Call me a cynic of the star rating system. It’s a decent guide, but far from exact. But sure, 5*s “should” be better than 4*s, and 4*s “should” do better that 3*s, and so on. Our last two drafted OL — Cosmi & Williams — were both 3 stars*. We’ve had 5 stars flame out so if I believe in the OL coach (as I do), I am very comfortable deferring to his judgment. Arguably the best offensive player we have had in the past decade before Bijan and Xavier was D’Onte Foreman, a 2*. So like I said, those rating services are just a guide, and imperfect. *247 had Williams as a 3*. Rivals, had him as a 4* I believe. But they may have upgraded it after the fact.
Yep. Development of less talented players is usually what happens because there is no way to equal or best the talent level of the competition, otherwise. The HS recruiting ratings compared to NFL draft says it all. Sure, development helps, but it helps all players of all ratings and when looking at the analytics, stud players in HS are stud players in college an exponentially higher amount of the time.
Rule One in football and Formula One - Speed kills. Find a physics text and read about speed and mass. The faster the speed, the less mass to accomplish the same function.
No doubt, Duke, nothing is 100%. There are nobodies who turn out fantastic and sure things that flame out. There should always be room for a diamond in the rough. I used to believe just like you about the star ratings. I mean, how could some dumbass sportswriters who like getting paid to sit around and BS, watch sports, etc. know anything about, or even as much about talent evaluation and upside potential as coaches, and people actually getting paid to develop? Well, I was wrong and I'm sorry to say, so are you. Looking at two decades of data, the analytics are simply overwhelming when comparing HS star rankings to players drafted to the NFL (who obviously excelled at a very high level). The comparison of ratings to the first round of the NFL is equally confirming. The fact is, stud HS 5 star guys were studs in college most of the time and got drafted to NFL most of the time. I don't remember the exact percentages at the moment and there are several studies with slightly differing numbers, but the last 2 decades of 3 star guys got drafted less than 10% of the time vs a 5 star guy that got drafted like 65% of the time. The 4 stars trickle down according to the 3 rating levels of 4 stars, with the lowest 4 star players being drafted about the same as high 3 stars. There's just no arguing against the numbers. If you are not recruiting the best you can possibly get, at the highest level and you are depending on development to turn 10% guys into 65% guys, you are just not going to be able to complete day in and day out against those who recruited the more guaranteed players.
Not arguing here, but how many of those 65% guys stayed more than one contract in the NFL? Just because they got drafted doesn't mean they worked out in the NFL. I stopped watching the pros so I really don't care how they do after college except for a few Longhorns who get drafted...so I haven't watched in about 3 years, lol.
OC, yours is certainly a very strong argument. My buddy made an interesting observation in discussing this topic today. He said that if you bring him too many upper 4 & 5 stars for the OL, because they all can’t play at the same time, it might be difficult to keep them from transferring, particularly now with NIL. On the other hand, if you recruit kids this year that you believe have a high ceiling but must be developed, the likelihood of keeping them is greater and they might be ready to make major contributions in two or three years. One has to wonder if that is part of Flood’s strategy. He doesn’t need kids to replace Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell or Cam Williams “in 2023.” He needs players to follow them…
A source told 247 that DE Colton Vasek of Austin Westlake is down to Oregon and Texas. They believe Oregon leads, but keep mentioning it'd be tough to see him going that far and ultimately signing there.
The guy we REALLY NEED is Anthony Hill. I was trying to remember the last time we landed an upper tier linebacker. After Derick Johnson, it might have been Jordan Hicks. But it has been a few and far between. If we get Hill — and that would be a real coup — my guess is that the Aggies will throw a fortune at him this fall.
Big one: BREAKING: Texas continues to build steam in 2023 recruiting landing commitment of five-star safety Derek Williams. Five-star safety Derek Williams commits to the Texas Longhorns
I doubt very seriously that is a part of the calculations. I'm sure hes grabbing the guys he feels like he can win with and size is pretty hard to coach up last time I checked lol. I think there are many calculations going into an offer; character, work ethic, potential among others and I'm sure in his mind he thinks that one guy or another has potential to get on the field before another but there are always surprises when they put the pads on and go head to head. Some guys seem to turn something on, others don't.
The NFL? It’s still active. Who knew? And my reasoning isn’t political, when Free Agency exploded and the onslaught of choreographed Broadway shows after every touchdown made me see that the NFL had passed me up.
Hal- I was going to say that. The recruiting services tend to bump a star on a kid when they sign with a premier school. They just wait until the fall to do it so they look like the kid improved and suddenly earned the next star to look like it was their expert evaluation.
Billy Walton III@cantstopbill__ ·Please respect my decision. 8:02 PM · Jun 27, 2022 ------------------------------ Here you go.
Nick Harris@RivalsNick If Derek Williams and Arch Manning both end up signing with Texas, it will be the first time since 2012 that a school not named LSU signed two of the top three players from Louisiana, according to @Rivals rankings 6:11 PM · Jun 27, 2022
Pretty certain this will also be the first time we've ever signed two 5 star recruits from Louisiana.