2023 Recruiting - Football

Discussion in 'Recruiting' started by Joe Fan, Nov 15, 2018.

  1. dukesteer

    dukesteer 5,000+ Posts

    Call me a cynic of the star rating system. It’s a decent guide, but far from exact. But sure, 5*s “should” be better than 4*s, and 4*s “should” do better that 3*s, and so on.

    Our last two drafted OL — Cosmi & Williams — were both 3 stars*. We’ve had 5 stars flame out so if I believe in the OL coach (as I do), I am very comfortable deferring to his judgment.

    Arguably the best offensive player we have had in the past decade before Bijan and Xavier was D’Onte Foreman, a 2*. So like I said, those rating services are just a guide, and imperfect.

    *247 had Williams as a 3*. Rivals, had him as a 4* I believe. But they may have upgraded it after the fact.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  2. OrangeClad

    OrangeClad 250+ Posts

    Yep. Development of less talented players is usually what happens because there is no way to equal or best the talent level of the competition, otherwise.

    The HS recruiting ratings compared to NFL draft says it all. Sure, development helps, but it helps all players of all ratings and when looking at the analytics, stud players in HS are stud players in college an exponentially higher amount of the time.
     
  3. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 10,000+ Posts

    Rule One in football and Formula One - Speed kills.

    Find a physics text and read about speed and mass. The faster the speed, the less mass to accomplish the same function.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  4. OrangeClad

    OrangeClad 250+ Posts


    No doubt, Duke, nothing is 100%. There are nobodies who turn out fantastic and sure things that flame out. There should always be room for a diamond in the rough.

    I used to believe just like you about the star ratings. I mean, how could some dumbass sportswriters who like getting paid to sit around and BS, watch sports, etc. know anything about, or even as much about talent evaluation and upside potential as coaches, and people actually getting paid to develop?

    Well, I was wrong and I'm sorry to say, so are you. Looking at two decades of data, the analytics are simply overwhelming when comparing HS star rankings to players drafted to the NFL (who obviously excelled at a very high level). The comparison of ratings to the first round of the NFL is equally confirming. The fact is, stud HS 5 star guys were studs in college most of the time and got drafted to NFL most of the time. I don't remember the exact percentages at the moment and there are several studies with slightly differing numbers, but the last 2 decades of 3 star guys got drafted less than 10% of the time vs a 5 star guy that got drafted like 65% of the time. The 4 stars trickle down according to the 3 rating levels of 4 stars, with the lowest 4 star players being drafted about the same as high 3 stars.

    There's just no arguing against the numbers. If you are not recruiting the best you can possibly get, at the highest level and you are depending on development to turn 10% guys into 65% guys, you are just not going to be able to complete day in and day out against those who recruited the more guaranteed players.
     
    • Winner Winner x 1
    • Hot Hot x 1
  5. militaryhorn

    militaryhorn Prediction Contest Manager

    Not arguing here, but how many of those 65% guys stayed more than one contract in the NFL? Just because they got drafted doesn't mean they worked out in the NFL. I stopped watching the pros so I really don't care how they do after college except for a few Longhorns who get drafted...so I haven't watched in about 3 years, lol.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  6. LonghornCatholic

    LonghornCatholic Deo Gratias

     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. dukesteer

    dukesteer 5,000+ Posts

    OC, yours is certainly a very strong argument.

    My buddy made an interesting observation in discussing this topic today. He said that if you bring him too many upper 4 & 5 stars for the OL, because they all can’t play at the same time, it might be difficult to keep them from transferring, particularly now with NIL.

    On the other hand, if you recruit kids this year that you believe have a high ceiling but must be developed, the likelihood of keeping them is greater and they might be ready to make major contributions in two or three years.

    One has to wonder if that is part of Flood’s strategy. He doesn’t need kids to replace Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell or Cam Williams “in 2023.” He needs players to follow them…
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  8. moondog_LFZ

    moondog_LFZ 5,000+ Posts

    And back them up.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  9. cnb

    cnb 5,000+ Posts

    247 expects "one major firework" to pop off today.
     
    • Like Like x 3
  10. cnb

    cnb 5,000+ Posts

    A source told 247 that DE Colton Vasek of Austin Westlake is down to Oregon and Texas.

    They believe Oregon leads, but keep mentioning it'd be tough to see him going that far and ultimately signing there.

     
  11. cnb

    cnb 5,000+ Posts

    Rumors are that its on the defensive side.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  12. dukesteer

    dukesteer 5,000+ Posts

    The guy we REALLY NEED is Anthony Hill.

    I was trying to remember the last time we landed an upper tier linebacker. After Derick Johnson, it might have been Jordan Hicks. But it has been a few and far between. If we get Hill — and that would be a real coup — my guess is that the Aggies will throw a fortune at him this fall.
     
    • Agree Agree x 3
  13. Sangre Naranjada

    Sangre Naranjada 10,000+ Posts

    bishop, I don't get lots of insider info but I agree with you, if what I heard is even mostly true.
     
  14. cnb

    cnb 5,000+ Posts

    S Derek Williams has committed.
     
    • Like Like x 6
    • Hot Hot x 2
    • Winner Winner x 1
  15. HoffHorn

    HoffHorn 500+ Posts

    • Like Like x 6
    • Hot Hot x 2
  16. aUTfan

    aUTfan 2,500+ Posts


    I doubt very seriously that is a part of the calculations. I'm sure hes grabbing the guys he feels like he can win with and size is pretty hard to coach up last time I checked lol.
    I think there are many calculations going into an offer; character, work ethic, potential among others and I'm sure in his mind he thinks that one guy or another has potential to get on the field before another but there are always surprises when they put the pads on and go head to head. Some guys seem to turn something on, others don't.
     
  17. LonghornCatholic

    LonghornCatholic Deo Gratias

     
    • Like Like x 5
    • Hot Hot x 1
  18. LonghornCatholic

    LonghornCatholic Deo Gratias

     
    • Like Like x 3
  19. LonghornCatholic

    LonghornCatholic Deo Gratias

    One more coming? Johntay?
     
    • Like Like x 2
  20. LonghornCatholic

    LonghornCatholic Deo Gratias

     
    • Like Like x 2
    • Winner Winner x 1
  21. cnb

    cnb 5,000+ Posts

    IT saying another should be coming.
     
  22. moondog_LFZ

    moondog_LFZ 5,000+ Posts

    • Like Like x 3
  23. NRHorn

    NRHorn 2,500+ Posts

    The NFL? It’s still active. Who knew?
    And my reasoning isn’t political, when Free Agency exploded and the onslaught of choreographed Broadway shows after every touchdown made me see that the NFL had passed me up.
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
  24. NRHorn

    NRHorn 2,500+ Posts

    Hal-
    I was going to say that. The recruiting services tend to bump a star on a kid when they sign with a premier school.
    They just wait until the fall to do it so they look like the kid improved and suddenly earned the next star to look like it was their expert evaluation.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  25. cnb

    cnb 5,000+ Posts

  26. cnb

    cnb 5,000+ Posts

    Nick Harris@RivalsNick


    If Derek Williams and Arch Manning both end up signing with Texas, it will be the first time since 2012 that a school not named LSU signed two of the top three players from Louisiana, according to @Rivals rankings

    6:11 PM · Jun 27, 2022
     
    • Like Like x 8
  27. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life Good Bye To All The Rest!

    Pretty certain this will also be the first time we've ever signed two 5 star recruits from Louisiana.
     
    • Like Like x 4
    • Agree Agree x 1
  28. cnb

    cnb 5,000+ Posts

    Ketch has put in a cb for Anthony Hill to Tx.
     
    • Hot Hot x 4
    • Like Like x 3
    • WTF? WTF? x 1
  29. cnb

    cnb 5,000+ Posts

    Hamilton has a cb in for Malik Muhammad to Tx
     
    • Like Like x 4
    • WTF? WTF? x 1
    • Hot Hot x 1
  30. cnb

    cnb 5,000+ Posts

    Walton has been Fonged to Tx.
     
    • Like Like x 4
    • Hot Hot x 1

Share This Page