2020 Football Season Prediction

Most folks, when making a prediction on a season, more or less guess a won/loss number, rounding up for their favorite teams.

If they do examine it on a per game basis, they just guess for each game as well, with comments like “we win that one, it’s at home”, or my favorite “we lost last year, so the team will want revenge and we win”.

A more thorough analysis is to use historical won/loss trends on a per opponent basis, and assign a risked win percentage for each game. It’s more or less what’s called Decision Risk Analysis, as used in engineering and business, where you assign percentages to each action and come up with an overall project likelihood outcome and a risked cost.

Usually I’d use 4 years of data, to capture a full recruiting cycle, but for Texas, that would include the last year of the spectacle that was the Charlie Strong Experience. Coaching changes are the biggest drivers of changes in win / loss trends, and need to be factored in. So for Texas, just the past 3 years of data will be used.

Data for the B12 is easy to use, as every team plays each other during the season, so there’s 3 years of data. For the out of conference games, it’s more difficult. The 3 years under Herman have had two broad categories of out of conference games – P5 teams on a home/away basis, and non-P5 teams that are hired to play.

Herman has had 9 total out of conference games – 5 to P5 teams (Maryland twice, USC twice, LSU once), and 4 to non P5 teams (San Jose State, Tulane, La Tech, and Rice, all wins).

The record against P5 teams is bad – only one win, against USC in 2018, with home / away losses to Maryland, and losses to USC on the road and LSU at home. This poor record is one of the knocks against Herman, especially in the 2017 and 2018 seasons, both of which stated with losses to Maryland.

Below is a listing of the 2020 opponents (in schedule order), won / loss records for the past 3 years, raw risked win percentage, and then adjusted win percentage. Per game discussion follows the table.

2020 Opponent 2017 2018 B12 CG 2019 Percentage Adjusted %
S Fla Mar - L Mar - L LA Tech - W 20% 0.75
LSU SJS - W Tul - W LSU - L 20% 0.25
UTEP USC - L USC - W Rice - W 100% 1
Kansas State W W W 100% 1
Oklahoma L W L L 25% 0.25
West Virginia W L W 67% 0.67
Texas Tech L W W 67% 0.67
Baylor W W L 67% 0.67
Kansas W W W 100% 1
TCU L W L 33% 0.33
Iowa State W W L 67% 0.67
Oklahoma State L L W 33% 0.33
Total wins 6 9 7
sum 7.59
First up is S Fla, who fired C Strong at the end of last year, and has a new head coach.

As noted, Herman’s record against out of conference P5 teams is 1/5, while for hired chumps it’s 4/4. S Fla is not a P5 team, nor a hired chump, so difficult to categorize. Closer to hired chump that P5 team, and while Charlie may have baked another cake, he also left another team with a losing record. I adjusted this win percentage to 75%. Texas should win this game, but just like the Maryland double losses, it’s not out of the question that they could lose.

LSU – clearly in the P5 bucket, so raw win % is 20%, rounded up to 25%. This game is what I refer to when I say that most folks just guess or pick a winner based on who they root for. Comments for this one will refer to “revenge, payback, the team’s mad”, etc. Based on 5 previous P5 regular season games, Herman’s won just 1, so his history gives a low win percentage.

UTEP – 100%, hired team.

Now onto the B12, where there’s 3 years of data for each team. For these, I’ve gone with the historical win percentage for the risked wins for 2020, as they all seem in line with trends. KSU at 100%, OU at 25% - harsh but Herman has won only 1 of 4. OU will have a new QB, but that’s been the case for the last 3 years, without issues for them.

West VA, Tech, Baylor, ISU all 67% - more than likely to win each game, but not certain based on history. TCU and OSU at 33%, again based on history. The OSU win was the best win of the regular season last year, an indicator of how poor the season was.

All that total up to 7.59 wins. Rounding up, and with the fact that Texas does have a senior QB who’s one of the better ones in college ball, pencil it in at 8 wins.

Hindcasts are useful in seeing how well a method performs as a forecast. Using the same method for the 2019 season, it predicts 8.33 wins.

2019 Opponent 2017 2018 B12CG Percentage Adjusted %
LA Tech Mar - L Mar - L 100% 1
LSU SJS – W Tul - W 25% 0.25
Rice USC - L USC - W 100% 1
Kansas State W W 100% 1
Oklahoma L W L 33% 0.33
West Virginia W L 50% 0.5
Texas Tech L W 50% 0.5
Baylor W W 100% 1
Kansas W W 100% 1
TCU L W 50% 0.5
Iowa State W W 100% 1
Oklahoma State L L 0% 0.25 (never 0% chance for Texas to win)
Total wins 6 9
sum 8.33
Based on the good Sugar Bowl win to cap off the 2018 season, I’d have rounded this up to 9 wins. Instead Texas won only 7 games last year, showing both that the method isn’t unduly pessimistic, and how disappointing a season last year was.

So, based on this method, I predict an 8-4 season, with losses to LSU and OU, a loss from either of TCU or OSU, and then one from the W VA/Tech/Baylor/ISU grouping.

Would be nice if it was higher, but there just isn’t the data to suggest that. Texas regressed in the 3rd year of Herman, not improved, with pitiful losses to Baylor and ISU, and 5 in total. By the end of the year, the DC was fired, as were lots of other coaches. It’s hard to realistically see more than 8 wins on the schedule based on prior results.

 

The tables turned out a mess when I posted this - the spacing for the columns shows up when I'm writing the post, but not when it's posted.

 

Nice analysis. I see 9-3 as the "marked improvement" category for this team, particularly in light of how poorly prepared we were for teams like KU, TCU, and ISU last season. We're basically going from losing games we have no business losing to "losing games we're supposed to lose."

I'm hoping that 8-4 would be because of "marked improvement" from teams that we either lost to last year (TCU) or teams we should have lost to last year (OK State), and not because we've regressed. I get that's not good enough for most fans, but it's also pretty typical of where we've been these past 10 years.

 

I believe we lose 2 regular season games but win RRR, make Big12CG.....undecided on outcome of that game as well as bowl game. I'll say we end 10-3

 

I'm normally a stats guy and the OP was pretty spot on with the thought process. However, there is a huge factor that I have no idea how it will affect the results and that's an entirely new coaching staff further complicated with Covid and social issues.

Overall we have the players with tons of experience to win every game on the schedule...in my opinion. I have no idea what impact if any these new coaches and other issues will have on the outcomes. 8-4 could be reality and so could 10-2, 9-3 or 7-5. It's all just too fluid for me to try to commit to a number this year.

I can say I wouldn't be very happy with 8-4 or less based on the pure talent on the team. In my mind this was supposed to be "The Year" to determine whether Herman was the right fit to move this program back to consistent elite level play and not just the occasional underdog win. This should have been the year where we go out and dominate lesser opponents and win the big games, but now I'm having a hard time believing that will happen.

 

14-1 because we have a good team with depth and experience. Everything comes together.
We beat LSU'S arse and zero U. Sam beats OSU on a last second touchdown.
But we lose in the championship game by a last second field goal of 48 yards.
But a couple or 3 highly rated recruits decommit and go with the good guys!

OR

[Political commentary removed]

 

Anything more than 1 loss and Tom Herman needs to go. He is not the coach for this team. Texas needs to win the Conference and make the playoffs, period.

 

I'll throw this optimistic piece out there....and it is one I agree with for the most part...

Could 2020 be the start of something special for the Longhorns?

 

It’s not the players but the head coach. But I do wish the players have a good season and bring positive news due to their play on the field.

 

I just perceive that TH is one who will learn, grow, adapt. The question is...will there be enough time here.

 

So South FLA and LSU are out, leaving 10 games. Updated as per schedule:

UTEP - 100%
TT - 67%
TCU - 33%
OU - 25%

Bye 100%, though it'll take some concentration to make this happen.

So, that totals up to 2.25 wins after 4 games. 4-0 would be fantastic, and would trend towards a 9-1 year. 3-1 is still good, with a split of TCU / OU. 2-2 is bad, and would trend towards a 6-4 ish season. This 4 game package will set the tone for the year.

Baylor - 67%.
OSU - 33%
WVU - 67%

Another bye week. So by then, on a risk weighted basis, 3.9 wins. If that's the case, and Texas is 4-3 at this point, expect much gnashing of teeth on this board, and predictions of doom for the rest of the season.

Which is pretty easy from here on.

KU - 100%
ISU - 67%
KSU - 100%

So that totals up to 6.6 wins, rounded up to 7. 7-3 for the year, with losses to OU, one from TCU or OSU, and one from Baylor/ISU/Tech/WVU.

OU probably wins all but 1, as usual, some game they stink out when they shouldn't, but no more. So will depend on how OSU does, and that game's outcome on if Texas or OSU has the other B12 Championship game spot.

 

I have no idea who the starters will be. So, I'll go with a 7-3 at worst, 9-1 at best for the regular season.

 

Is your OU prediction based solely on Lincoln Riley, because OU has no proven QB, a RB room that doesn't scare me, a talented but largely unproven WR room, and a talented but largely unproven defense.

 

10-0

But then again I did pick us to 11-1 last regular season.
Hmm I wonder if my reasoning is clouded.
Nah, 10-0 you can bet on it.

 

I would put TCU at 67% and am not buying the "Gary Patterson bounce back theory" despite all of the close games they lost last year.

I would put OU at 50%. Rattler will be very good but will make freshman mistakes; they also have a young group of receivers and an unproven D

Playing at KSU is NEVER 100%

 

I'm not sure you why you only use %'s only in 1/3's other than the OU game. I certainly put the TCU game much higher too. I know Patterson is an overachiever, but I just don't see the talent. I put that at 60%. I also put OSU at 50%. They will be good, but mostly put up big numbers against inferior opponents. And yes KSU is never 100% even with the Wizard gone. Klieman seems to have a bit of Wizard too.

 

All win percentages are based on the last 3 years of games against those teams. Texas has played OU 4 times, with one win, hence the 25% win probability.

Using historical data win percentages leads to slight extremes both ways for a particular game. Yes KSU is not a 100% win chance like UTEP. Even Kansas almost won last year, and it took a long FG at the end for Texas to win. And on the other side, could you call the OSU game a 50% instead of 33? Maybe.

The concept is that these aspects wash themselves out, and you come up with an overall prediction for the season, and which games are the hardest based on previous results. The risked win percentage for the season is 6.6 wins, so even moving a game here or there from 33% to 50% still puts Texas in the 7 win range, based on the the last three years of data.

I see lots of "this team doesn't have talent", "their defense is unproven", etc. for other teams. You can say the same for Texas. The defense was so bad last year the DC had to be jettisoned, and gave up what 49 points to Kansas. There's a new coach coming in, who did a good job at Ohio State, so maybe he turns it around. Maybe the players for whatever reason just aren't that good, and it'll take awhile to either coach them up, or swap them out with younger, better players.

Fact is, with an 8-5 record from last year, and obvious problems with coaching that resulted in widespread firings and replacement, Texas is not coming into this season with a full head of steam and being the team to beat. Best aspect of Texas is a returning excellent QB, and QB play is the most important aspect of modern football.

I'm sticking with 7 wins for now. After OU, if the record is 3-1 then that's a sign 8 wins is more likely. 4-0 after OU trends towards 9-1. As Conan said "We shall see!".

 

Undefeated season in a year with no playoffs.
Damn-it.

 

Who said no playoffs?

 

Yeah, exactly. I don't think there's been a decision made yet, and it doesn't have to be made for several more months. Not having the Pac is no loss as their players watch the game from mom's house anyway.

Only potential difference so far is no Ohio State.

 

Here's something to read while counting down the days to kick-off. Plenty to chew on in this article. (Which isn't to say that I agree with any or all of the views stated therein.)

College Football’s Great Unraveling

Although, I certainly agree with this paragraph -

In nonpandemic times, top-tier college football’s decentralized chaos is actually part of the sport’s charm. The Power 5 is only the tip of an iceberg that includes hundreds of teams organized into multiple conference tiers, as well as those that refuse to align with a conference at all. This general lawlessness gives the sport an idiosyncratic regionalism: College football is barely noticed in some states, and inspires a near-Pentecostal fervor in others. Whereas professional football is shellacked with benign corporate marketability, in college football, a touchdown celebration that mimics a urinating dog can play a role in removing Confederate iconography from Mississippi’s state flag.

 

He did...

 

NCAA president: No fall sports championships, including FCS football, in 2020.

Actually, this doesn't include FBS.
My bad.

 

fetch me a beer and you are forgiven.

 

Im optimistic, as that is easy in August. I think 8-2 is possible, 9-1 is a little more likely. I do not like the OSU match up. OU is always tough, I think we take them this year. We have the QB and the Defense!

 

NCAAs just bitter because they arent calling all the shots and have realized there are limitations to their power.

NCAA: "Well....Well, I'm takin my toys and I'm goin home then."

 

Right now the NCAA is like a fat husband whose super hot wife keeps coming home late from being out with her "friends".

 

7-3 No playoffs,Toilet Bowl

 

Excellent OP. Based on the statistical analysis I understand the conclusion. I look at it differently though:

Who has the most talent?

I believe it would be hard to argue against Texas. In fact, the talent delta is very favorable for us in probably every game. Talent, “reasonably coached,” should win 90% + of the time. Well coached and it’s nearing 100%.

Who has the most experienced team?

Again, Texas stacks up very well, particularly in key positions like QB, OL, DB and Ossai. We should have the best QB in the league. That’s huge.

How does the schedule lay out?

It’s favorable for Texas.

Coaching.

This is the wild card. Even with the additions, based on what I have seen from Herman so far, I don’t have a warm and fuzzy. Based on history one might expect for us to be outcoached, and not just once.

If we don’t win every game I will be disappointed.

If we lose just one I’ll take it, but not be thrilled.

More than one loss would be a failure to me.

Of course, with the Covid caveat that could trump (sorry) everything else.

 

Not winning the B12 Championship would be a failure to me.