Random Poll Question. Are we a better tackling team this year?

As I mature, I’m less convinced that peoples opinions are worth anything unless they can support with some data. And then I’m not always convinced the data is good. In any event, I’m going to follow up with a little bit of data that you may or may not believe is accurate. Then I’m going to highlight a particular player and use some of that same data to show how impactful he is year over year. So vote or not. Ignore or not. I’m coming back anyway.

 

I’ve got a data point, but not sure you will agree with it.

 

I’m all ears. I think.

 

Data vs your opinion...

 

Yep kinda like the opinion that Watts going out killed our defense in spite of the fact the he gave up completions and first downs twice in ISUs first TD drive. Then gave up a nice gainer on 1st down before going out on a tackle on another nice gain (although not his responsibility). Ignore those data points.

With that said, no idea how it plays out with him for a full game. My opinion is…………that I do have lots of opinions.

 

Analytics have value, but (IMHO) nowhere near as much in football than as in baseball.

There was an OL back in the late Mack Brown era who was perhaps not strong enough. He was consistently getting pushed backwards by more powerful DLs into the backfield, sometimes messing up the running lanes and collapsing the pocket. Yet he "graded out" the highest of all OL almost every game!

Go figure...

Then there's also the "big play artist" who will win games with his big plays, but grades out as a mediocre (or less) player.

This ain't baseball.

 

Here's a Hall of Famer who most likely looked like a journeyman 2nd teamer on the stats sheet:



Data says: "Cut him".

 

Another Hall of Famer with very mediocre stats:


(caption this one...)

 

I don’t know who’s on the left, but I agree with the one the right. Hall of famer no matter the stats. She comes off as an Angel.

 

And nowhere did I reference context. It’s data and opinions. No context allowed. Context is for thinkers. Philosophizers.

 

Alrighty people. Are we better? A very strong majority says yes we are better tacklers in 2021 than 2022.

The numbers agree. We are missing 13% of tackles in 2022 as compared to 15.4% in 2021. So that’s the data from PFF. That’s a somewhat modest improvement I’d say.

To interject a little “feel” to this, it “feels” as though we are populating the ball as Sark likes to say. When you do that, it gives the sense that you are missing fewer tackles because those misses result in less significant plays because your teammate or two shows up quickly.

So who has cleaned up their game? First and foremost, it’s Jerrin. His miss rate has fallen from 26% to 6%. His increase in tackles per play is directly attributable to cleaning this up over the past year. DMO is next up cutting his miss rate from 20% to 10%. However he is making fewer tackles per play than last year. DTD has missed only 5% of the time.

On flip side, Cook has missed 4 times as many tackles this year (only 2 last year so what do you expect).

Gone off last year’s team are Josh T and Thompson missing at a 25% clip.

Ultimately I would agree we’re better, but there are possible reasons beyond just being better. Like it’s a lot easier to tackle some OU RBs out of their pathetic effort this year versus the spread em out version of last year. Generally speaking I’d say the RB talent we’ve faced to date is less than what we played last year too. That wasn’t Breece Hall out there Saturday. Also We are running heavier boxes too as Thompson and Ovie are crowding the box more than last year. The LBers are playing outside a bit more too.

 

There are far too many factors at play on any given snap to give a definitive "yes" or "no."

I think the big picture scheming (probably with some of Patterson's help and probably with PK scaling down some zone responsibilities) has our 11 players in a better position to make the tackle for sure. Because we don't notice as many whiffs, we're a better tackling team.

Guys like Foster last season would be close to where they were supposed to be, maybe a yard or two off of a better line to the ballcarrier, and it would "seem" like a bad tackle when in reality it was just mental.

 

Going with some longer time frames:

1. Are we tackling better now than in the Herman era?
2. Are we tackling better now than in the Strong era?

Boy, those sure are tough ones....

The answer to both, an emphatic

YES

 

We'll see our tackling skills vs a good dual-threat QB on Saturday. Sanders.

 

I'm not noticing nearly as many arm-tackles and broken tackles against us as in the previous two regimes.

 

All of her basic stats were exceptional imo! Unsure of her advanced stats

 

Honestly I cannot remember that well. Each of those regimes had a solid defense for a year when they had experienced players. They then fell off when some of that experience graduated and was replaced with less mature guys. We’d go from good upperclass dudes to too many lowerclassmen. We’re building that depth. Freshman next to Freshman is asking for trouble. And we have an experienced defense now too. Players with less experience or even less experience in a particular scheme tend to be a tick slower which is significant when tackling because they’re having to arm tackle more.

 

I personally believe many players around the league are at times shy of getting a targeting or related penalty and have to make untimely and less than optimal adjustments. You can see this clearly at times.

 

Also in play is the age old dichotomy of going for the big highlight-real hit vs. breaking down/wrapping up/just making the tackle.

 

my eyes say that our DBs have allowed catches, and the DL alignment had LBs outside so there have been a surprising amount of holes inside...but that I have not yelled at my TV as much as I usually do about tackling.

 

i’d say, better but still not great

 

Correct AND I am noticing 2 3 4 and even 5 guys on the ball/

 

If the stats say we are missing tackles at close to the same rate as last year, then I can only assume the improvement everybody can sense must lie with Sark's notion of "populating the ball".

First guy misses, technically, but this year he has three buddies nearby to quickly and efficiently clean up the mess. Whereas last year that missed tackle was more likely to lead to a significant gain due to our inability to consistently populate the ball.

In such a scenario, missed tackle percentage remains roughly equal, but fans who don't look at analytics perceive that tackling has improved.

 

This gang tackling “populating the ball” idea goes all the way back to Royal and his famous tackling video. Maybe it goes back even further. It’s taught by just about every high school coach in the state. Some of it is simply motivation, hustle, and “want to.”

 

Agree 100%. The concept isn't new at all. Getting a team to do it must be fairly challenging though, because God knows we have been wildly inconsistent at it for more than a decade. Some years better than others of course.

 

I have no idea what a reasonable missed percentage is, but I recall reading about DTD upon his transfer. Someone had said there were only 2 guys in FCS with X number of tackles and a missed rate of 8% or lower. I’ve probably butchered the basics around it except the 8%. I’d think 13% is reasonable.

I am confident in saying we are pursuing/populating the ball better. There’s an element of prove that, which I have no data to support. That “feeling” is coming from watching all games since beginning 2021 multiple times. I’ll also say we’re aligned more to populate the ball in the run game. We have more 4 man fronts in favor of kicking our LBers outside to help with quick pitch/options to the outside. The LBers are kept cleaner because the DL is creating more havoc so the front 5 have to ensure they are blocked first. In the pass game, our pass rush has been better so more pressure equals less time to throw equals less separation created in the pass game.

The Dline is way more impactful, but the DBs when presented opportunities are finishing the job but also nearer the LOS. The Thompson brothers and Thornton missing 25% of their tackles last year was a killer. Thornton played a ton. Jerrin was #3 in number of plays last year. Thornton #7.

Jerrin Thompson is under appreciated in my opinion this year. He’s already equaled his tackles from last year. His run D grade is 87. That is 9th in the country. Part of that equation is that he occasionally fills a gap and forces the ball carrier into another gap, which is occupied by another. Overall he 157 so his strength is the run.

 

Well the rushing defense improvement should be worth something. Worst in school history last year to near top of the league. I see PFF has us slightly better, but my eye test sees a lot more burnt orange around the ball even if first guy misses. I’ll have to try and find it but I have to think our yardage given up after first contact is much lower this year.

 

I need to see my name in the headlines so I’m bumping this one.

Thru the TCU game we are missing 15.04% of our tackles. KState we were around 23%. OSU around 21%. Slightly under 14% versus TCU.

Last year, we missed 15.4%.

So it’s a battle to the end.

 

Interesting stats YW, but I would suspect the yards gained after that missed tackle were much greater in previous years. While one breakaway run is seemingly a given they don’t seem happen as numerous as in previous years.

 

I have little doubt that you are correct Nash.

We have numerous players with a much improved average depth of tackle. I think Ovie is down from around 5 to 2. DMO down from 3.8 to 2.4. Jerrin Thompson down almost 3 yards. Jamison has fewer tackles but his is down from 12 to 5. The list goes on and on.