Here is the ESPN FPI prediction
11. TEXAS -- Projected final record: 9.5-3.1
The word: Can Texas win the Big 12 this fall? ESPN's FPI is projecting at least two losses coming at LSU and to Oklahoma with another potentially happening at Oklahoma State. Following a full coaching staff makeover, this is make or break time for Tom Herman, who enters his fourth season knowing all eyes will be glued to Austin to see if the Longhorns are Big 12 title material and then some. Chris Ash inherits a defense that largely underachieved last season for various reasons and will continue the development of Joseph Ossai and Caden Sterns, two leaders on that side. The most important player for Texas is quarterback Sam Ehlinger. This team's championship hopes ride on his shoulders. If he can stay healthy, new OC Mike Yurcich believes the sky is the limit for this offense.
They define FPI as
"measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."