Ok all you high school football fans and insiders. I need information! As you all know, realignment is due to come out early February. It's all based on the enrollment numbers the schools took on a day back in October. The UIL will have to set the new cutoffs for the classifications, and figure out the districts. That's the tough part. I believe 5A can have a maximum of 245 schools. UIL has also allowed smaller schools in urban centers petition to move up to 5A to make it easier on travel. I've heard rumors that this won't be allowed this year (which creates big problems in parts of the Valley). They also need to keep districts to a reasonable size. 8 team districts are ideal. 9 and 10 team districts are avoided. Let's take 5A in Central Texas for example. 14-5A in Region 2 currently has: Round Rock Stony Point McNeil Westwood Pflugerville Leander Cedar Park Georgetown Rumors have it (this is where I need information) that both Pflugerville Connally and Vista Ridge will make the jump to 5A this year. A 10-team district will not happen. 25-5A currently has: Bowie Austin High Anderson Akins Westlake Bastrop Seguin San Marcos Rumor has it that Del Valle will make the jump to 5A. San Marcos will drop to 4A. Seguin is on the bubble. Bastrop is in limbo because it's too big to drop to 4A, but out in the middle of nowhere virtually by itself as a 5A. Add: Connally, Vista Ridge and Del Valle Subtract: San Marcos 18 schools (10/8 respectively) Some scenarios that could happen: The Plugerville schools get moved to the Austin district, while Seguin gets moved to a San Antonio or between district (New Braunfels is likely to move up to 5A as well). This would leave districts sized 8/9. A little better, but not ideal. Bastrop could be lumped in with Seguin, New Braunfels and other teams farther south. The travel may really be awful though as that district would likely include San Antonio schools as well as Victoria or some Corpus Christi schools. Georgetown could move in with the Killeen/Bryan/Temple district and leave 14-5A with 9 teams. A little better. But that depends on if Copperas Cove moves back up to 5A and rejoins their old district. If you have any info like reported enrollment numbers, or rumors about moving up or down in classification, let's hear them.
Conally and Hendrickson should both move up, but the PISD supposedly will fight that for some reason. I'm not sure why, but there seems to be a long-standing desire by the PISD for their schools to be in 4A. Part of why Hendrickson was opened was an attempt to reduce the enrollment at PHS down to 4A level... They're already talking about a fourth high school (money was allocated in the last bond election for architectural plans and land acquisition). Personally, I think they're fighting a losing battle if they're really trying to get their schools to a lower classification... Georgetown is supposedly adding a second HS very soon also, like in the next year or two..
I've heard Bastrop is adding a 2nd HS too. But neither Gtown or Bastrop's alignment this year will be affected by those future schools. Hendrickson? They were at 1,290 2 years ago. Do you really think they'll jump to over 2,000?
i heard georgetown wants a "southlake" type deal where they only want 1 high school in the city. it'll be interesting to see how long that lasts. i also heard rrisd was building another high school soon. - why would san marcos drop? i think the last go around, they were with the SA/Converse schools. - i don't see why they won't put seguine with the SA schools. that makes too much geographical sense i guess. - i heard hutto is going to 4A. - i never heard bastrop was building a 2nd high school. hell, that bond never passed to refurbish bastrop high, which pissed lots of people off. - del valle going 5A? how about... del valle bowie austin high westlake san marcos bastrop anderson akins just trade out seguine for del valle as for nothern travis/williamson county, they may have to "create" a district...or someone is gonna have to travel...especially with 4A
Why would San Marcos drop? Because they won't reach the 5A cutoff. They were at 1,990 two years ago and I've heard they haven't changed much. The 5A cutoff is expected to be well above 2,000. That is the district I thought of with Del Valle instead of Seguin, but that would still leave a 10-team district north of town. That just won't fly with the UIL. You're also including San Marcos, which I just don't see staying in 5A. That would make the Austin district only 7 teams, another undesirable number. When the UIL starts creating districts, they start on the outskirts of the state. The Valley and West Texas are harder to district because of travel, so they start there and work towards Central Texas. San Antonio up to Williamson County is the area that gets to be in flux. That's why the Austin schools switch back and forth between Regions 2 and 4.
Lake Travis will move up to 5A in either 2008/9 or 2010/11; it's just a matter of time. Lake Travis and Westlake decided to begin the "Battle of the Lakes" in 2006 in anticipation of this inevitable district matchup. Dripping Springs will accompany Lake Travis. The demographics favor an eventual Hill Country 5A district west of Austin. Currently, Lake Travis is in a 4A district with Dripping Springs, Pflugerville Connally, Hendrickson, Vista Ridge, Burnet, Marble Falls and Lampasas. Two years ago, Lake Travis was in a 4A district with New Braunfels Canyon and New Braunfels.
Hays and Lehman will also move up to 5A, but it might not happen this time around. It almost certainly will happen in 2010.
Pville High reported under 2000 this October, Connally was around 2080, and Henderickson is still way under the cut. I think Pville High will be on the bubble, and will possibly move down to 4A while Connally could possibly replace them in their 5A district.. I think the 3A enrollment will grow to around 1100 and drop area 4a's like Burnet, and Fredericksburg to 3A. Lake Travis still has 4 more seasons of 4A ball before they move up, they are around 1800 this year, and I expect the 2010 cut to be about 2200. I think that Pville High will replace VistaRidge in District25 4A, and VRidge will take the vacant spot left by Pville High in their 5A district. 25 4A. Lake Travis Pville High Connally Henderickson Dripping Springs Marble Falls
It won't happen this time around, but how about this 5-A district three years down the road...the Leander ISD schools (Leander, Cedar Park, Vista Ridge) Lake Travis, Westlake, Dripping Springs, Hays, and San Marcos?
Yep, Leander ISD's adding a new high school, but it will be a while before it's ready for 5-A. If Lehman makes the jump, just drop San Marcos and add Lehman to the mix. There's your westside 5-A district, and a darn tough one at that!
AAA is kind of the oddball classification right now. There's too much competitive imbalance in AAA, and too many way small districts. I look for the dividing line number to move up, but probably not to 1100.
I guess "well above" is relative. To me, it's well above. It's anyone's guess, but I'm seeing most people guess around 2,050. That is really interesting about Pville. I had heard a rumor about them dropping since they were already the smallest in their district, but if they're under 2,000 they might have to. RR Westwood McNeil Stony Point Leander Vista Ridge Cedar Park Pville Connally Gtown I guess a 9-team district COULD work. Maybe Gtown will move like I had suggested and it'd be an 8-team.
The UIL has never had a problem screwing over schools. I went to McCullough (now the Woodlands) and their district has always been lumped into the Dallas Region along with one other district. We've had Lufkin, A&M Consolidated, Bryan, Huntsville, Kingwood, Humble, Spring, the Klein schools, Conroe and others in the district over the past 20 years. What will have to happen is either the UIL will expand the regions or some of those schools (Bastrop for example) will have to start driving 100+ miles for a lot of their games .
The site work has started on teh new HS in LEander ISD -- it is near the 3M plant. Still 2-3 years away, though, and the poster is correct that it will not be 5A to start. There has been some discussion that the school will never have the population to be 5A -- it was mainly built to relieve the pressure on Cedar Park HS (which will be overflowing in a couple of years) and keep those of us in the 2222/620 area from having to drive our kids so far to school. That area keeps growing, so I guess we'll see.
Yep. These schools everyone is saying will move up just can't. There is a max # of 5A's allowed by the UIL. That's 245. They'll just keep moving the cutoff up. I know Dallas Carter will drop to 4A as well as another DISD team. I'm sure some others will too.
HM, while P-ville has been the smallest school in the district for a while, I hadn't heard that they'd lost enrollment. My understanding is that now that PISD has "locked down" their attendance zones, along with new construction in P-ville, PHS will just grow. They had a larger freshman class this year than they've had in a while. As for Hendrickson, I had heard they had actually passed PHS in enrollment this year. Guess I heard wrongly.
Some guy on OB's posted the latest UIL projections according to his inside sources Pville Georgetown Connally Bastrop RRMcNeil RR RR Westwood RR Stony Point *************************************** Leander Vista Ridge Cedar Park Westlake Anderson Akins Austin Bowie ****************************************** Interesting to say the least.
Oh get over it with the travel Part. (This is in response to Bastrop). Del Rio out in West Texas is a 5A high school, and there is only 1 other 5A school within a 2 hour radius. They have to travel to San Antonio to play every other week. Deal with it. They have for decades.
Someone mentioned the big disparity in 3A. Well there's also one in 5A, because you start at 2000, but the top end is opem, with some quite literally huge schools at that top end. Is there any chance they'll reconfigure from 3A on up to at least try to even out the disparity? I don't know how feasable it is, but is bumping more low-end 5A's down to 4A, and upper-end 3A's into 4A a real possibility? I know 3A has the biggest swing from small to large schools, this could maybe even out the gap, though 4A might become the "big gap" level if that happens. Texas really needs a 6A, but there just aren't enough big schools close enough together to make that feasable. Not yet anyway.
