Besides the impact on CFP voters of UCF losing their star QB, UCF plays Memphis this Saturday in their conference title game.
Earlier this year, in October, Memphis led UCF through 3 quarters, only losing it in the 4th 31-30, so with or without that QB that game is not a given for UCF.
I was looking at the possibilities you suggest leading to an out, out, outside chance of the CFP now for Texas.
Last voting, Texas was at 14, with the standings looking like this:
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Notre Dame
4 Michigan
5 Georgia
6 Oklahoma
7 LSU
8 Washington State
9 UCF
10 Ohio State
11 Florida
12 Penn State
13 West Virginia
14 Texas
After the Thanksgiving week games, the following are likely to be passed, as of this moment, by Texas, just by raw records (I know WSU is 10-2 and LSU is 9-3, but with recent losses), that is losses by these teams this past week:
13 WVU
8 WSU
7 LSU
I'm not so sure, before the games this weekend, that the following will be passed by Texas in this early week's CFP balloting (if they do that before the title games coming up):
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Notre Dame
4 Michigan
5 Georgia
6 Oklahoma
9 UCF
10 Ohio State
11 Florida
12 Penn State
Sure, Michigan will drop; but more on that in a sec.
Now, if, IF the following happens Saturday:
No. 9 UCF loses to Memphis
No. 1 Alabama beats No. 5 Georgia, I think by any score
No. 2 Clemson beats Pitt in their title game
No. 3 Notre Dame doesn't decide to forfeit the season and bail out
No. 10 Ohio State loses their title game to Northwestern (this is probably the longest shot in all of this)
No. 14 Texas beats Oklahoma
then, all else being the same, based purely on winners and losers, we'd have, IMHO, before CFP voting, using most recent polling, before Thanksgiving:
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Notre Dame
4 Michigan
5 Georgia
11 Florida
12 Penn State
14 Texas
The first question is how far down the CFP committee votes Michigan down from last week based on its loss to OSU. Followed closely by the question of how far down the committee would vote Georgia down by losing to Alabama in the SEC game.
The other stickers would be how high UP the committee would value Texas beating OU for the second time in a single season; would they both 1) vote them over Penn State and Florida, at the same time they 2) vote Michigan and Georgia DOWN below Texas based on the OSU loss and prospective loss to Alabama, respectively.
Not out of the question, but of course, the absolute most important thing, regardless of what everyone else does, is to BEAT THE HELL OUT OF OU!!
Last edited: Nov 25, 2018