This is an optimal batting order construction using FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projection system — which combines projections from ZiPS and Steamer and accounts for projected playing time — here’s what the Astros’ lineup should look like.
Pretty interesting. I would put Brantley in front of Tucker, but other than that, I would be fine with it
1. Alex Bregman, 3B
.278/.389/.521
31 HR
6 SB
13.3 K%
144 wRC+
Few players in baseball possess better on-base skills than Bregman, who is remarkably disciplined at the plate. Of all Astros hitters, Bregman is the most well-rounded and is without any notable flaws. In terms of speed, he is a relatively above-average runner. He has all of the necessary attributes to hit atop a formidable order.
2. Yordan Álvarez, DH
.281/.368/.565
37 HR
4 SB
25.5 K%
144 wRC+
Because Álvarez’s power output is likely to exceed all others’, it would be reasonable to think he shouldn’t be hitting this high. However, Álvarez is projected to be the Astros’ most impactful bat along with Bregman, so placing him in the 2-hole makes more sense.
3. José Altuve, 2B
.283/.350/.464
24 HR
13 SB
15.8 K%
119 wRC+
This is where things get tricky, as determining who hits here and in the next three slots isn’t easily decided, but this is very much a good problem for the Astros. Altuve gets the nod here because, like Bregman, he’s exceptionally well-rounded. Although not as capable at the plate as Bregman, Altuve’s speed is easily plus.
4. Carlos Correa, SS
.270/.349/.482
30 HR
2 SB
22.3 K%
121 wRC+
Correa’s power lands him in the cleanup spot, and his slightly more favorable projections have him here instead of the Astros’ young phenom in right field. Once again, Correa’s health will be in the spotlight in 2021, and could solely determine the outcome of his season.
5. Kyle Tucker, RF
.267/.332/.494
30 HR
23 SB
21.1 K%
118 wRC+
Tucker has a case for batting in one of the two spots ahead, and while his plate discipline has improved, his still-developing on-base skills and his plus power make him ideal for the 5-hole. Again, a lot of this is splitting hairs, and there’s no clearly wrong way to construct this part of the order.
6. Michael Brantley, LF
.291/.352/.457
18 HR
6 SB
12.5 K%
118 wRC+
Houston’s favorite uncle is used to hitting higher than sixth, but the reality is that Brantley’s in a stacked lineup, and one of the Astros’ high-quality bats has to be slotted here. Despite turning 34 in May, Brantley’s still projected to make an impact at the plate in 2021.
7. Yuli Gurriel, 1B
.265/.311/.440
21 HR
3 SB
11.9 K%
99 wRC+
Gurriel’s hand injury might be responsible for his meager 2020 production. How big a role the injury played is unknown. His power outburst in 2019 is likely a thing of the past, but it is fair to wonder if his 2021 projections are somewhat light. Time will tell.
8. Myles Straw, CF
.252/.325/.325
3 HR
31 SB
20.4 K%
80 wRC+
Conventional wisdom puts Straw at the very bottom of an order, as his blazing speed, half-decent on-base skills and complete lack of power make him a perfect fit to hit in front of the best hitters when the lineup turns over. As logical as it seems to do that, the lineup construction model that’s being adhered to says Straw should not be batting behind one of the Astros’ two catchers.
9. Martín Maldonado, C
.209/.288/.357
10 HR
1 SB
28.2 K%
74 wRC+
Maldonado’s absurd 16.4% walk rate in 2020 is all but guaranteed to come crashing down in 2021. He’s a decent source of power, and he may still draw a fair amount of walks going forward, but overall, Maldonado’s strengths have never been at the plate, but behind it.
