Longhorn Baseball 2020

Discussion in 'Baseball' started by sbmcruise, May 19, 2019.

  1. sbmcruise

    sbmcruise 100+ Posts

    At the end of every season I sit down and try to look forward to the next year. I drop this year’s roster into a spreadsheet and then eliminate those players who are out of eligibility:

    Matteo Bocchi
    Masen Hibbeler
    Brandon Ivey
    Michael McCann
    Tate Shaw

    DJ Petrinsky is a Senior and would be out of eligibility, but will qualify for a medical redshirt because of his season ending shoulder surgery, if he wants to apply for one. We have three incoming freshman catchers, but it would be nice to have a veteran catcher to show them around and he can also play 1B and hit.

    Next I look critically at those players eligible for the MLB draft:

    Blair Henley-3.54 ERA not hugely impressive, but he did have some really strong games. Good body pitchers with similar stats and without significant injuries will usually sign.

    Ryan Reynolds-superior defense, but he only hit .272 with 4 HR, so not sure how high he will go. He was drafted in 25th Round out of HS. He could be on the fence and would be a huge asset for Texas if he comes back for his senior year.

    Austin Todd-good defense, but he only hit .256 with 3 HR. He could go or stay, but he is not a huge difference maker one way or the other.

    Duke Ellis-good defense and faster than Austin Todd. He only hit .266 with only 1 HR, but he gets on base a lot and steals bases. He could go or stay, but he is not a huge difference maker one way or the other.

    David Hamilton-his preseason surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon significantly contributed to our terrible year. David is a huge talent defensively, hits well with some power and stole 31 bases in 2018. Much of David’s value depends on his quickness and some people can never restore their abilities in competitive sports or running after an Achilles tendon repair. Since the full rehabilitation cycle for this injury is about a year, it will be challenging for a MLB team to determine David’s worth. I mostly hear that he will be drafted high enough to sign and that will let the MLB team manage the rest of his recovery. This could go either way with the high degrees of potential gain and uncertainty.

    After all of this I only see two definite returning starting position players: Freshmen Eric Kennedy and Lance Ford. That’s really scary considering our .500 record this year with many more veteran players. Our recent recruiting classes were ranked as follows by Perfect Game:


    2015 18th
    2016 35th
    2017 97th
    2018 7th
    2019 25th

    Unfortunately these recruiting class rankings tell much of the story, except in 2018 we have had significant recruiting failures year after year. The 2015 and 2016 classes were exclusively Augie’s responsibility. Much of 2017 recruiting class ranking was too, since much of the recruiting of those players was already pretty much done by the time Pierce was signed June 29, 2016. The 2019 recruiting class rank won’t be final until after the July 15 signing day and until school starts. Sometimes a player signs a LOI in November and doesn’t sign a pro contract, but ends up in a junior college because of grades or a desire to be draft eligible the next year instead of waiting until after his junior year.

    The MLB draft is June 2-5 and the last day for drafted players with remaining eligibility to sign is July 15. We will know much more then. I remain very concerned about our 2020 team composition because of so much uncertainty in the draft and pro contract signing of this year’s players and recruits for next year.
     
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  2. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Good synopsis sbm. Next season for college baseball teams is always a work in progress until the end of the MLB signing period. Baylor, Tceh and TCU seemingly have passed Texas on the field which either points to better recruiting and player retention and/or better coaching. Pierce knows the game, but some moves, especially after the TCU series, seemed strange. On top of that quality pitching became non-existent as the season progressed.
     
  3. zuckercanyon

    zuckercanyon 2,500+ Posts

    Although not a fan of Pierce, I wonder if a "new era" in college baseball has Texas as a program handcuffed. Shorter seasons (since 2008, Fresno State) make it more of a "who wants it/is healthy" event. Coastal Carolina wins the whole thing a couple of years ago....The key seems to be to get excellent draft-worthy high schoolers to come spend three years at your program....Depth is needed because one injury (such as ours to a scooter riding shortstop) can derail a season......Anyone have any ideas what the recent CWS schools are doing? Augie had a special group that Pierce took to Omaha last year, but they had "it", and there were a couple of "bulldogs" in there, that would do whatever it takes to win....
     
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  4. n64ra

    n64ra 1,000+ Posts

    Last place - pathetic. At least next year can't be worse.
     
  5. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
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  6. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Great until he gets drafted in the 1st or 2nd round.
     
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  7. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

  8. sbmcruise

    sbmcruise 100+ Posts

    Can baseball borrow him?
     
  9. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    I think about a little bit that every time I see another Josh Bell HR highlight

    Frank Coonelly looks back eight years to the 2011 MLB Draft and remembers “a lot of internal discussion and debate” about Josh Bell and his stated commitment to play collegiately at Texas.

    Bell, a high school senior at Dallas Jesuit at the time, had written letters to every major league team, warning them not to draft him. He was going to college.

    Coonelly, the Pittsburgh Pirates president, said team officials believed the letter was “legitimate” and not a ploy — such as other players had tried — to get him drafted by a club willing to pay the best signing bonus.

    “We really believed he and his family had made a commitment to Texas and wanted to go to college,” Coonelly said.

    But Coonelly, general manager Neal Huntington and others in the front office had spoken to their area scouts, who also knew this about Bell: “He wanted to be a major league player, ultimately, and he wanted to be a great major league player.....“We thought we could make a case that starting in the Pirates organization was his best opportunity to become a superstar.”

    Coonelly and Huntington knew the risks, so they waited until the second round to draft Bell after they took Gerrit Cole as MLB’s first overall pick. They gave Bell a record $5 million signing bonus to close the deal, and the payoff has arrived this season as Bell is hitting .310 with 21 home runs while leading the majors with 68 RBIs less than halfway through the season...."

    President Frank Coonelly reflects on how Josh Bell became a Pirate | TribLIVE.com
     
  10. sbmcruise

    sbmcruise 100+ Posts

     
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  11. sbmcruise

    sbmcruise 100+ Posts

    Mixed emotions.

    I like David and have really enjoyed watching him play in Burnt Orange and White. I wish him the best.

    I'm frustrated that he almost single-handily wrecked our 2019 season. Without him at SS, we weren't in the top 50 programs in Double Plays Per Game. Of course there were other injuries and a major coaching failure at mid-season too. I'm frustrated that he has now decided not to come back and make amends. If he had returned next year, he would still have had 2 years eligibility remaining, so MLB teams couldn't have squeezed him like they do Seniors with no remaining eligibility.

    I guess he and his doctors are in the best position to gauge his recovery. Recovery from this injury and resultant surgery typically takes a year and not all athletes return to pre-injury speed and quickness. If he had doubts, the safe course was to take the money and run. I hope he got more that the $162,700 slot money. I heard he was being offered $400K. If so, he probably made the smart choice. I'll check on MLB Draft Tracker for his signing bonus amount after he has actually signed.
     
  12. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Not sure that was his best move. 253rd player selected paying $162,000 with no bonus money.
     
  13. zuckercanyon

    zuckercanyon 2,500+ Posts

    I'm figuring his contract with the Brewers has a line regarding scooters....
     
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  14. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life Good Bye To All The Rest!

    I'm guessing he knows something about the program we do not. I would bet if he thought we had a shot at contending for anything seriously he would have come back to try to improve his draft status while helping us win something. Otherwise he goes to make some cash developing with other pro players making it one year closer to the majors where he will still get some serious cash.

    This makes me wonder what's really going on with the program.
     
    • poop poop x 1
  15. longhorn47

    longhorn47 500+ Posts

    Maybe he's just tired of school and wants to get on with his professional career. The sooner he starts, the sooner he makes it to the bigs, if he's going to get there.
     
  16. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life Good Bye To All The Rest!


    Maybe that too.
     
  17. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Could be; could not be. He wanted a new challenge so let's hope he is a good ambassador for Texas. There is some somewhat good evidence that players with some college spend less time in the minors if they make it to the show. However, for the next several seasons all he has to look forward to is bus rides, sleeping 3 or 4 to a room on the road and box meals.
     
  18. sbmcruise

    sbmcruise 100+ Posts

    MLB Draft Tracker shows he signed for $400,000. Probably the smart decision for him.
     
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  19. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    The Club reported a salary of $162k so the signing bonus appears to have been $238k. If he hired an agent the agent gets his cut off the top. Depending on how the bonus is paid, he will be in either the 32% or 35% federal tax bracket for 2019 and 7.65% or 6.27% Wisconsin tax bracket. Hopefully, he has enough money to have found a good tax attorney and is smart enough not to have listened to the agent.

    $400k doesn't go far.
     
  20. zuckercanyon

    zuckercanyon 2,500+ Posts

    No matter how you slice it, the 2020 team just got weaker.....
     
  21. longhorn47

    longhorn47 500+ Posts

    Every time I see Josh Bell hit a HR, I sob...
     
  22. sbmcruise

    sbmcruise 100+ Posts

    After the Josh Bell debacle, I will never again believe any high school 1-10 MLB Draft candidate who emphatically claims he's going to school. He's just cutting a deal with a specific team who wants to draft him late and pay him $. The present signing bonus cap only partially discourages this.
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2019
  23. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
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  24. sbmcruise

    sbmcruise 100+ Posts

    George and I ran into Adrian Alaniz during the HS State Tournament and he said great things about this guy.

    As per my post above, I will believe when I see him in our fall ball. I've had my heart broken too many times.
     
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  25. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    In the entire history of PNC Park, only 4 players have completely cleared the stadium to drop a ball into the Allegheny (the Astros' DWard was the first in 2002). Josh Bell has done it twice already this season. He's 26.
     
    • WTF? WTF? x 1
  26. MajesticII

    MajesticII 1,000+ Posts

    All these flame throwers and heavy hitters will go pro. Gotta recruit projects and coach them up. Question is do we have the staff to do that ? Judging from the pitching and hitting we saw this last season, that is a big question.
     
    • poop poop x 1
  27. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  28. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  29. zuckercanyon

    zuckercanyon 2,500+ Posts

    As always, Joe, thanks for the update, but replacing a volunteer assistant doesn't scream "I'm making changes!"
     
  30. Phil Elliott

    Phil Elliott 2,500+ Posts

    On The Horn they said it was more than just Haig and that those guys might be headed as a group to SHSU to take over that program.
     

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