The financial world is in its worst shape since the the great depression yet most posts are about Palin having a zit on her nose or Obama a hangnail. Whoever becomes president will hardly make any difference, yet the faith of the financial markets will touch us all. Just today: Lehman brothers going bankrupt? Washington Mutual going bankrupt? AIG going bankrupt? GM and Ford going bankrupt if no government bailout? Some real food for thought I would say.
The financial markets will "consolidate". GM and Ford will merge and roll out hydrocarbon using fuel cell vehicles. Capitalism is a pretty much fire and forget sort of thing, and it works better without input from government.
GM and Ford will merge and roll out hydrocarbon using fuel cell vehicles _________ I think it will be highly unlikely GM and Ford will merge. Anti trust forming alone will be an enormous barrier. The problem is that they can't go to the credit markets and therefore need federal assistance in the form of loan guarantees for future product devellopment. If they don't get them they may just go bankrupt. Millions of people would be thrown out of work and GDP could suffer 5%. There are also national security issues. They make a lot of military gear so if they are history, should we outsource our tanks to be made in China?? Is this again becoming a question of "too big too fail"?? The other side of the coin is that they mucked up for years (in many ways) and deserve to go down. If not, the question of moral hazard crops up again. It is a difficult question but in a election year I think all sides will cave (not in the least to pander votes).
Thank you, Leffe, for trying to steer at least one conversation toward a real issue. I have another one: transportation infrastructure. The American Society of Civil Engineers (hardly a partisan group) says we have $1.6 trillion to spend in order to just get our existing infrastructure (road, rails, ports, etc) up to decent standards, nevermind any new construction. Yet the next transportation bill will likely only come in at $350 billion for the next 5 - 6 years. Consequently, I have serious concerns about America's ability to remain competitive in the global marketplace as we rely more and more on outdated facilities, infrastructure, and systems. Why aren't we talking about these things, instead of pigs and lipstick? 3rd
Wait...a flag pin, a hand over the heart, what someone's wife said, or daughter did aren't important issues? Finally someone with substantive issues...good post!
You can see from various polls that the public at large agrees that Congress is failing the country. That being said, they love their incumbent legislators that dole out the pork. I don't see that big a difference between the two major parties at this point. They both get quickly corrupted by power as soon as they control the levers of power. They become much more obsessed with maintaining power rather than responsibly governing the country. You have to be willing to forgo party affiliations and vote out anybody that does not agree with whatever principles you hold dear. Both presidential candidates are shuffling around the need for changes to Social Security. They are flat out silent on the much larger fiscal black hole that is Medicare. Maybe the press ought to actually ask them some questions about how they will make those programs solvent in the long term.
^ l l True, but harder to do than it sounds. We were pretty much stuck with a 2 party system, and it was more firmly entrenched once Ross Perot backed out for "family reasons" when he was leading both Bush and Clinton. After that election it was pretty much determined that he split more of the GOP vote than Dem vote and was the primary reason Clinton won. I have some Libertarian leanings but will never vote that way because it keeps me from fending off the worse of 2 evils.
Getting rid of poorly managed businesses is a good thing in the long run. You think someone else won't sell insurance to AIG's customers? Or that all the other banks won't snap up Washington Mutual's customers? Maybe this will push Ford and GM to make cars people want to buy and make their labor union partners lose their sense of entitlement.
mop, No, very early on he actually had a lead and a whole lot of momentum. His "grass roots" effort had everybody really puzzled at first, and the numbers throughout the country were almost in thirds. Then he came out one day and said he was backing out. About two days later he came back and said "not really, I guess I'll run" and many people stopped taking him as seriously and he lost about 2/3rds of his support. Time has passed and I don't remember all of the numbers and exact number of days before the election the waffle took place, but it did and it had a HUGE effect on the outcome. Here. Found this.
3rd I completely agree with your post. I was in Europe not to long ago and took the TGV from Amsterdam to Paris and was very impressed, so smooth and fast. Amtrack seems third world in comparison. The air traffic control system is another example of being on the brink of chaos. I think a lot of Americans don't know (or care maybe) that the world is passing them by. Most of them want a cookie, nobody says "hey, how do we pay for that???" As was pointed out by others, Americans have themselves to blame, they are only interested in me, me, me. A presidential candidate that would demand sacrifice would simply never get elected, so the charades go on on both sides.
Can anyone explain to me how electing new people into Congress is going to change the fundamental system of lobbyists and largesse? And corruption?? Without legal reforms, you've got the same old coat-tail riding ambitious people, regardless of whether they're good-intentioned or not. You have to play the game to get anything you want. For instance, John Cornyn was a new guy in the Senate but what a total lackey for Bush he is. This whole anti-elitist anti-Washington sentiment is complete ******** without concrete changes in campaign and lobbying practices. It will continue, and none of them are immune even if they want to be.
Getting rid of poorly managed businesses is a good thing in the long run. __________________ Battleship, I agree with you 100% in "normal" times. However we are in extraordinary times regarding the financial system. I think nobody really knows what the fallout of all these potential failing companies would be in terms of counterparty issues. Who would be next, Merrill Lynch??? As the dominos fall, the very essence of the American financial system could be destroyed leading to mass unemployment perhaps even social instability. The government already set a precedent with BS and F&F, why not Lehman? FDIC is a form of backstopping but there are very few people that would like to see it abolished. Germany is urging the US government to find a solution before the Asian markets open. Doing nothing could be catastrophic worldwide. WAMU has a nice deposit base but who would pick up the toxic waste? AIG can hopefully sell assets to shore up their capital ratio but nobody is really sure what is under the covers. Confidence in the system needs to be restored and the only entity that can do that is the US goverment. Later things can be sliced and diced and re-privatized.
I have not had any confidence in the US government for a long time and don't have any now. And if you look at the people lining up to replace the people in it now there is no reason to feel any real confidence there. Compare the leadership positions in the congress now with what you had fifty years ago and tell me there has not been an incredible drop in level of talent, knowledge and concern for the public. One final thought: this is the biggest and richest and most powerful government in history. There has never been anything quite like it. There is no guideline for how to run something this big unless you count the USSR and we know how that worked out. IT may be that this country and government are too big to be run intelligently even if you had the "right" people in office.
Clearly the issues are being ignored. McCain is clearly the best pick in regards to the issues, but the media and fringe are addicted to smearing Palin and treating Obama like a trendy brand. Very frustrating.
Thanks Leffe for this thread. A real issue at this point is if we cannot trust government to regulate our economy what must we start doing as individuals to prepare for an Argentina style collapse? What do you buy that people will want to trade for? Silver? Copper? Gold? Concrete? Cattle? What can we organize outside the government that will peacefully bring pressure on the government to become responsible again?
Mr Wizard, Just out of curiousity, what is McCain's solution to the problem I posed? What is Obama's solution? Are either of them even talking about it? Please, tell me why you think McCain will be able to handle this looming problem. I, and many others, are looking for substance, not platitudes. Thanks, 3rd
