Time for a prediction. China and the US will not be able to resolve the technology issues and most tariffs will remain in place. However I believe China will concede on one major point that will allow Trump to make a deal and declare victory. Here’s where things come together. China has stopped importing food and the US agricultural industry is in trouble. And this forms Trump’s base in the Midwest. But China has lost millions of pigs to disease and its corn growing sector (second globally behind the US) is having a horrible growing season; maybe worse than our own. China badly needs the food imports and Trump needs the deal to rescue his farm base. A food trade deal will be signed with everything else on hold or down the drain.
