2019-20 outlook

Discussion in 'Men’s Basketball' started by 22Horn, Sep 9, 2019.

  1. 22Horn

    22Horn 250+ Posts

    For you experts, with a roster that includes only 1 senior, what is the expectation for next year or so?
     
  2. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life 5,000+ Posts

    I'm no expert other than what my eyes have seen the last three years. I'd be surprised if we end the season at .500 or better this year. I'll put the O/U at 15.5 wins.

    With powerhouses like McNeese, Northern Colorado, Prairie View, UAB, High Point, Cal Baptist & Central Michigan on the schedule I think Shaka tried to build in 7 wins guaranteed this year before the season even starts so if we end up below 16 wins that tells you how bad of a situation we are in.

    If we go .500 in the other non conference games we're at 10 wins, but I'll take a shot and say we blow one extra game so we end at 9-4 in non conference. That leaves us only 7 conference wins away from hitting the 16 mark and I don't believe this coaching staff has enough gumption to win 7 conference games this year.

    Edit: My 15.5 O/U is the record before post season.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2019
  3. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    Yeah what he said. I'm saying 8-5 in nonconference and I'm concerned that we'll probably end up "8-8 ish" in conference. I'm doubting that the Big XII will be a great powerhouse in basketball this season, but either way, we're still kind of an NIT style team. Decent but with poor coaching and execution all around. We basically have the personnel for a small ball team but with no small ball players right now.

    Yaklich will help us improve our overall defensive numbers, but I think we lost way too much on the other side of the ball to help our record overcome it.

    We're going to see a steady stream of Coleman and Ramey pushing the ball into the offensive end with little plan and then dish it to Febres as an out. It will work sometimes but not as often as it won't work. If Drew Jones is healthy, he'll play, but I'm reserving judgment for how much he'll contribute. If he plays like he did post-HS injury when he was a senior and we finally get to see the "real" Jones, we'll be a tournament team. But that's a ****-ton to ask.

    Sims and Liddell will be our first group of bigs to play, but my guess is that Baker will steal more and more minutes just because of his presence on the defensive end and Smart bringing in help to keep the opponents from racking up points as quickly. The jury's out on whether he's going to play full speed on offense. I didn't see anything out of Hepa last year or any news over the summer that he'll have an increased role. Same for Hamm... he'll be depth at forward.

    Out of the newcomers, I really like Donovan Williams. He reminds me of a skinnier PJ Tucker... he just has a nose for the ball and gets offensive boards at a rate which is just odd for a tweener. I'm hoping he can play defense like Tucker and do "just enough" on offense to contribute.

    The opening roster against Northern Colorado will be veteran heavy, but by midseason, here's my ranking of the number of minutes each position will see:

    Guards:
    Coleman
    Ramey
    Febres
    Williams
    Jones**

    Forwards:
    Baker
    Sims
    Liddell
    Hamm
    Jones
    Hepa
    Cunningham
     
  4. Htown77

    Htown77 5,000+ Posts

    Our ceiling is repeating as NIT champions and establishing an NIT dynasty.
     
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  5. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    I’m all in for Shaka. This is the year we turn it all around. Rah rah rah!
     
  6. sbmcruise

    sbmcruise 100+ Posts

    With the terrible home schedule who cares.
     
  7. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    I would not mind a team that could shoot well, for once

     
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    Last edited: Sep 23, 2019
  8. txlandagent

    txlandagent 500+ Posts

    This. Mark the tape.
     
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  9. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    Even if the team is the "best shooting," because we made the most 3-pointers in the conference last year, what did that prove? That we shoot a lot of threes and still lose?

    UVA and Texas Tech made the national championship, and they were #92 and #108 in three pointers made.

    If this is really what Smart is touting going into 2019-20, instead of improved defense, smarter guard play, improved rebounding from the forwards, smarter shot selection from Febres, Baker manning the paint like a boss, and KU having a NCAA violation cloud hanging over their heads making the conference a wide-open race, then we should start passing around the boot for the buyout now.
     
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  10. MajesticII

    MajesticII 1,000+ Posts

    If we don't improve I see CDC swinging the axe....We are building a multi-million dollar complex, and Chris believes in selling tickets and filling the arena.. That isn't happening if our men's and women's programs don't start putting up Ws and challenging for conference titles. Aston could find herself on the hot-seat if she doesn't start closing the gap on Baylor. She doesn't have to actually take Baylor down, but she has to start putting pressure on them soon as a close second.
     
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  11. Htown77

    Htown77 5,000+ Posts

    The sad thing with Smart is, I do not think anyone feels Texas Women's Basketball is where it should be, yet it is lightyears ahead of where the Men's program is at. The women have 3 sweet sixteens and an elite 8 and Smart has 0 NCAA tournament wins. Smart is currently projected to miss the NCAA tournament all together for the 3rd time in 5 years.
     
  12. Htown77

    Htown77 5,000+ Posts

    Texas has not won an NCAA Tournament game in 5 seasons (1 with Barnes and 4 with Smart). Neither Rick Barnes nor Tom Penders ever had more than a 2 year drought. This is our first 3, 4 or 5 year drought since the late 1980s under Kaiser Bob, our last coach to never win an NCAA Tournament game.

    I will also note Barnes had a 3 year drought from his last year at Texas through his first 2 years at a worse Tennessee program. However, Barnes has won at least 1 NCAA Tournament game the last 2 seasons.

    If Shaka fails to make the NCAA Tournament this year, making it 5 years without an NCAA Tournament win, he has to be fired.... right?

    I know that Kaiser Bob got a full 6 seasons without an NCAA Tournament win before he was fired... but do we really want to wait that long?
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2019
  13. caryhorn

    caryhorn 5,000+ Posts

    ^^^Reminds me of how ineffectual this program has been. :facepalm:
     
  14. HoffHorn

    HoffHorn 100+ Posts

    Vegas has set the win total at 18.5. Dear Lord, another .500 season!

    If We could see any kind of an offensive strategy, I’d be thrilled beyond words because until now, Shaka has shown me ZERO as it relates to spreading the floor or have a 3 point threat.

    And full disclose, I was thrilled with this hire!

    Signed,

    Disgruntled HoffHorn
     
  15. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life 5,000+ Posts

    Does that include post season? If its regular season take the under and bet the house. Unless we get 4 upsets without blowing an easy one I dont see how we get there. I suppose the team might get hot, but I've never seen a Shaka coached Texas team get better toward the end of the season.
     
  16. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    Smart didn't know what he was getting. He inherited a program known for boring offense and sending one-and-dones on an annual basis. It was a vastly different system than VCU, and he had no plans to "adapt" an institution like Texas to what worked for him elsewhere. He thought he could roll in, keep what was working in Austin, and just coach them up.
     
  17. caryhorn

    caryhorn 5,000+ Posts

    have not seen the "coaching up" part of the plan as yet.:whiteflag:
     
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  18. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life 5,000+ Posts

    It seems like you're right, but I dont recall any university firing a coach hoping the next coach would do the same thing. The sad part is that since the football season is such a dumpster fire right now I'm not sure anyone will pay attention to just how bad the basketball team is this year. When does his contract expire?

    Edit: We're stuck with him until 2023 owing $12.9 million in guaranteed money. Geez, we could keep him this year and next and still owe him over $6 million for a buyout. Guess I should just not look for a few years.
     
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  19. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    Yeah we're definitely stuck with him unless he leaves on his own accord to take over another D-I program. Which seems a lot more likely than us firing him and owing him more than Chuck Strong got in the buyout. Maybe he understands the frustrations and has no roadmap to work out of the bind that we're in... other than just bolting and finding a similarly-paying gig elsewhere. His own agent was the one shopping the idea that Michigan was looking at him, despite the fact that Smart was interviewing Yaklich two weeks before that.

    Yes, but I think Patterson was kind of hoping that he would bring the HAVOC with him. I think we all were. Texas has some pretty serious limitations in order to be able to run that kind of defense (like... recruiting guards). I think we bought in to the idea that Smart + HAVOC + Texas' skill level + Big 12 being weak at the time = success. Instead, all we got was Smart (not the adjective, the person).
     
  20. LonghornCatholic

    LonghornCatholic Romantic Catholic

  21. Vol Horn 4 Life

    Vol Horn 4 Life 5,000+ Posts

    Someone quickly call Belmont! That banner doesn't have much room left for all our future NIT appearances in the next 4 years. Poor planning on their part.
     
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  22. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    I'm bucking the trend around these parts. I'm all in for Shaka.

    Shaka led us to tournament victory last year when this team finally came together late. Sure it was the NIT (No Interest Tournament), but it's chock full of pretty good/decent teams, and we ran the table. He knows how to win. This year we'll surprise -- in a positive way. The backcourt should be outstanding. The frontcourt should be adequate/good enough. If Sims really comes on, it will be a lot better than good enough, and Baker can bring down the boards. We finally developed some team chemistry, and I think this team is solidly behind their coach. We're probably looking at a 2nd round, or even Sweet Sixteen sort of year. That's good.
     
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  23. ViperHorn

    ViperHorn 5,000+ Posts

    I hope you are right Chop. Winning something does beat going out in the first round. Shaka gives great interviews and as far I can tell he knows the game. It just hasn't clicked for him at Texas.
     
  24. Horns11

    Horns11 5,000+ Posts

    Winning the NIT is on the same level as winning a November nonconference tournament. I'd much rather lose a first round NCAA tournament game than plow through teams ranked between #40-90 without our best player.

    I haven't seen anything yet that shows we're a Sweet 16 team. We don't have Roach's scoring ability, although losing his doghouse headcasedness might be seen as a pick-me-up. If Jones can provide depth, I'm on board with a general improvement from the guards, especially on the defensive side. We haven't seen enough out of Hepa, Liddell, etc. to make a judgment about whether the frontcourt will be good enough, but if Baker supplants everyone for playing time, that's not necessarily a good thing.
     
  25. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
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  26. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    I caught the last 8m vs. Purdue
    We kept our cool down the stretch, coming from behind on the road before a good crowd, hitting a lot of free throws, to knock off No. 23 by 70-66
     
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  27. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
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  28. mchammer

    mchammer 5,000+ Posts

    Good call
     
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  29. Chop

    Chop 2,500+ Posts

    I’m all in for Shaka and Tom, and have been all along. I could be wrong (on either or both), but I’m more patient than most.
     
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  30. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

     
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