2019 Prediction Contest Rules

Discussion in 'On The Field' started by Dionysus, Sep 4, 2019.

  1. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    Posting this as a reference for those who may not have kept up with the discussion on other threads.

    Each week there is a prediction thread for the upcoming game. Post your prediction and it will be entered into a spreadsheet with all the others, and after the game I will post everyone’s result for that game. The table below is an example of what will be posted weekly.

    * If you post a score and then change it later, send me a PM to let me know it has changed — otherwise I may not know you have updated your prediction.
    * Post ONE score only. If you post different predictions based on whether Sam is starting or not, or some other contingency thing, I will not enter any score for you.

    CONTEST RULES

    1. You must have a minimum of nine predictions entered to qualify for the season prediction championship. There are twelve regular season games so this will accommodate anyone who misses a few picks.
    2. If you pick the wrong winner a penalty of 20 points will be added to your delta score for that game.
    3. At the end of the season we take your average delta for the year and that is your season score. Lowest score wins.
    4. We will drop your worst (highest) weekly delta and average the rest.
    5. Weekly winners and scores will be announced on the prediction results thread after each game.
    6. Bowl game will have its own contest, separate from the regular season. If we are in the Conference Championship game we may just include that with the regular season.

    SCORING METHODOLOGY & SAMPLE SCORING TABLE

    The Delta column is the calculated number based on how close the pick was for three data points:

    1. Texas’ predicted score and reality
    2. Opponent’s predicted score and reality
    3. Difference between predicted and actual spread

    Lower delta indicates the more accurate prediction. Picking the final score exactly would result in a delta of zero.

    In this example Texas won 45-14.


    HFTEXASLA TECHDelta
    2003TexasGrad382434
    4th_floor66756
    AC442422
    BevoJoe362540
    FINAL SCORE
    45 TX
    14 La Tech
    ---
    31 (spread)

    BevoJoe’s prediction:
    36 TX
    25 La Tech
    ---
    11 (spread)

    His delta calc is 9+11+20 = 40
    (winner points diff) + (loser points diff) + (spread diff)
     
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2019
  2. NJlonghorn

    NJlonghorn 1,000+ Posts

    To clarify -- if you pick Team A to win by 7 and in fact Team B wins by 7, that's a delta of 14 plus a penalty of 20, for an adjusted spread delta of 34, right?

    I'm just looking to foreclose the argument that the player in that example guessed the spread correctly, and should only face the 20-point penalty.
     
  3. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    If you guess a seven point Texas win and it turns out to be a seven point Texas loss, I would argue you did not guess the spread correctly because it turned out to be a -14 swing. The spread being a relative vs absolute number, I guess is another way to say it.
     
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  4. NJlonghorn

    NJlonghorn 1,000+ Posts

    I agree 100%. I just wanted it to be in writing so some aggie can't make the argument.
     
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  5. Dionysus

    Dionysus Cocky + Relaxed Admin

    Contest Champion(s) gets one of these sweet Yetis as well as some HF mouse pads and wristbands. Hot swag y’all!

    yeti.jpg
     
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