#1 Seed Watch (long)

Discussion in 'Men’s Basketball' started by KosherHorn, Jan 10, 2008.

  1. KosherHorn

    KosherHorn 250+ Posts

    Hopefully this is a thread that can be revived as the conference season progresses, which would mean Texas still has a shot at this going into February and maybe even March. Right now, UT looks like a solid 2 seed, but that Wisconsin loss is a killer. At 14-1 with only a blemish at Michigan State, Texas could make a legit claim to a #1 seed with UNC, Memphis and Kansas. But, alas, they're on the outside looking in at the moment. Still, a #1 seed looks possible if Texas can do two things:

    1. Go at least 13-3 in conference
    2. Beat Kansas

    That would put UT 26-5 with wins over UCLA, Tennessee and Kansas (plus, presumably, at least one win over A&M). Get to the Finals of the Big XII Tourney, and at 28-5 - and with the MSU and Wisconsin losses coming without Gary Johnson - Texas would have a good case.

    But right now UT needs to cheer for others to lose. At this point, it looks like 8 teams have a legitimate shot at a #1 seed, with two teams pretty much locks barring unforseen collapses:

    1. North Carolina (16-0) - virtual lock, though it could be argued they haven't played the toughest non-conf schedule; first four NCAA games will probably be in Raleigh and Charlotte

    2. Memphis (14-0) - virtual lock with wins over OU, UConn, USC, Arizona, and a big one over Georgetown; a win over Tennessee and they can probably afford to even lose 1-2 games in CUSA; book them as a #1 in Little Rock and Houston

    3. Kansas (15-0) - Lunardi says they're a virtual lock but he ignores the amazingly weak non-conf schedule; they've looked impressive but only wins of any value are at USC and home to Arizona in OT (Boston College just lost at home to Robert Morris and have also losses at home to Providence and UMass); they're a #1 now but they can't afford multiple bad losses in the Big XII. Plus they play at UT and A&M.

    4. UCLA (14-1) - 4th #1 seed would be UT's right now if not for the Wisconsin loss; Bruins have a good road win at Stanford and beat Michigan State neutral

    5. Washington State (13-0) - SOS is really weak because they pulled a Texas from previous years and played way too many RPI 200+ teams, but they have road wins at Baylor, Washington and Gonzaga; they play at UCLA Saturday

    6. Michigan State (14-1) - Texas win and beating BYU in Salt Lake is nice; high RPI because they've only played two teams with an RPI of 200+ (Texas has played six such teams)

    7. Texas (13-2)

    8. Georgetown (12-1) - very much outside looking in with no marquee wins and the only big Big East game at Marquette

    You could perhaps add Duke and Texas A&M. Tennessee looks good but the SEC is really weak, and in reality the Vols don't play good enough D to avoid a bad loss or two. Vanderbilt is undefeated, but that isn't going to last, and they don't have any marquee wins as any backbone for a #1 seed.

    So... if you look at it, if Texas takes care of business there aren't many teams we need to cheer for to lose. Here's a look at the games coming up:

    Thursday:
    Washington State at USC
    Washington at UCLA

    Saturday:
    Washington State at UCLA (yummy)
    Memphis at Marshall
    Michigan State at Iowa
    Texas at Missouri
    Kansas at Nebraska
    UConn at Georgetown
    NC State at North Carolina

    Sunday:
    Virginia at Duke
     
  2. DJDJAJGJ

    DJDJAJGJ 250+ Posts

    Tennessee's victory over Mississippi should boost our RPI a bit.
     
  3. bularry

    bularry 250+ Posts

    I think Tennessee has a decent shot, at least good enough to be mentioned.

    I do agree though that Memphis is a lock and UNC is close to it, although if they had a bad spell in the ACC I could see them losing out to someone else and falling to a #2, but I agree, it isn't likely.
     
  4. hippie

    hippie 25+ Posts

    I believe Duke has a legit shot at a no 1. At least for now. Obviously, they'll have to beat UNC at least once.
     
  5. KosherHorn

    KosherHorn 250+ Posts

  6. JJxvi

    JJxvi 100+ Posts

    What if Texas, A&M, and Kansas all go 13-3?
     
  7. Bob in Houston

    Bob in Houston 2,500+ Posts

    I doubt that any of them would get a No. 1.
     
  8. jimmyjazz

    jimmyjazz 2,500+ Posts

    If Wisconsin can stay ranked, that loss may not be all that bad come tournament time. The fact that it was at home hurts, but they're a solid team.
     
  9. YouDecide

    YouDecide First Time Poster

    I guess it doesn't matter now after
    letting mizzou put 97 on us. [​IMG]
     
  10. Speedway

    Speedway 250+ Posts

    I will be quite happy with a 5 or 6 seed in a regional close enough to travel.
     
  11. KosherHorn

    KosherHorn 250+ Posts


     

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