the pass game - like we had in the 1st half.

Also, lets give Tom the proper credit for handling the RB situation well this game. He went with a 2-man rotation instead of trying to play 4 or 5 guys all game, and they both got a good share of touches and got into mini-rhythms. And then at the perfect time he brings out Young, our beefiest RB, who is completely fresh, when Tulsa's defense is tired and on their heels, to pick up first downs and keep the clock moving and end the game. And we all know that if Young had run 3 times without a first and we had punted, or if Young had fumbled the ball away, our fanbase would be erupting in rage for the obviously idiotic and indefensible move of putting in a different running back than the guys who we'd been relying on all game.

 

Great post, but its so much more fun to pile on Tom Herman. Way to be a wet blanket, bro.

Seriously I have to admit, for some reason its just easy for me not to like Tom Herman and that has colored many of my comments from the last couple of weeks.

Its been a disappointing start, but we are 1-1 and have almost our entire season ahead of us, and lots of potential (per usual, see below). If Tom Herman gets things going in the right direction, and I hope he does, I am going to feel like the real idoit.

Its just dismaying to still* be rebuilding and talking about potential after all these years. But here we are. We have had good recruiting classes but way too much washout (at coach and player level)
I still believe that a great coach can* turn a team around in one season, but that is probably the exception, not the rule.
Perhaps consistency is the ingredient we have been missing all these years?

 

Good post. I hate the Zone Read as we do it. Looks like an invitation to a 2 yard loss.

 

Please allow me to shoot a big hole in your theory.

I don't care if we are one year away or 20 years away. The fact is Texas is as superior in talent to Maryland and Tulsa as Bama is to us. This isn't about talent, this is about coaching. This is like a 2002 USC team that looked like crap and the following year a 2003 USC team under Pete Carroll can become the AP National Champs.

If Jimbo Fisher were coaching at Texas, they would be 2-0 and right in the top 20. If you doubt this, you aren't paying too close attention to what is happening in collieville.

The offense is a QB away from being really good. Sam is not a good QB, period. He might develop into one one day, but right now he is a horrible passer and makes very poor decisions. He is not ready to be the starter.

Oline is good enough to run this offense. Texas has talent in the RBs and Wrs. It's all about the QB right now.

The defense is struggling, but they are playing good enough to win. Our coaches are dropping the ball with this team.

Being a year away counts when you are talking about Texas vs Oklahoma, not when Texas is losing to Maryland. That doesn't hold water.

 

You're contradicting yourself.

Maybe to Tulsa. Not to Maryland. And even then, as you yourself point out, it's not an across the board gap. That matters. It's a team sport. And btw, Maryland just hammered Bowling Green about as hard as Oregon did. They're an actual football team with actual quality players. And they're not that far below us in talent. You can jump up and down and yell "that's not true, we're Texas" all you want.

I remember Fred Akers saying something like that before losing to SMU on national television in '82. "We're Texas. That counts for something." No it doesn't. You can talk all you want about how we're Texas and we shouldn't be a year away, but that's not an argument. That's you being a fan.

It might well be true that we'd be 2-0. Maybe Jimbo would have called the "Touchdown" play more often. But it wouldn't change the fact that you yourself pointed out, which is we still don't have a top-tier QB running the show.

We'd at best be 2-0 and still looking at a year where we're not talented enough to match up at the top level, but have an outside shot at winning the conference with a few breaks. It wouldn't change who we are, it would mask the deficiencies a little more.

And btw... if you think we have an offensive line, defensive line, or linebacker corps that's in the same league with top tier programs right now, then may I submit that YOU are the one who hasn't been paying attention.

And if we had the 2002 USC roster, then you might have an argument. But we don't. Not even close.

 

Apparently that's me - I get that from at the office, where I'm apparently the resident "devil's advocate" viewpoint. I'm cool with that, though - someone has to do it!

 

Ehlinger sucks, but who is supposed to be teaching him how to play the position? Who is putting him in a position to fail? It's not a contradiction to put the blame both on the player and the coach.

Is Bowling Green a good team? Is Bowling Green our new standard? Are they a P5 school? Your grasping at straws

I also remember that same SMU squad going undefeated, not the same as losing to Maryland and almost losing to Tulsa. If Maryland goes undefeated then losing to them becomes something respectable, but until then I'm taking it as a major poop stain on Tom Herman's resume.

Then again, maybe a better QB coach can do for Ehlinger what Jimbo has done for Kellen Mond. BTW I want to give Kellen a big shout out. I went to high school with his dad Kevin, I also live a few street away from the Mond family. He is a damn fine young man.

I never said we had a top tier offensive line or defensive line. I said we had a line good enough to run our offense. And I stand by that. I also strongly believe we have a line good enough to beat Maryland and Tulsa. But we didn't, so that is again on the coaches.

I get the feeling you would defend these coaches if they lost to Midland Lee.

Lol, Texas has about 15 guys in their two deep with legit NFL potential. Texas has about 6 guys who will be invited to the NFL combine. Calvin Anderson, Brecklyn Hager, Charles Omenahu, Gary Johnson, Chris Boyd, and Collin Johnson.

Texas has three more that are borderline combine guys in Tre Watson, LJ Humphries, and Brandon Jones.

This is a team with as much talent as the 2009 team that played for the MNC, the only thing it really doesn't have is a Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley.

Oh, and it doesn't have a coach...

 

This is a team with as much talent as the 2009 team that played for the MNC, the only thing it really doesn't have is a Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley.

Oh, and it doesn't have a coach...
Wait....whhuuuttt? Holy cow, that 2009 team had a senior qb with TWO receivers that were 30 years old! That's an exaggeration but I don't know how many times Cosby and Shipley were there for Colt. I can't go player for player but must strongly disagree and say in two years you'll see a team that has a senior qb and closer to as much talent as the 2009 team. You'd be close r to right if Malik and Conner had stayed along with Hill and that other db can't recollect that shouldn't have come out but did....

 

looking now....Kennan Robinson, Sergio Kindle, Fozzy, Kenny Vaccaro, Aaron Williams, Justin Tucker, Jared Norton, Earl Thomas, Lamarr Houston, Roddrick Muckelroy, Sam Acho, Marquise Goodwin, DJ Monroe (before Mack hated him) and MY BEST FRIEND Blake Gideon (not). All players that either were huge contributors and/or headed for the NFL. This team is not that team, bro.....

 

Considering that you literally missed the point of every single thing that I said, then I'm not surprised you'd say that.

 

Quan wasn't on the 2009 team, but I get his point.

By my count, the 2009 team had 23 guys who sniffed NFL rosters or became lasting contributors in the league. It's too early to tell with some of the younger guys on our current team, especially the freshmen.

 

"masking the deficiencies" is what good coaches can do. In fact some people would call that preparation. Few teams don't have deficiencies, but they minimize them and maximize their competencies.
Did we do that the last two weeks? Honestly?
Maryland came prepared to minimize their deficiencies, and exploit ours. We lost because we did not do that. We treated like it was a scrimmage or something. Just seeing what works and what doesn't... Maryland is not as bad as people say, but to argue that they are as talented as we are. Come on.

Also, we are as good as our record. 2-0 means something. Its something to build on.
I think had we been better prepared to mask our deficiencies last season we might have won 8 or 9 games. That really does count for something. Even if we still have deficiencies. Plenty of Mack Brown's teams had deficiencies, but they rarely if ever showed up against the Marylands of the world (we may have gotten bombed by OU for them though)

 

I think it will be fun to revisit this in November

 

The year isn't over

 

Here is a snippet of the IT position on 'team unrest'

" ..... There is a lot of unrest and frustration in program after the win over Tulsa. Tom Herman likes to say winning is hard and they're going to celebrate wins regardless of who they are over. Nobody wanted to celebrate that one. The team went back to work on Sunday, again working on the little things. Last week the team knew it needed to tackle better and that aspect was given priority. We saw improvement in that regard.

I asked about the lack of pressure on the quarterback. That is something the staff was working on yesterday. It was told to me they aren't blitzing enough to make life easier on the Breckyn Hager and Charles Omenihu. I asked where the four-man fronts were? "A lot of people are wondering that." Lining Hager and Omenihu up wide would make getting to the quarterback much easier.

Texas has three defenders who are not in the position they will be looked at for the NFL. Malcolm Roach is one of them, "they need to put him at defensive end and leave him there." That would put Jeff McCulloch on the field at B-backer. He has more range and is also a good pass rusher. I asked for any other personnel decisions that could be made to improve the team. "Anthony Cook should be playing ahead of Kobe Boyce. Josh Thompson at nickel should be permanent. They can't do it now, but Shane Buechele should be given some game time."...."​

 

Good point. Quan was the prior year fiesta bowl over sweater vested Ohio state iirc

 

For the life of me, I do not understand the fixation with Malcom Roach as a LB. I get that they WANT a guy that big who can cover backs and slot receivers, because it takes the Dime package to another level. But since he can't do those things, it seems like it defeats the purpose.

 

I haven’t kept up with this entire thread but I’m with Austin_Bill on this one, it’s all about coaching. It’s like Bum Phillips said about Beat Bryant, “Bryant can take his'n and beat your'n, and then he can turn around and take your'n and beat his' n.”

This team has enough talent to run the table. Yes, I said that. Not that they will, or even get close. But they could.

And, I’m not saying that TH can’t make it happen. Perhaps he can. We simply haven’t seen any evidence— yet — that he can get it done at Texas. But I am ...hopeful. After all, what choice do I have?

Back to talent, at the beginning of last year many were observing that we had “no talent.” That was disproven. With rare exceptions, talent is developed. Perhaps the perfect example is VY. Yes, he was a coveted recruit, but so are many of the players on our current roster. VY struggled at Texas initially and as we all know, there was talk of moving him to a different position.

Talent at the college level and above = sustained excellence. Great players with potential aren’t actually great until they “become great.” Yes, I know, that seems nonsensical. Was 5 star Malik Jefferson “great” throughout his Texas career? I would argue that he was not. As a recruit, some suggested he was so talented that he could potentially bypass college and go directly to the League. That turned out not to be the case.

Poona Ford was hardly on the radar screen when he came to Texas. He left as a dominant player.

Like I said, it’s all about the coaching. If/when TH reaches his stride, just watch, our talent will be “great...”

 

Texas IS NOT getting 6 guys invited to the combine. I will take that bet any day. Charles O is not getting invited. Gary Johnson is questionable for an invite. Same with Collin Johnson.
Y'all are both right. We are not that talented, especially at key spots like QB. And we are also not well-coached. When you have questionable talent & lose the coaching battle each week, then bad things can happen (ie. 1st 2 games).
Sad thing is I don't know if next year will be any different at QB. I guess the best hope is that Cam Rising or Fresh Roschon Johnson can set the world on fire.

 

What if it isn't the coach, or the players, but the culture surrounding the program? That is what we should really be concerned about...that would be a much harder fix.