2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

Discussion in 'West Mall' started by ProdigalHorn, Dec 6, 2018.

  1. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    relying on media polls =
    [​IMG]
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Texas update

    [​IMG]
     
    • Like Like x 1
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2020
  3. Horn2RunAgain

    Horn2RunAgain 500+ Posts

    I think we win Florida, maybe by 4. I'm just posting existing data
     
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  4. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Another factor in AZ is that weed is on the ballot
    This is one place the youth vote will actually be up
    The libertarian will pull some votes (Jo Jorgensen)
    But today Trump turned Maricopa County, so he has a good shot

    (you might recall media originally told us AZ was Biden+10, lol)
     
    • Like Like x 2
  5. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Agree Rs+4
     
  6. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Now Rs +451,715 early in person
    Overall Dem lead down to +183,218
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2020
  7. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

     
    • Like Like x 1
  8. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    This tweeter got **** on by commenters but Trump is winning or within MOE (3.5%) for all the red states.

     
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  9. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    By Election Day, a 3% shift to Trump in votes from the polls will give Trump the win.
     
  10. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    I can see a 2% improvement in Trump in 2020 vs 2016. If so, Trump would likely win NV-NH-MN and tie the populate vote. That would be 33 states.
     
  11. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  12. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Red Bull and vodka
     
  13. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    @Mr. Deez I prefer the black vote vs the loony college educated suburban mom.



     
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  14. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Obviously not a done deal, but who predicted 25% black vote for Trump? Who?
     
  15. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    The EV in North Carolina in 2016 was 70% white
    So far in 2020, it is 73% white
    In addition, among white voters there, the non-college-educated whites represent 44.5% of the vote (they were only 30% in 2016)
    Translation, the Trump base is motivated and voting

    A similar pattern can be seen in both Florida and Nevada
     
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    Last edited: Oct 29, 2020
  16. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Who said a positive shift in 70% of the population is better than a negative shift in 15% of the population (i.e., loony woman segment)? Who??!
     
  17. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Does anyone understand how a populist politician gets elected? Anyone? Bueller?
     
  18. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    In the 2018 midterms, in North Carolina and Florida, 17% of voters were "non-affiliated."
    Trump's rally's have been getting ~31% “not Rs.”
    Conclusion, he is pulling in independents
     
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  19. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Colorado
    The Dem EV lead was 30 points last week
    Now down to 7.6 (or about 160k votes)
     
  20. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Okay I checked the modeled EV results by party from the target smart website. In ALL battleground states, the pattern is the same: 3 weeks out Dems expand to a lead (of varying size); 2 weeks out, Dem and Rep vote at similar levels; 1 week out, Rep close gap with Dem or pulls ahead.

    Regardless of absolute accuracy of the target smart model, the trends are likely correct. The Dems are running out of voters. If GOP wins Election Day, they win the race.
     
    • Like Like x 1
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2020
  21. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Yes there will be a certain type of GOP voters crossing over to Biden. This is why the black and Hispanic vote is important for Trump (to offset the loss).
     
  22. Joe Fan

    Joe Fan 10,000+ Posts

    Nevada
    It looks like the Dem EV lead is down to ~60.5k
    https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054

    The Trump people say their internals show their #s are up since 2016 with blacks, Hispanics and Mormons (even though they may not have necessarily changed their registration). In 2016, "other" got 28k+ (which were probably mostly Mormons voting for McMullen). Also Gary Johnson got 37k+. In addition, the casino industry in Clark County is now less 6,000 service workers (who were mostly Ds). Lastly, they also have some type of weed vote going on which nobody knows the effect of.

    Trump lost 2016 by 27k. In 2020, he is getting a real surge from rural voters in Nevada.
    Conclusion - Trump has a better shot this time

    This was 2016. Clark County the big one
    [​IMG]
     
    • Like Like x 1
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2020
  23. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    No guarantee that the Vegas vote goes to Biden. Dems assuming same support within Dem party despite lockdown Biden for president. If 5% of Vegas shift their vote to Trump, he wins.
     
  24. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

  25. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Senate looking better for GOP (thanks to Trump).
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  26. Horn6721

    Horn6721 Half of seeming clever is keeping your mouth shut.

    Nv is an example of Libertarians throwing their vote away.
    If even most of the 37k who voted for Johnson had voted for Trump??
    This time is just as stark a contrast to how America is viewed
    Trump's view? Or Biden 's?
     
  27. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    COMING IN HOT!!!!

     
    • Like Like x 3
  28. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    @Mr. Deez Polls are tightening. Note some outfits stopped polling one week out from election, giving them plausible deniability.

     
  29. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Note Trump probably wins EC at Biden +3 nationally.
     
  30. mchammer

    mchammer 10,000+ Posts

    Never heard of this poll

     

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