Coronavirus

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Clean, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. Horns11

    Horns11 10,000+ Posts

    IFR has way too big a range though. CFR is steady and gives an easier-to-understand version if trending is up/down/etc. Assuming the consumer knows/understands that CFR doesn't mean 4.9 percent of people who catch it actually die.

    There are still people out there who believe that IFR is 80x less due to the first batches of flawed antibody tests. That would mean that literally half of the country has contracted Covid.
     
  2. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Better to estimate?
     
  3. Clean

    Clean 5,000+ Posts

    Unknown. These people were sick enough to go get tested. That's all I know.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2020
  4. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    Just left a medical staff meeting at a large Level 1 trauma center in Georgia. Covid cases continue to rise, but are not a concern from a hospital resource perspective. They are not going to ICU any longer, rather isolation rooms primarily in a med/surg wing. Patients are doing well with Redemsivir and steroids. I have no direct knowledge of Texas hospitals, but my guess is they are fine as well.
     
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    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. Clean

    Clean 5,000+ Posts

    There were about 20 in the tracking database total, before last week. I'd say a 100% increase denotes a pretty big uptick. Especially since 80% or more of us work from home.
     
  6. Clean

    Clean 5,000+ Posts

    San Antonio had 1263 new cases yesterday. We'd been averaging 500-600 a day.

    Now Lefty Mayor demands businesses ask you questions about your health and take your temperature before admitting you! Seems like untrained people taking temperatures would be a real quick way to spread the infection to me.
     
    • poop poop x 1
  7. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Clean, my poop was towards the whole thing, not you.
     
    • Like Like x 4
  8. horninchicago

    horninchicago 10,000+ Posts

    Guessing people who would not usually go to a doctor for these kinds of symptoms are now running out to get tested. How many are dying?

    My cousin is a nurse in La. He told me yesterday he has Covid now for about a week. 51 like me. Mild symptoms and the loss of smell and taste. He surmises that the initial outbreak, no there way to put it really, wiped out the weakest people. Now, it seems to not be having the same effect on most people who are getting it.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Yes Joe Fan, because in this case the estimate is more accurate, close to reality, than the CFR calculation. Even using it as a relative number doesn't help because testing policy, i.e. who gets tested, has changed significantly over time.
     
  10. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    Yes, but the new case numbers don't really tell you what they think do. The # of tests and who gets tested when keeps changing. The new cases raw numbers are at best confusing and in most cases deceptive.

    Since June 10, the test policy has been more or less the same, but how each city or hospital has executed the plan probably didn't stabilize until the last week or so.

    Numbers will probably go down over the next week or so just because elective surgeries have been canceled this week or delayed for several weeks to a month.

    But that decrease still won't tell us anything about how many actual cases there are. It tells us even less about a comparison to actual cases in April-May when testing was way, way lower and who got tested was different.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    The deaths even in the "hotspot" states like TX and GA continue to go down. That is partly because younger people make up more of the cases now. The other part is that a mutation was detected in COVID-19 several weeks ago that is believed to make it less serious/deadly. Viruses routinely mutate in this way in order to have better survival rates of their own. The less an infection affects the host the more viruses survive. Some even become beneficial over time. Not saying COVID-19 is beneficial.
     
  12. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Not being rude here but I laughed at this thinking the implication being they (the virus) could self determine efforts for survival.
     
  13. Monahorns

    Monahorns 5,000+ Posts

    It is a strange thing. Of course viruses don't determine consciously their efforts of survival. But it does happen as I have heard multiple epidemiologists say it.
     
  14. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    We know things in nature evolve to survive without what we know as conscious thought,
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  15. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Watch this short video on how small evolved changes can make a big difference in a simulated world.

     
  16. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    Believe me I understand the science, just thought the ‘implication’ of conscious effort was amusing. Didn’t mean to infer that’s what you or anyone thought.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  17. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    nash
    I knew that
     
  18. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    chart updates

    States reported 697 US coronavirus deaths. Which is the lowest Wednesday total since Mar 25 and down from last week's 721. The 7-day avg fell to 521
    FWIW, in the US avg deaths from all causes are over 7,000 per day
    [​IMG]



    This one is thru July 1 -- the 7-day US avg shows case upturn beginning ~Jun 9.
    The CDC says that the mean time from symptom onset to death is ~14 days.
    So far, there has been no corresponding death curve inflection, despite the sharp increase in cases now over 3 weeks ago

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jul 2, 2020
  19. Clean

    Clean 5,000+ Posts

    Lefty Mayor rescinds this dumb *** order one day after announcing it. Too much blow back from local businesses.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  20. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    Again, I think surgical masks are causing more harm than good. My reasons are as follows:
    1) They give the public a false sense of protection. The mask, even if worn properly, is not protecting you.
    2) A large percentage of people do not wear them properly. They have their nose exposed and sometimes even their mouth exposed.
    3) People are re-using surgical masks over and over. They are designed to be thrown away after each use.
    4) There is a now a public problem with people throwing masks and gloves on the ground. Once worn, the surgical mask is contaminated. That contamination remains after use.
    5) The masks generally leave open space so particles escape if you sneeze or cough. They are also not designed in a way to provide full protection.
    6) I doubt the general public is washing their cloth masks after each use. If you believe they are, I have some property to sell you.

    Politicians are making decisions that are politically expedient, but not effective.
     
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  21. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    There is a lot of “we better do something even if it’s wrong” going around.
     
  22. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  23. OUBubba

    OUBubba 5,000+ Posts

    That syncs up with a podcast I listened to on the Spanish Flu. It was believed to be an outlier in this regard because it did so much of it's growth in the trenches of WW1 and only the sickest patients came off the line and spread that disease out to the world. So, the strongest part of the virus was the one spread throughout the world.
     
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  24. OUBubba

    OUBubba 5,000+ Posts

    My understanding is that the major benefit of the masks are to keep you from spreading it unknowingly as far and wide as you otherwise would. It is not necessarily supposed to be keeping you from getting anything.
     
  25. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
  26. OUBubba

    OUBubba 5,000+ Posts

    Oklahoma is growing like that and protesting was very limited. This is just the result of opening up, Memorial Day, protests, etc. and people not taking it seriously.
     
  27. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    It definitely does not protect you. If properly fitted, worn, cleaned and disposed of after each use, they MAY provide SOME protection for others around you. My point is none of that is done on a large scale. As such, they are causing more problems than they are helping to solve the pandemic. Think of giving everyone on a plane a parachute without any instructions.

    Politicians saying "just wear masks" are perpetuating a problem. They would do much better to overemphasize washing hands and fully explaining how to wear masks. Additionally, focus resources on mass production of N-95's for now and the future pandemics that will inevitably hit.
     
  28. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    California particularly SF has not opened up much and cases are growing, likely due to protests.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  29. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

     
  30. theiioftx

    theiioftx Sponsor Deputy

    I try to remain politically silent when hearing people openly state that the protests did not cause the staff, but I can't. I just laugh uncontrollably.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1

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