2018 Senate (& House)

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by Joe Fan, Mar 22, 2017.

  1. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    LOL -- the kiss of death?

     
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  2. UTChE96

    UTChE96 1,000+ Posts

    Maybe he is a Republican sock.
     
  3. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Latest Quinnipiac Texas

    Cruz (R) 54%
    O’Rourke (D) 45%


    This polling reflects my own anecdotal observations in my hood. You might recall that I have a Beto organizer living within a one block radius. He has been one of the chief suppliers of the yardsigns for this side of town. His house is on my dog walk route. Late afternoons have been a beehive of activity there. Women pull up 3-4-5 cars at at time, either proudly striding to his door, or just chillin by the cars, some of which had out-of-state plates and were full of signs and bumper stickers. Ive chatting them up several times, usually because they want to pet the doggies.

    But there has been a noticeable change since Kavanaugh. The ladies do not visit near as much. There are no more chat sessions outside by the cars. No more dominant power-struts to his door. This happened concurrently with the arrival of the Cruz yardsigns. It looks like maybe the Dem money people pulled them and sent them to another state where they have a better chance.

    Dems have spent at least $30M on this race, probably more.
     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2018
  4. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    I wonder how many liberal media types regret hitching their wagons to that guy? There were plenty of warning signs, they just chose to ignore them.
     
  5. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  6. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Literally for decades, Beltway Republicans have been telling us Hispanics would never vote for a non-amnesty-supporting Republican.
    They even had a special phrase for it -- they called it "a threshold issue."

     
  7. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
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  8. Hollandtx

    Hollandtx 250+ Posts

    Why is Ted Cruz not doing the Town Hall with O'Rourke?
    Is he worried it will be Nixon/Kennedy part 2? I think Cruz can hold his own in a debate or a town hall, so I find this curious.
    Do y'all know something I don't?
     
  9. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Cruz offered to do 5 debates with Beto
     
  10. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  11. Hollandtx

    Hollandtx 250+ Posts

    JoeFan, I know. That's why I find it odd that he isn't doing the town hall.
    I know one debate of the 3 agreed upon was cancelled due to weather, do they still have one left?
     
  12. theiioftx

    theiioftx 2,500+ Posts

    Living in Tennessee, Bredesen scares me because I hear many republicans say, "he was a great mayor and governor." Maybe he was, but if elected, he will not be running the Democrats, Schumer will be. Thankfully, Blackburn has expanded her lead.
     
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  13. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Exactly Cruz wanted 5 debates
    Settled for 3
    One already happened
    The Sept 30th was postponed due to confirmation
    There is another Sept 16th
    There is no way would I let CNN handle anything for me if I were Cruz
     
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  14. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  15. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Most incumbents in Texas refuse any debates. Cruz is unusual in this regard. He loves debate.

    I dont know the story on the townhall. Maybe he saw a 12-point lead and decided to play it safe?
     
  16. Monahorns

    Monahorns 1,000+ Posts

    O'Rourke latest tv commercial is so farcical. He is responding to the Cruz commercial saying he is against the oil and gas industry by saying voters shouldn't let such rhetoric scare them into voting for Cruz. O"Rourke doesn't even try to deny any of it. He implicitly admits Cruz's statements but says you should vote for him anyway. What a putz.
     
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  17. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 5,000+ Posts

    It's a 70 percent Hispanic district, but it's only D+5. That means a lot of those Hispanics are Cubans. Shalala isn't a good candidate for that kind of district. She's white, old, elite, and has been a political insider for decades. Salazar is Hispanic, well-spoken, and has been in the area for a while. Oh yeah, and she's hot.
     
  18. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    How did Trump lose by 20?
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2018 at 7:16 AM
  19. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    This stuff happens in my own subdivision. I have a neighbor about 2 blocks away who had Trump signs out from the R-primaries. I remember walking by his house after the day after the election to congratulate him. He wasnt there and I also noticed his Trump yard sign was gone. I was always curious why he took it down so soon.

    Months went by before I ever caught him outside at a time I remembered to ask that question. Turns out he did not pull it himself, it was stolen. I was a little surprised since this is a pretty quiet neighborhood. It's almost all owner-occupants, people know each other. He told me it was the 5th sign stolen from his yard! I had no idea. But wait, that's not all. He caught the thief one time. Saw a man yank it and toss it into the gutter. Guess who it was? His best friend! From two doors down! These two guys had known each other forever. You have to wonder what makes an adult US citizen think its OK to do that. If it were a 14-year-old, people would laugh and shake their heads. But this was a 50-60 year old solid citizen with an advanced degree.

    It is sort of a chicken or the egg question. Is it joining the Dems that makes them crazy? Or, are they crazy first which is what makes the Dem Party attractive to them?



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  20. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Arizona Senate:

    Kyrsten Sinema (D) 44%
    Martha McSally (R) 44%

     
  21. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

  22. Sangre Naranjada

    Sangre Naranjada Liquor Man

     
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  23. Horn6721

    Horn6721 10,000+ Posts

    Why is that whacko Sinema doing so well in Az?
     
  24. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 5,000+ Posts

    I'm no expert on that district's politics, but I do know it has a large Cuban population and that Trump didn't do very well with Cubans (at least by Republican standards). Link. If the white vote in that district has a lot of "woke" liberals, it wouldn't surprise me if a subpar performance among Cubans could force him to lose the district pretty resoundingly even if the PVI isn't that unfavorable. Obviously Trump overperformed in plenty of districts, but he underperformed in plenty as well.
     
  25. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Thats hilarious but I'm not certain its legal in Texas
    For example, its illegal to have a loaded gun trigger tied to your doorknob set to blast anyone who walks through
    And, so with this sign, what if the irrigation had just gone off and the grass was wet? Would that make it a potentially deadly device? I dont know the answer
    But its still funny
     
  26. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    I dont get why Cubans are anti-Trump? I wonder if this still holds today? Seems like maybe not based on those polls. Or, maybe its all because ....

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  27. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    So Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) suggested that she didn’t listen to North Dakotans on her Kavanaugh vote because she has better judgement than them


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  28. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts



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  29. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 5,000+ Posts

    A few reasons.

    First, it's becoming a swing state, and Trump carried it but not very decisively. He won by less than 4 points and failed to reach 50 percent. (Romney and McCain won it by more like 9 points.) No Republican is going to win Arizona as easily as they used to.

    Second, Sinema isn't running as a whacko. She's running as a moderate, and the media is helping her do it. (See Beto O'Rourke.) Furthermore, she's at least superficially a good candidate. She's reasonably well-spoken and intelligent, and sometimes she's hot.

    Third, a lot of Republicans in Arizona are dumbasses who tried to "pull a Christine O'Donnell" and throw away the seat. McSally had to piss away a lot of time, effort, and money to defeat two horrifically bad candidates in the primary, and that always damages the eventual winner. Sinema only had token opposition, whom she effortlessly defeated.

    What's sad is that McSally is a better candidate than Sinema is. Without the primary challenge, she wouldn't rout Sinema, but she'd probably win reasonably comfortably. Instead, it's a nail-biter that the GOP could very easily lose.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2018 at 8:41 AM
  30. Mr. Deez

    Mr. Deez 5,000+ Posts

    Probably the same reason plenty of people are anti-Trump. However, I think there is also a factor that's bigger than Trump. As time passes, I think Cubans in Florida are starting to accept the permanent rule of a Marxist-Leninist regime in Cuba and that they are permanent immigrants to the United States and not Cuban refugees anymore. Accordingly, they probably have less and less concern for Cuban affairs, and it makes sense. Suppose the Castro regime did get overthrown. Do Cuban Americans in Florida really have any expectation of returning to Cuba and having the land that Castro stole from them (or more likely, stolen from their grandparents) returned? I don't think many do.

    It pays to be hot.
     

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