Arizona
If you looked at the posts above about North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia, you saw early voting statistics showing that
early turnout is whiter, older, and less college educated than in 2016. Which is not reflected in the polls the media likes to tout.
Unfortunately not all states give us these same details, but Arizona does and it is following the same trajectory
2016 CNN exit polling in Arizona showed:
75% white electorate
35% were whites w/o a college degree
40% were white with a college degree
2020 Arizona (from TargetSmart)
81% white early vote electorate (so far)
52% are whites w/o a college degree
28% are whites with a college degree
The increases of this group in 2020 over 2016 in AZ is the same pattern as is happening now in North Carolina, Virg and Colorado (as shown above).
This is Trump's base turning out
And it is not how the media polls were modeled
This will be a story in the post-election analysis, but the national media has not yet figured it out.
Click to expand...