Playoff 4

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by Duck Dodgers, Nov 28, 2021.

  1. Duck Dodgers

    Duck Dodgers 1,000+ Posts

    Georgia is in, win or lose in the SEC game - that said, if Bama beats them, it's a poor way to end the season, and doesn't bode well for the playoffs for them.

    Bama, Mich, and Cincy are in with a win I think. The playoff rankings don't come out till Tuesday I think, but in the AP it's Mich 2, Cincy 3, Bama 4, and Ok St 5, then ND. Hard to see either ND or OSU vaulting the 3 above them if those teams win.

    In the on deck circle would be ND and OK State. I think OK State, with a win against a top 10 Baylor team goes instead of ND if one of the 3 above teams lose.

    My thoughts:

    GA
    Cincy
    Hard to pick between Iowa and Mich in the B10 game. Can see it going either way. Call it Mich for now
    I think Bama loses to Ga - they have not played that well this year, and GA seems to be firing on all cylinders.

    So, 1 spot open, and I think OK State takes it, over ND. Which they should, ND had laid egg after egg in the playoffs, and really doesn't deserve much consideration until they go undefeated in a season.
     
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  2. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 2,500+ Posts

    Dont know what else I can really add. Right on, Duck.
    I see UGA handling Bama, UM handling Iowa, OSU handling BU...Houston (a good team) could ruin Cincy....but still lean Cincy there to get that win.
    1. UGA
    2. UM
    3. Okie St.
    4. Cincy
    If Cincy loses will be a little handwringing IF Bama plays UGA close...but think Notre Dame (yawn) would sneak into 4 in that scenario...If they put 2 loss Bama in (doubtful but possible see above) I will hate that and so should everyone. I hope and believe UGA will handle them well enough.
     
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    Last edited: Nov 29, 2021
  3. LHABSOB

    LHABSOB 1,000+ Posts

    I got very familiar with B10 football this year as a Purdue season ticket holder and I can tell you I don't think there is any way Iowa beats Michigan.

    I agree with Rain's final 4 but I will say that Houston could give Cincy a game. Especially if Fickell is distracted with big money offers as coaching dominoes begin to fall.
     
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  4. LonghornCatholic

    LonghornCatholic Deo Gratias

    Bama needs to lose.
     
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  5. Duck Dodgers

    Duck Dodgers 1,000+ Posts

    I would hope a 2 loss, just beaten, no SEC title Alabama would be sent off to some other bowl. Even a 1 loss ND team would deserve it more than them. What's their signature win then - Ole Miss?

    With FLA and USC taken, the LSU job is the big money one still out there. A jump to them by the Cincy coach would put a crimp in their game against Houston. Might be a good game regardless, as UH is 10-1.

    Should be a good Saturday of games.
     
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  6. MajorRules00

    MajorRules00 500+ Posts

    If they win their CCGs, here's my vote:

    1) Georgia
    2) Michigan
    3) Cincinnati
    4) Oklahoma State
     
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  7. Horns11

    Horns11 10,000+ Posts

    It SHOULD be that. My guess is that it'll end up being
    1. UGA
    2. Mich
    3. Notre Dame
    4. Cincy

    I think OK State will need some kind of 4-TD victory over Baylor in order to make the same kind of waves that ND has had this month. The Irish saved their best performances for the end of the year, and while they did lose to Cincy in October, I think every voter is going to want to see them up against Michigan.
     
  8. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    1. Bama (via winner of the $EC CCG)
    2. Michigan
    3. UGA
    4. Cincinnati (to quell a Group of 5 rebellion)

    oSu, if they survive the Brazos criminals, would go if Cincinnati doesn't.

    ND gets enough minus points for being totally outmatched in their last two CFP games not to make the top 4 plus Kelly leaving doesn't help.)
     
  9. El Sapo

    El Sapo Bevo's BFF

    Idk

    I think the SEC championship game is your de facto national championship game right there. I don’t see Michigan beating either one of those teams and Cincinnati doesn’t even belong.

    but instead we will hash this out for a few more weeks.
     
  10. Driver 8

    Driver 8 Amor Fati

    I hope OK State destroys Baylor and gets in
    I think Georgia wins it all, although they can pull a Georgia at any time
     
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  11. n64ra

    n64ra 1,000+ Posts

    I'm pretty confident in UM, UC, and OSU. Bama/UGA has me concerned.

    1. UGA
    2. UM
    3. OSU
    4. UC

    ND first one out.

    or

    1. Bama
    2. UM
    3. UGA
    4. OSU

    UC first one out.
     
  12. Chop

    Chop 10,000+ Posts

    If Cincinnati wins out, they're in. No way they're left out as an undefeated. Okla State, UM, and Bama all have losses. UM's loss was a very tight loss with some home towning by the refs in East Lansing.

    Okla State is on the bubble and could go either way.

    As strange at is sounds, I think the anti-ND bias may be stronger than the pro-ND bias this year.
     
  13. ProdigalHorn

    ProdigalHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Ironically if it ends up being Georgia, Cincy, Michigan and OK State, it might be the "least sexy" playoff lineup we've had, but probably the most interesting. Four schools from four conferences with different(-ish) approaches. And yet once again, you'll have Notre Dame being left out even if they have arguably earned a right to be in there as well.

    That's why I still think the playoffs need to be eight teams.
     
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  14. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 2,500+ Posts

    I'm having a hard time seeing Bama beating UGA. For the record I think UM would be the favorite vs Bama if they played today.
    The real question as raised above is who gets in between Cincy, OSU, and ND if UM and UGA "hold court."
    I still feel its OSU and Cincy if merit. If political or name/cash driven then as someone alluded to above it will be Cincy and ND...which decision makers will explain/defend by saying OSU lost to now unranked iowa st while ND lost to now #3 Cincy.
    Another aspect to consider is will committee penalize a Kelly-less Notre Dame with razor thin margins deciding final spot.
    And CCG victory margins and impressions will weigh heavily obviously.
     
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  15. Horns11

    Horns11 10,000+ Posts

    I think the biggest factor in all of this is whether people will watch the games. I just don't think Oklahoma State will get those eyes compared to Notre Dame. In particular, they're looking at the Michigan/ND rivalry being rekindled in the semifinal.

    Oklahoma State already beat Baylor by 10 at home, so beating them again by the same amount proves basically nothing. They either should have beat ISU when they had the chance, or they're going to need to win by umpteen scores on Saturday.
     
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  16. MajorRules00

    MajorRules00 500+ Posts

    If we don't move to a full-on Power Four system, I agree with expansion. But I would expand to 6 instead of 8.
     
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  17. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 2,500+ Posts

    You are likely correct....and very likely how it goes down. I wouldn't vote that way..especially if OSU looks real good.(though you're right about eyes)
    Part of it for me comes down to the boredom factor. Nationally speaking, perception-wise, you are spot on on ND... But for me..(big yawn)..gag me with a spoon.
    Thet played 1 ranked team...ONE..and lost. I wont even go it was a non P5 school on top of that as I like the "little guys". And their coach is gone and they get crushed every time they go and their uniforms stink, and their mascot isn't even a real thing (is it a Leprechaun??).
    I just think they are boredom "personified." :)
    Let someone else have a try.
     
  18. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 10,000+ Posts

    If O'Brine gets another job before the game, Alabama's chances against UGA significantly improve. I thought that VT was stupid enough to hire him as HC, but they went for a totally unproven commodity, which sinks them lower on the food chain and irrelevance.
     
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  19. n64ra

    n64ra 1,000+ Posts

    You're right about the anti-ND bias. That's because their lone loss is to an undefeated team. Even the CFP brass doesn't have balls big enough to rank ND over UC (now), but they would if UC had a single loss.

    You're wrong about UC being guaranteed a spot if they beat Houston. Their nightmare is Bama just beating UGA. In that case, how does the CFP decided which 1 loss SEC team is ahead of UC? They don't! Instead, they stick both 1 loss SEC teams in the CFP. UM gets a spot, leaving a spot for either one loss Big 12 champion OSU or undefeated UC. The CFP already has three one loss teams ahead of UC, and they hate G5 schools...
     
  20. ProdigalHorn

    ProdigalHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Reason No. (X) why the Big XII deserves everything it gets. The league championship game in a round robin schedule is hands down the dumbest idea ever. It serves no purpose except to make TV money - which is ironic considering that the league members are all tut-tutting Texas and OU for making a decision based on money that actually makes some sense strategically.

    Ultimately the title game is counterproductive, and it won't shock me one bit if Baylor wins the rematch, and then the even more lucrative playoff money goes away.
     
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  21. stanhin

    stanhin 5,000+ Posts

  22. Duck Dodgers

    Duck Dodgers 1,000+ Posts

    And they did!

    Yeah, a CC game when everyone plays everyone else (remember that foolish - One True Champion!!! theme a few years ago - which they then dropped for extras cash from the CC game) is bad idea.
     
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  23. Duck Dodgers

    Duck Dodgers 1,000+ Posts

    So my prediciton of GA over Bama was a dud, much like Georgia has been every time they play Alabama.

    For the final four, my guess is:

    Alabama handles Cincy without much effort. The non P5 teams have risen up in bowl games against P5 teams - but usually it's when the P5 team doesn't really want to be there, against that team. While in a playoff game, it's win and advance.

    I think Mich beats Georgia, who ruined their credibility with their horrid showing in the SEC game.

    Then Bama (again) wins another NC against Mich. What Saban has built there is in the most impressive college sports achievement ever - not even Woodard's UCLA basketball achievement is as impressive as NC after NC, in the modern and more competitive era of college sports.
     
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  24. RainH2burntO

    RainH2burntO 2,500+ Posts

    I wanted UGA vs Okie St..but that was never going to happen anyway, as I believe the committee had Cincy locked into #4.
    Now I'm left wanting UM to advance and upset Bama (assuming Cincy can't)
    And, though I wouldn't bet $1 on it, something tells me this UM team might have a little magic in them.
     
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  25. NRHorn

    NRHorn 2,500+ Posts

    Cincy in is like my corporate HRs mandate to hire people based on everything but experience and job knowledge to fulfill a requirement.

    Thank goodness when UT goes SEC, we get two wins against Fallmount St and Prarie View, like Bama and Aggie does.
     
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  26. Duck Dodgers

    Duck Dodgers 1,000+ Posts

    I'm no fan of the annual media created theme of "this poor team was kept out by meanies", and I do believe in the make it / make it aspect of college football, which is why a 1 loss Bama team is always in contention, as they should be, due to them whipping up on everyone else many times in the playoffs while having a loss early on.

    That said, Cincy, with both a perfect record, a win against ND, winning their conference against a decent UH team, and no other real contenders (who else - the same ND team they beat?) is fine as one of the playoff teams. Will be interesting if they can keep up with Alabama, or be exposed early and often.
     
  27. SabreHorn

    SabreHorn 10,000+ Posts

    You would think that these "city schools" would have learned their lesson from UConn, but go ahead and let them in. Wait until their 15 fans find out the school has to guarantee they can sell 10-15,000 tickets or more, plus occupy, X number of hotel rooms, then like UConn they wind up losing between $3 & 4 million for their "dream season. Will their conference make up the difference? How about the "left behind" city schools or other conferences helping Cincy out with a donation of a few hundred thousand?

    Notice that UConn has NEVER recovered from the "Honor" of going to the Fiesta Bowl.
     
  28. Pomspoms

    Pomspoms 5,000+ Posts

    Alabama. 45
    Cincy. 14
    This game ìs not in doubt even in the 2nd quarter.

    Georgia 35
    Mich. 21

    Alabama 38
    Georgia 31
    Usually its very difficult to beat a good team twice in the same season but the QB play makes the difference.
    What Saban has achieved borders on miraculous.
    (But really its just superior recruiting)
    Saban loses coaches all the time but keeps winning. Why? Due to superior recruiting.
     
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    Last edited: Dec 10, 2021
  29. nashhorn

    nashhorn 5,000+ Posts

    I’m hoping for some Cincy miracle to stay competitive till 4th qtr but don’t believe it will happen.
     
  30. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    There is always hope. Remember aggy beat them.
     
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