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Discussion in 'Men’s Basketball' started by Horns11, Dec 3, 2010.
Posted on the football board, but whatever.
Record before the conference tourney. Calling it now.
Will you also call a 1st round exit in the NCAA tournament?
I like the way this team has been playing. Much different attitude and the chemistry is much better. Joseph and Thompson will only get better as the year progress. Thompson is the real deal(looks like a one and done unfortunately). I like what Hamilton has been doing so far this year. Lucas has been a pleasant surprise with his imrproved defense which was lacking last year.
12/05/10 at USC Los Angeles, Calif. 9:30 pm CT Win
12/11/10 vs. Texas State Austin, Texas 3:00 pm CT Win
12/14/10 vs. North Florida Austin, Texas 7:00 pm CT Win
12/18/10 vs. North Carolina Greensboro, N.C. 3:00 pm CT Win
12/22/10 at Michigan State East Lansing, Mich. 6:00 pm CT Loss
12/31/10 vs. Coppin State Austin, Texas 1:00 pm CT Win
01/04/11 vs. Arkansas Austin, Texas 8:00 pm CT Win
01/08/11 vs. Connecticut Austin, Texas 2:30 pm CT Loss
01/11/11 at Texas Tech Lubbock, Texas 6:00 pm CT Win
01/15/11 vs. Oklahoma Austin, Texas 3:00 pm CT Win
01/19/11 vs. Texas A&M Austin, Texas 8:00 pm CT Win
01/22/11 at Kansas Lawrence, Kan. 3:00 pm CT Loss
01/26/11 at Oklahoma State Stillwater, Okla. 6:30 pm CT WIn
01/29/11 vs. Missouri Austin, Texas 8:00 pm CT Win
01/31/11 at Texas A&M College Station, Texas 8:00 pm CT Loss
02/05/11 vs. Texas Tech Austin, Texas 8:00 pm CT Win
02/09/11 at Oklahoma Norman, Okla. 8:00 pm CT WIn
02/12/11 vs. Baylor Austin, Texas 3:00 pm CT Win
02/16/11 vs. Oklahoma State Austin, Texas 8:00 pm CT Win
02/19/11 at Nebraska Lincoln, Neb. 12:45 pm CT Win
02/22/11 vs. Iowa State Austin, Texas 7:00 pm CT Win
02/26/11 at Colorado Boulder, Colo. 3:00 pm CT Win
02/28/11 vs. Kansas State Austin, Texas 8:00 pm CT Loss
03/05/11 at Baylor Waco, Texas 8:00 pm CT Loss
Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship
03/09/11 First Round Games Kansas City, Mo. TBA
03/10/11 Quarterfinals Kansas City, Mo. TBA
03/11/11 Semifinals Kansas City, Mo. TBA
03/12/11 Championship Game Kansas City, Mo. TBA
I love the optimism but I see us more like a 21-10 record and 10-6 in conference.
I see a 20-22 win season and a 4th, or 5th seed in the big dance with a probable second round exit.
We lack a slashing point guard, and need a more consistent jump shooter.
Therefore, around a 20win season and first round tourney win. A good season. Next year could be great depending on who stays from this class.
I agree with rex the Big12 is a big question mark this year. Every ranked team has had some close games against teams they should have won.
Saying we will have a 19 win season is laughable though. We will win at least 12 wins out of conference with only MSU and UCONN being a real test. It is possible that we could split those games, MSU looks vulnerable but we play them their so I don't know how well this young team will handle that game. After that I think 11-5 or 12-4 in the Big12 is very doable. A&M, Tech, Oklahoma, and Okie st. all look very average. Nebraska, Iowa St., and Colorado are bleh. We can split with Baylor. That leaves Missouri (who i think we beat), KSU at home, and away to Kansas.
Over all I'd say 23-24 wins before the tourny, then maybe a 2nd round or sweet 16 exit.
So you think we'll win both home and away for every south division team except Baylor? That's far more laughable than only winning 19 games.
Baylor- will pose some problems
Oklahoma- lost to freakin' Chaminade
Oklahoma State- doesn't look like all that and a bag of chips
Texas A&M- looks like a team full of aggies
Texas Tech- already gotten smoked by some mediocre teams
It's possible to go undefeated in the South with a little luck. Saying that we will beat everyone but Baylor is laughable, is laughable.
Still think we go 9-1 against OU, OK St., A&M, Tech, and Baylor after tonight's performance?
Yes, yes I do. The USC game was a turd in the punchbowl, no doubt. But there were things to like after we got off the 0-fer to start the 2nd half.
Do you enjoy predicting doom and gloom for the team?
If 19-12, bubble team expectations are "gloom and doom" considering some of the obvious issues we have, then call me a gloom'n'doomer.
This is a team learning a new offense with no post presence and no true "threat" at PG, and people are predicting 26-win seasons. If realism is bad, then so be it.
I did not say anything about 26 wins. I said I still think we can realistically go 9-1 against the Big XII South teams, who all have glaring weaknesses of their own.
Now, we may end up 8-2, or 7-3, or 5-5 against them. But as of now, given what all of the South teams have shown so far, I think Baylor and Texas are the best of the bunch, and I think 9-1 is reasonably achievable.
I was thinking 20 wins before USC, now I'm thinking we may need some luck to win 20. Offensive struggles against tough defenses will be the rule, not the exception.
Still should make the March tourney, and maybe win the first round game.
So we now need to go 11-10 to get to the 19-12 prediction?
Yep. I'm standing by it. Heck, I'd be the first to eat crow if I was wrong, because at least that way the team is hopefully doing well.
Just look at who we played tonight and our shooting percentage. Now extrapolate that against a team like KU.
I think it's actually a pretty safe bet that we split "the season" on out.
I don't know how anyone could be "confident" about any of our remaining nonconference games except Coppin State. And even they gave us a run for our money in the 1997 tourney. I'll give us a generous 2-3 record through 1/8.
Then the conference schedule starts, and it's a safe bet to go 9-7 in that. Funny how that was also our record last year when we had 3 current NBA players. Losses to KU, KSU, MU, splits with Baylor and A&M, and 2 games we could have won but didn't (because we have those EVERY season).
Horns11, just to let you know you have company with your pick...I looked at the schedule and did my prediction this morning (without ever knowing about this post). My conclusion was 19 wins...20 possibly.
With this team it's almost impossible to guess a record. We'll probably beat one we shouldn't and lose to a couple we shouldn't.
I say we will make the tourney and lose in the 2nd round. I know, I'm taking the easy way out.
20+ wins is looking more likely all the time.
10 reasons we will win at least 21 by conference tourney:
1) Jordan Hamilton scores at will
2) Coppin St
3) We will certainly go more than 8-8 in the big 12
4) Jordan Hamilton
5) Cory Joseph
6) Defense - opponents are shooting 36% from field
7) FTs - not exactly great but getting better, we are shooting 65% from the line, better than last year.
8) Jordan Hamilton
9) We are a good rebounding team this year
10) I read it in my tea leaves
Reliable free throw shooting should win us a couple, as usual.
Still sticking w/ this?
I'll go ahead and up my prediction. I think we can go 24-25 wins before the BIG12 tourny. I'll call Kansas a loss and @ a&m a loss because i think they will be fired up for revenge. The rest of the BIG12 south schedule looks winnable. Honestly after Kansas and a&m, I'm most worried about @Nebraska and @Colorado which says a lot.
Overall I'll say a sweet-16 should be expected, elite 8 doable, a final 4 is not out of the question, and a possible national title run with a lot of luck and the team absolutely on fire. Also I'll say a 30 win season baring injuries. This team is solid.
Like I said, I'll eat crow. Not afraid of that.
Since we've only played 3 conference games to this point, and all 3 were potential wins in my early prediction, I'm not quite going to back off of the conference record yet.
The more impressive thing about this team is how they handled themselves in the tough nonconf. part. I said 2-3 from the tough Dec.-Jan. stretch, and they went 4-1. I guess that alone is enough to push the prediction to 21-10. The MSU game was huge from a rallying and teamwork standpoint.
Now the problem becomes what happens when conference opponents realize those aforementioned weaknesses (post play and PG) and exploit them. If Thompson gets bottled up, we basically just have to jack up shots from 10+ feet for the whole game, or hope that he can redistribute the ball to someone in motion (which has been tricky for Barnes-coached squads going back to before Texas). And if Joseph/Brown are off one game, that's all it would take to make an easily-winnable conference game very tight or a potential loss.
13 games left. This team is very conservatively, 6-7 over those next 13 games. Even with that type of epic fail, they end up at 21-10.
But.................I just don't see that happening. This team is actually progressing this year game-by-game. 9-4 over the next 13 is looking VERY likely which puts them at 24-7 overall. A borderline 2 seed , solid 3 seed if that ends up being the case.
This is a good team. They actually run a decent offense and are playing good defense again.