Margin of victory is needed BADLY

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by OrangeChipper, Nov 23, 2009.

  1. OrangeChipper

    OrangeChipper 1,000+ Posts

    First off, the powers that be didn't want to include MOV into the computers because it would encourage bad sportsmanship. I have two rebuttals.
    A. Put a cap on it. Make it 21 or 28 pts. That way a 28-0 victory counts that same as a 42-10 victory. This solves the running up the score aspect.
    B. It didn't fix it AT ALL to begin with. Teams STILL run up the score because 2/3 of the formula...the voters... are very much influenced by blowouts. Look no further than OU last year.

    Their excuse to not have MOV holds no water...But let me make the positive case for MOV.

    #1. Distinguishing between wins. Example A: Texas dominated UTEP and won 64-7. Oregon State barely escaped against UNLV 23-21. Guess who gets more credit?? Oregon State does. Example B: Oregon beats Utah 31-24. TCU beats Utah 55-28. They get equal credit when in reality TCU should get more.

    #2. Distinguishing between losses. OU is punished more for losing by 1 pt to BYU than by 28 to Texas Tech. Not right! Oregon beats Purdue 38-36. Shouldn't Purdue get a modicum of credit for being so close?? Extrapolate this and you see why most of the Comps have the Big 12 ranked 5th or 6th.

    Why?
    1. NEBRASKA 15, VA TECH 16
    2. OKLAHOMA 20, MIAMI FL 21
    3. OKLAHOMA 13, BRIGHAM YOUNG 14
    4. TEXAS TECH 28, HOUSTON 29
    5. KANSAS ST 15, LA LAFAYETTE 17
    The Big XII lost 5 OOC games by a total of 6 pts.
    Compare that to the PAC 10 who most comps have as the best or 3rd best conference.
    1. UCLA 19, TENNESSEE 15
    2. SOUTHERN CAL 18, OHIO STATE 15
    3. OREGON 38, PURDUE 36
    4. OREGON ST 23, UNLV 21
    5. WASHINGTON ST 30, SMU 27
    The Pac 10 won 5 OOC games by a total of 14 pts. Am i arguing that the Big XII is better than the Pac 10 this year? Heavens no!! A loss is still a loss. A win is still a win. I'm just saying that the distance between the 2 conferences is not as big as it appears now.

    #3. Context. A computer has disadvantages to the humans. They cannot factor who is injured. They cannot factor a bad call by a ref. They cannot factor that Tennessee missed 3 fg's and would've won otherwise in a 12-10 game versus Alabama. They cannot factor a dominant performance even though the score was just 21-10. The comps are limited enough as it is. Every data point you give them, the better analyzing they can do!

    #4. Skewed results. The results right now in some of the comps speaks for itself. These limited computers have 10-1 Villanova ranked 30th and 9-2 Houston ranked 33rd. Yes that's the 1AA Villanova. There is a simple reason why earlier in the year the comps had Iowa #1 while the voters had them no higher than 7th. Why? WE SAW THE GAMES. We noticed their Margin of Victory. We saw that Iowa wasn't as good as their record showed. Some of the comps have 8-3 Nebraska ranked #45 while they have 6-5 UCLA at #41. Last week 3-7 Washington was ranked ahead of 7-3 Nebraska.

    Conclusion. Put margin of victory back into the comps. Put a cap on it of 24 or so points. Let the comps do their jobs. Don't handcuff them anymore.
    Here's what it MIGHT look like if we did use MOV. (note: these have an assortment of comps that do use and some that do NOT use MOV)
    The Link
     
  2. HornFinc

    HornFinc 250+ Posts

    I know I'm in the small minority, but the way I feel about this game, I just want to WIN! Maybe it's a touch of indigestion or IBS, but I just don't feel as confident as a lot of you on this board. Someone please, give me something to make me feel better about this (already taking Metamucil, so we're covered there)...
     
  3. TEXnSEATTLE

    TEXnSEATTLE 1,000+ Posts

    just WIN...we're IN!!!

    [​IMG]
     
  4. The Horn Identity

    The Horn Identity 500+ Posts

    OrangeChipper - Agree with you 100%.

    As a matter of fact, the IPS is all about MOV. It only cares about how much you score - relative to your competition.

    Actually, I guess there is something to be said about who actually wins the game. But, completely ignoring the MOV is ludicrous.
     
  5. texas_ex2000

    texas_ex2000 2,500+ Posts

    Chipper,

    Voters consider everything you just mentioned when they fill out their ballot. You'd be double counting margin of victory. The computers are suppose to be crunchning more esoteric statistics.
     
  6. Zuerst

    Zuerst 250+ Posts

    lol it's like putting a bandaid on a ruptured aorta...

    this bs bcs needs to go
     
  7. Unques prist

    Unques prist 250+ Posts

    Win the next 2 Texas is in. Nuff said. No way an undefeated Texas gets jumped by TCU/Cinn/Boise St. If that happened the BCS could kiss its cartel good bye.
     
  8. kgp

    kgp 1,000+ Posts

    Zuerst I agree in principle if not in degree. It may be more like a bandaid on a compound fracture than an aorta in my estimation, but that may just be my bias. Adding some recognition of the difference between a missed field goal and an epic tail-whipping won't fix the computers, but it will make them less likely to ruin a MNC game line-up to some degree.
     
  9. Das Mook

    Das Mook 250+ Posts

    Sagarin admits in his poll that the one the BCS uses is not the most valid poll in his opinion.
     
  10. rickysrun

    rickysrun 2,500+ Posts

    I thought in the past that one of the "tweeks" to the BCS was removing MOV, or capping it? Am I wrong on this?
     

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