Where are all the Tropical storms?

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by mop, Aug 3, 2009.

  1. stabone

    stabone 500+ Posts

  2. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    GT...you have never been great at keeping track, but let me try to help as much as i am able.

    over the past 150 years we have definitely seen some warming. so we have experienced global warming for sure.

    in the past 10 years that warming has halted (maybe temporarily and 10 years is not statistically significant enough to declare too much from it) and perhaps even gone backwards the past 7 years.

    it is not clear at all that mankind should be blamed for any of the warming. we have been coming out of an ice age for centuries so warming is expected to be sure. however, it is possible that mankind is partly to blame. no one (not even you) has wagered a guess on how much man is to blame or how much we could do to affect it anyways.

    so in the mean time, i am suggesting that we should not foolishly spend trillions of dollars addressing a problem about which we are not sure of the causes or the ratios of the culprits (natural versus manmade). in stead we should focus on things that are clearly bad (unlike plant air) and are harming our clean water etc.

    hope this helps.

    oh....and i never said God would make everything ok. that is just more of your bigotry leaking out in every post. good luck with that. i would suggest a good therapist to help you forgive whatever Christian hurt you growing up. i have some great suggestions if you want them.
     
  3. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    great point J D, i think i just read something too quickly and misunderstood. sorry!

    thanks for the correction.
     
  4. Texoz

    Texoz 1,000+ Posts

    mop, remind me again. why do you not agree with NOAA that 2005 was the warmest year on record? NOAA seems to think so.
    The Link

    By the way, this year could be warmer than 2005 (and 1998) if El Nino is strong enough. This year was already tracking warmer each month prior to the emergence of El Nino.

    Note: not warmer than 2005 or 1998, but over the last few months the global land/sea temps have been climbing and as of Jan-June 2009 range, 2009 would be ranked tied for 4th (0.99 F) warmest. January 2009 was ranked as 31st warmest.
     
  5. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    mostly because they were the only ones to believe that. UAH, RSS and HadCrut all disagree. this is more of Nasa's overstating due to Hansen's influence if you ask me.

    regardless, no one else seems to believe that except for the larger seller of overstatements on this issue that we have (remember Hansen is Gore's court prophet).

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Texoz

    Texoz 1,000+ Posts

    Interesting. We just had the 2nd hottest July on record according to NASAThe Link AND the UAH reading.The Link
    You'll have to look at Dr. Spencer's data set to verify that this July was 2nd warmest recorded. He doesn't seem to want to mention it on his blog.

    So, maybe the climate is cooperating?

    If this year or 2010 ends up hotter than 1998 (per your favorite parameters), then what?
     
  7. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    Texoz....you are trying to play both sides of the argument. does one month matter or not? how about one year?

    regardless....to answer your questions i don't think there is any chance of this year passing up 1998. There are too many cold months already in the books for the average to come out higher than 1998.

    But hypothetically, if this year ended up warmer than 1998, i would find that interesting to be sure and evidence that the earth is still warming, but not a slam shut case by any means.

    at any rate....we know the earth has warmed and this would not be terribly surprising. we still would not have any idea about how much, if any, man has contributed to this.

    would you care to give an estimate of man's contribution in terms of percentage? how much of the warming that we have experienced is from mankind?
     
  8. Texoz

    Texoz 1,000+ Posts

    In reply to:


     
  9. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts


     
  10. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    In reply to:

     
  11. GT WT

    GT WT 1,000+ Posts

    MOP, this group is almost as impressive as Senator Inhofe's group of 650 'scientists'. I didn't have time to look up all 67 names on the 'expert' list but I did look up the first 10. These included 2 politicians, one highschool teacher, an economist, and 4 engineers. There is one ecologist and one scientist - Dr. Borchard - who has actually published on climate change.

    Reads like a list of creation 'scientists'.


    Dr.Ing. Hans-Günter Appel - Material Engineer

    Dr. Dorota Appenzeller - is an economist
    (http://katek.ae.poznan.pl/index.php?c=publikacje)

    Helgo Bran Former - politician

    Ernst Georg Beck - Highschool teacher

    Dr. Hans Karl Barth - Ecologist

    Dr. Wolfgang Bachmann - mechanical engineer

    Dr. Horst Borchard - A geographer & (unusual in this group) posessing expertise in a field relevant to climate change. He published a paper linking sun-spots to global warming - see, figure 1 in:The Link

    Dr. Gerhard Buse - A biochemist who apeears to have worked primarily on bacteria (The Link )

    Dr. Ivo Busko - a structural engineer

    Dr. Gottfried Class - An engineer with expertise in nuclear safety

    [​IMG]
     
  12. Texoz

    Texoz 1,000+ Posts

    In reply to:


     
  13. Hayden_Horn

    Hayden_Horn 1,000+ Posts

    mop, why do you love to whistle past the graveyard?
     
  14. hornpharmd

    hornpharmd 5,000+ Posts

  15. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts


     
  16. zork

    zork 2,500+ Posts

    That is clearly a biased representation of the last 15 or so years of storms. [​IMG]
     
  17. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    i am going to assume sarcasm?

    i mean, it is just the last 15 years so in that sense it is biased, but it is interesting that this was the latest year in 15 years.

    having said that, i hope we have TONS of tropical storms and get tons of rain as a result.
     
  18. zork

    zork 2,500+ Posts

    shoulda put a smiliey on it mop. [​IMG]
     
  19. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    ah..ok. feeling sensitive. i take a lot of abuse for these threads so i am sure i get overly sensitive.

    hey, the only year in the last 15 years that even came close to having a storm as late as this one was 2004 and it still came early. that simple fact got lost in all of this.....but still, i did get my overall facts wrong in thinking this was THE latest year....just the latest in a few decades i guess.
     
  20. HornBud

    HornBud 2,500+ Posts

    I just checked my iGoogle page equipped with hurricane tracker, and I counted 20 systems in the Atlantic being watched, one tropical wave, and one tropical depression.

    I don't know how normal this is, but it's kind of freaky seeing all of the hurricane symbols on the map.

    Also, is there an El Nino somewhere that might be effecting the count?
     
  21. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    we are in an el nino.....

    let's hope we get a bunch of storms that never reach shore because we need the rain!
     
  22. HornBud

    HornBud 2,500+ Posts

    A bunch of storms that get hit hard by cool El Nino winds in the Gulf would be good. I'd be just fine with a few Cat1 and 2 storms hitting the shores and driving rain northward.
     
  23. mop

    mop 2,500+ Posts

    so hurricane activity is still very low....interesting post by Anthony Watts (I think he wrote it) over at Wattsupwiththat.com

    hurricane activity dropping lower
     

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