Short answer is.... NOT LIKELY. Like 2% likely. I've run all the scenarios possible.. EVEN IF Florida loses to Florida International and wins out... Florida will be ahead of TCU in the comps EVEN IF Bama loses to Chattanooga and then wins out... Bama will be ahead of TCU in the comps. The question would then be how bad the humans would hurt the two teams for such a bad loss. So i'm saying its slightly possible IF that happens for a TCU v TX game. But let's be real. Florida is NOT losing to FIU and Bama is NOT losing to Chattanooga. Here's what TCU would need. #1. Cincy losing. Cincy is already ahead of TCU in the comps and behind SEC teams. Cincy losing would help TCU but not likely help the 1-loss SEC champ. #2. SEC champ would have to have at least one loss. So Bama would need to lose to Auburn and then win out. OR Florida lose to Florida State and then win out. #3. Gtech needs to lose. Gtech beating Clemson would give them enough strength and an extra game on TCU. From most scenarios I've run a 1-loss Gtech would finish ahead of TCU in the comps and be virtually tied w/ an unbeaten Cincy. #4. Impress the humans! TCU beats Wyoming by 35-21 and that won't do it. They need to annihilate the rest of their competition and somehow hope they'd be a UNANIMOUS #2 behind #1 Texas. If they are not dominant then a TCU that splits votes with the SEC champ won't get it done. If all 4 of those things happen.... and one or two comps break the right way.... its TCU v Texas... MAYBE Let me show you the numbers. If bama loses to auburn then wins out. Cincy & Gtech lose. Comps will likely be #1. Texas. #2.Bama. #3 Florida. #4 TCU. If florida loses to florida state but then wins out.... just reverse #2 & #3 above. These next few weeks are gonna KILL TCU in the comps. They'll still be ahead of an unbeaten Boise... but not by much in the comps. So lets assume that the human polls go unanimously. Texas #1. TCU #2 & SEC champ #3. who else would be #3??? remember Cincy & Gtech had to lose for this scenario. So Texas is in being #1 in everything. TCU is .96 + .96 + .88 = /3 = .933333 SEC champ with one loss is - .92 + 92 + .96 = / 3 = .933333 So even given the best possible scenario out there. Its not a given TCU would be ahead. And certainly given the SEC homerism out there, its not likely TCU gets 100% of the second place vote. SEC champ with one loss likely gets SOME of those votes. What TCU REALLY needs is for BOTH Florida & Bama to stumble before the play the SEC champ game. They need that SEC loser to have 2 losses to have a more realistic shot. But that's just not realistic, is it??
I honestly think TCU needs both Florida and Alabama to lose for that to happen. If one of them loses but then wins the SEC title game, I think that team would eventually move back up to #2. Everyone wants to talk about TCU deserving to play for the title because it's something controversial in a very uncontroversial season (other than officiating disasters), but no one actually wants to see it. People want Texas vs. the SEC champ. Period.
There's no realistic scenario that I can think of, BUT there is a scenario in which TCU can get to the championship game---and it's one that gives me nightmares, which is yet another reason why we must maintain maximum FOCUSNESS thru December 5th!
Wouldn't any loss by Bama and Florida before the SEC champ game drop them too far in the human polls to recover in time or to make up the difference in the comps? Seems only right that TCU would get in if Bama lost to Auburn and then beat Florida or Fl losing to FSU then beating Bama. I'm pulling for TCU, so I'm a dreamer.
It's really not that hard. If Florida would lose to Florida State, then win the SEC, or Bama lose to Auburn, then win the SEC with Pitt beating Cincy, it's Texas vs. TCU.
For those of you too young to know: In the days of the SWC that Texas dominated, the TCU game was always played on the opening day of deer season so no one would feel guilt in missing the game because everyone knew the outcome. Nothing has changed , TCU is a talking point for those who have nothing to contribute, losers. No WAC team is ever going to play in a National Championship game. Good grief!
I'm rooting for TCU to lose. I don't really care for upstarts who run their mouths. We would kick their tails, always have, always will.
hornyhoosier, you should try actually watching this year's TCU team play. These aren't LT's Horned Frogs. They aren't a upstart and would give Texas all they could handle.
I think that it would be a good game for a half and then Texas' depth would begin to wear TCU out and the Longhorns would pull away in the fourth quarter.
Of course there is a scenario for such a thing to happen. The honest answer is that it is not very likely so don't worry about it.
Let's frame this question a little bit better. What has a higher chance of occurrence: Option 1) Charlie Weis fitting in size 36 pants. or Option 2) TCU in the NC.
I think TCU is in if Cincy loses and one of UF/Bama loses in the regular season but wins the CCG. Cincy is probably 50/50 to win @Pit. It is also not entirely far fetched that UF/Bama lose to FSU or Auburn, just as it is not far fetched Texas loses to A&M or NU (I can't see KSU beating Texas though--I have a slight more concern of desperate KU squad with 3 really good offensive players). FSU has shown the ability to score points, as has Auburn. Now these are not likely to happen because Bama, UF and Texas are very good to great teams with great defenses. But it is always possible they have an awful offensive performance--bad weather would help, and get bit--the opponents I mentioned have talent and have had some good days scoring. I do think if the winner of the SEC champ has one loss they WILL be behind an undefeated Cincy, and PROBABLY an undefeated TCU. Cincy IMO will be ahead of TCU if they win out--they will be ahead in all computers--in fact Cincy will be a consensus computer #1 in this scenario (Texas would be #2 in most computers--Texas is behind Cincy in the computers right now and doesn't have a Pitt type team possible), and probably close enough if not ahead in voters vs TCU coming off a top 10 Pitt win. I also think UF is in slightly better position to recover from a loss than Bama simply because they are the defending champ and been the regular #1 for voters this year. I am not sure the voters will keep Bama close enough to TCU if they lose, UF is a lot stickier. Probably a really close CCG would help--say Bama loses @auburn but nips Florida in a squeeker and thus the humans and computers are split on who among those 2 are more deserving.
The odds of TCU playing for the title are actually about 30%. There are a number of scenarios that would make it happen, but the best chance is for Texas to lose. Right now the odds of that are about 38% if you factor Nebraska as the Big-12 N. Rep. Here are the odds: 1. Texas lose one game - 38% and Cinci lose a game (~50%) (or) 2. Florida and Bama both have one loss (10%) and Cinci lose (50%)
If Texas and TCU are undefeated and if Alabama and Florida have lost, I think it comes down to the polls (humans), and I don't think TCU survives.
